Today Russia is the main obstacle on the way to the resolution of the situation in the South Caucasus, said famous Russian political scientist and chairman of the Islamic Committee of Russia Heydar Jamal, speaking about the supply of arms to Armenia by Russia free of charge. He said if not for Moscow the Karabakh conflict could have been settled long ago.
“Russia is an anti-guarantor, owing to which there are still conflicts around Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Armenia is unable to exist with the today’s population reduced to a million, a political crisis in powers and with the weak economy.
If not for the Russian support to Armenia the issue of existence of the Armenian state would be closed. But Moscow benefits from preservation and supporting Armenian state in order to put pressure on Azerbaijan. South Ossetia and Abkhazia are the same lever of pressure on Georgia.
Baku can not propose an alternative to Moscow. The Kremlin realizes that if the Karabakh conflict is settled in Azerbaijan’s favor, the presence of Russia in the South Caucasus will be questioned, for Baku will not need continuation of relations with Moscow. Therefore, Russia puts a stake on the preservation of the pre-war state and continuation of the policy of occupation of Azerbaijani lands. This is the only way for Moscow to preserve “a note in the closing door”.
According to Jamal, as soon as the crisis damages Russia’s ability to hold an external policy game and support Armenians, the topic of Nagorno Karabakh will be closed. It will occur in March, he said.
“In the near future, the Kremlin will try to preserve its presence in the South Caucasus by a stiff game and double standards. In the long-term perspective this will lead to Russia’s complete withdrawal from the Caucasus”, said Cemal.
He noted that in a response to this obviously destabilizing fact in the Russian-Azerbaijani relations, Azerbaijan needs to interfere actively with the political processes in Russia.
“We see how active the Armenian lobby in Russia is. Azerbaijan needs to penetrate into the Russian media and public policy area.
Azerbaijan has chosen a union with the US-Israeli tandem against the relations with Islamic world. At the same time, the US-Israeli tandem is absolutely uninterested in the resolution of the Karabakh conflict like Russia. Moscow is a third component of this tandem, concluding the triangle and opposition to big Europe. In Russia the empirist class is closely bound to Israel, while money are preserved in the United States.
On the whole, Russia is the former great superpower and it is in a stable forwarder with the United States. It is impossible to speak about Russia’s policy notwithstanding the United States.
If Azerbaijan could have conducted a more balanced policy oriented on Europe and the Islamic world and China, the maneuvers could have been more effective and tougher pressure could be put on Moscow.
It is necessary to reject a number of liberal-democratic illusions, connected with the liberal pro-American establishment. For this purpose it is necessary to foresee the future, as Israel and Russia are not long-term factors as subjects of international area. They are doomed to be in growing isolation despite their maneuvers, owing to the United States.
And those who stake on the preservation of multi-polarity under the US auspices, will sooner or later understand that they have a bad choice.