Global power dynamics have never been static; throughout history, empires have risen, peaked, and then entered periods of decline. What is happening today is being recorded in history as the newest and most striking link in this cycle. Following the approximately thirty-year hegemony of the unipolar system that began with the end of the Cold War, an irreversible fracture is now occurring in international relations. Especially recently, the maneuvers of Iran and the Axis of Resistance in the region have inflicted an unexpected defeat on the US and Israel, not only militarily but also politically, economically, and diplomatically. This defeat has a unique character and justifies all discussions about the reshaping of the global system.
The Middle East stands out as the geography where this transformation is most intensely experienced. Events such as the September 11 attacks, the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, the Arab Spring process, and finally the October 7 operation have been milestones deepening the region’s instability. However, the defining development has been the multi-dimensional victory of Iran and the Axis of Resistance against the US-Israel front. This victory has not been limited to military successes on the ground; it has been integrated with military, political, economic, and diplomatic blows directed at the US and Israel from all around the world. Today, America’s global patronage is being questioned, and Israel is suffering the heaviest reputational loss in its history.
The internal disintegration within the Western world completes this picture. The deep disagreements emerging in the relations between European countries and the United States show that the Western bloc is no longer as homogeneous as it once was. The chasms over energy policies, security strategies, and economic interests have created irreparable cracks in transatlantic relations. Tensions within NATO strengthen assessments that the alliance is fundamentally shaken, and comments about Europe and the US entering a divorce process are increasingly gaining supporters.
Developments in the Gulf region present one of the most concrete indicators of this entire transformation. Despite the American military presence and guarantees in the region, Gulf countries are increasingly pursuing an independent line. The defeat the US is experiencing in the Gulf is comparable in nature to its historic debacle in Vietnam. Similarly, a much heavier version of Israel’s 2000 withdrawal from Lebanon is manifesting on all fronts today. Israel has become a country hiding underground day and night, living in fear.
All these developments reveal the reality that imperialism and Zionism have lost politically, militarily, diplomatically, economically, and strategically. There is no longer any possibility of hiding this defeat; the world public is personally witnessing the humiliation of the US and Israel and the shattering of their prestige. The emerging new picture shows that the transition from a unipolar world to a multipolar and just order is inevitable, and confirms that the Axis of Resistance is one of the most important actors in this process.
Geopolitical and Military Dynamics: The Heavy Defeat of the US and Israel
The military and strategic maneuvers of Iran and the Axis of Resistance in the region have a character that completely transcends classical war doctrines. Iran’s direct and indirect actions have been integrated with military blows directed at the US from all around the world, especially from Europe, not just Israel. Attacks on US military bases in the region, missiles targeting warships in the Red Sea, operations on US facilities in Iraq and Syria have revealed how vulnerable the US military is. The US’s ineffectiveness and indecisiveness in the face of these attacks show that its deterrence capacity has completely collapsed.
The situation on the Israeli front presents an even more dire picture. The October 7 operation showed the world the bankruptcy of Israel’s intelligence, military, and defense systems. The piercing of the Iron Dome, the neutralization of border security systems, and the unpreparedness of the Israeli army for war have revealed how fragile this country is. With Iran’s direct attack, Israel experienced the biggest security crisis in its history; the violation of its airspace, and the missile and drone attacks led to a state of complete panic. Israel has now become a country hiding underground, fleeing to shelters, and breathing in fear both day and night.
Despite the unconditional military support the US provides to Israel, it has been seen that this support means nothing on the ground. The aircraft carriers, warships, and military units the US sent to the region could neither protect Israel nor limit the operational capacity of the Axis of Resistance. The US army, defined as the world’s largest military power, has become almost helpless in the fight against proxy forces; the fear of direct engagement has tied Washington’s hands. This situation has once again proven that military superiority alone means nothing, and that will and strategic patience are the real determinants.
The Gulf region has turned into a Vietnam-style debacle for the US. Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE, despite US security guarantees, have developed diplomatic and economic relations with Iran and the Axis of Resistance and have begun to question the US military presence in the region. US military bases in the Gulf are no longer centers of power projection; on the contrary, they have become symbols of US vulnerability. The normalization process of Gulf countries with Iran is the clearest sign that the US is even losing its allies in the region.
The military successes of the Axis of Resistance have not been limited to the defense domain; they have also paralyzed the offensive capacity of the US and Israel. Israel’s operations in Gaza have not achieved the expected military success; on the contrary, they have caused the Israeli army to suffer heavy losses and become completely isolated in the international arena. Hezbollah’s threat on the northern border, the Houthis’ operations against commercial ships in the Red Sea, resistance groups in Iraq and Syria targeting US bases have eliminated the possibility of concentrating on a single front and have dragged the US and Israel into a multi-front war. This multi-front war has exhausted all the resources of the enemy and driven it into a strategic impasse.
Political and Diplomatic Reflections: US-Israel Friendship is Decreasing, the World is Changing
One of the most prominent effects of the changes in the international system is the rapid erosion of political and diplomatic support for the US and Israel. Diplomatic blows directed at the US and Israel from all around the world show how isolated these two countries have become internationally. Resolutions against the US and Israel adopted in the UN General Assembly and Security Council reveal that not only the non-Western world but also countries within the West are moving away from these two countries. Despite US vetoes, the near-unanimity of the international community in resolutions condemning Israel is proof of how weak the West’s hand has become.
The deep divisions emerging in relations between European countries and the US show that the transatlantic alliance is fundamentally shaken. European countries such as France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Ireland, and Norway have taken decisions to suspend or restrict arms sales to Israel, have taken steps towards recognizing the Palestinian state, and have called for ceasefires. This situation has caused diplomatic tensions between the US administration and its European allies; some European countries have begun to openly criticize US Middle East policies. It is now clear that US influence over Europe is broken, and Europe is taking steps to define its own strategic interests.
The creaking within NATO seriously threatens the future of the alliance. Although French President Macron’s statement that “NATO is experiencing brain death” was temporarily pushed into the background by the pandemic and the Ukraine war, the underlying problems have not been resolved but have deepened. European countries are increasingly uncomfortable being under the US security umbrella, and the concept of European Strategic Autonomy is gaining more and more supporters. The US’s “pivot to Asia” strategy has reduced Europe to a secondary priority; this has strengthened the discourse of “self-determination” and “strategic independence” in Europe. Comments that Europe and the US are entering a divorce process are no longer a marginal view but have become central to mainstream discussions.
The rise of Global South countries and their growing self-confidence against the West are reinforcing the diplomatic isolation of the US and Israel. Major southern countries like Brazil, South Africa, India, and Indonesia are making statements condemning Israel, expressing support for Palestine, and forming anti-US and anti-Israel blocs on international platforms. The expansion of the BRICS group, its institutionalization as a non-Western power platform, poses a serious alternative to the US-led global order. The sympathy and respect that Iran and the Axis of Resistance have gained in these countries have completely collapsed the Western narrative of the “oppressor.”
Serious cracks have also appeared in the relations of the US with its traditional allies. Countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, and Jordan, despite US pressure, have taken steps to normalize relations with Iran and the Axis of Resistance and have begun to openly criticize US policies in the region. Gulf countries that were in the normalization process with Israel froze this process after the October 7 operation, stood by the Palestinian cause, and made statements condemning Israel. This situation is the clearest indicator of how much US influence in the region has weakened and that even its allies can resist Washington’s pressure.
Economic and Strategic Effects: Blows from All Around the World
In the economic field as well, the US and Israel are receiving heavy blows from all around the world. The ineffectiveness of sanctions, the acceleration of de-dollarization, the loss of control over energy markets signal the collapse of US economic hegemony. Years of sanctions on Iran have neither stopped the country’s nuclear program, nor led to regime change, nor limited the regional activities of the Axis of Resistance. On the contrary, sanctions have led to the development of alternative economic networks in Iran, increased import-substitution industrialization efforts, and the formation of an economic structure specialized in evading sanctions.
The de-dollarization process is one of the biggest economic blows directed at the US. Countries such as China, Russia, Iran, Turkey, India, Brazil, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have started using local currencies in their bilateral trade and have begun to question the dollar’s reserve currency status. Discussions within BRICS about creating a common payment system and a common reserve currency have the potential to break the US monopoly on the global financial system. Efforts to create alternatives to the SWIFT system (Russia’s SPFS, China’s CIPS, Europe’s INSTEX) are concrete steps towards neutralizing US financial weapons. The US’s excessive use of sanctions as a weapon is preparing the end of the dollar’s hegemony in the long run.
It is seen that the US and Israel have completely lost control in energy markets. Despite the increase in US LNG exports to Europe following the Russia-Ukraine war, Europe’s energy crisis has not been resolved; on the contrary, Europe’s energy dependency has merely shifted from one form to another. The OPEC+ cartel, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, cutting production despite US pressure has shown how limited US influence is on energy markets. The presence of Iran and the Axis of Resistance in strategic waterways such as the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and the Suez Canal indicates a capacity that could threaten global energy supply. The US’s inability to counter these threats reveals its incompetence regarding energy security.
The Israeli economy is taking blow after blow. The direct cost of the war reaching tens of billions of dollars, the departure of reserve soldiers from the workforce, tourism revenues coming to a halt, labor shortages in agriculture and construction, the halt of foreign investments, the downgrading of credit ratings, and the devaluation of the shekel have deeply shaken the Israeli economy. Although the high-tech sector is the locomotive of the Israeli economy, it has suffered a serious blow due to the mobilization of reservists, disruptions in the supply chain, and increased uncertainty. The near-closure of the Red Sea route, which holds an important place in Israel’s foreign trade, due to Houthi attacks, has added an additional cost to the Israeli economy.
Economic blows directed at the US and Israel from all around the world are increasing the costs for these two countries exponentially. Europe halting arms sales to Israel, international companies withdrawing from Israel, investors losing confidence in Israeli markets, and the spread of boycott campaigns are bringing the Israeli economy to the point of suffocation. The US’s effort to provide simultaneous military and economic support to Ukraine and Israel has placed a heavy burden on the US budget; the sustainability of this support is being seriously questioned. The US debt crisis, budget deficit, and inflation pressures are signaling the collapse of its economic hegemony.
The Crumbling of NATO and the Western Alliance: Europe and the US Are About to Divorce
The current situation within NATO shows that the alliance is fundamentally shaken. The Western alliance, which united against the Soviet threat during the Cold War, no longer even has a common threat definition. While the US defines China as its primary strategic rival, European countries prioritize the Russian threat and are directly affected by instability in the Middle East. These differing threat perceptions cause serious disagreements over strategic priorities within the alliance. The US’s focus on Asia has fueled discussions that Europe should ensure its own security.
Although the commitment of European countries to increase defense spending (the 2% of GDP target) has been met by many countries, it is seen that this spending falls far short of US expectations. Moreover, European countries tend to use increased defense spending to develop their own defense industries rather than buying weapons from the US. This situation has the potential to break the US monopoly on the European arms market and constitutes a new source of tension in transatlantic relations. Projects developed under the leadership of France and Germany, such as the European fighter jet, tank, and aircraft carrier, continue despite US discomfort.
Although the Ukraine war temporarily allowed NATO to re-consolidate, it is understood that this consolidation is not permanent. The prolonged war has depleted the stocks of European countries, strained their economies, and eroded public support. The US signaling a reduction in its support for Ukraine has put European countries in a difficult position; some European countries have started to argue that the war should be resolved through diplomatic means. This situation shows that there is a serious disagreement between the US and Europe over Ukraine policy. Countries like Hungary, Slovakia, and Austria questioning support for Ukraine reveals that the divisions within the alliance are deepening.
The events during the Israel-Gaza war have exposed the chasm between the US and Europe. While the US provides unconditional support to Israel, many European countries have called for a ceasefire, taken steps towards recognizing the Palestinian state, and decided to suspend or restrict arms sales to Israel. Countries such as Spain, Ireland, Norway, and Slovenia have officially announced their recognition of the Palestinian state; Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands, and the UK have suspended or restricted arms sales to Israel. The US’s efforts to veto or block these steps have drawn the reaction of European countries and caused a deep confidence crisis in transatlantic relations. It is now clear that the US cannot direct Europe according to its own interests and that Europe is taking determined steps to chart its own course.
All these developments show that Europe and the US are entering a divorce process. Of course, this divorce will be a gradual process of separation taking years, rather than an abrupt break overnight. But the direction and speed are working against the US. Europe’s effort to gain strategic autonomy is one of the most important factors preparing the end of US global hegemony. Europe diversifying its relations with countries like China, Russia, and Iran, not participating in sanctions against these countries despite US pressure, or efforts to circumvent sanctions, are giving signals of the dissolution of the transatlantic alliance. NATO becoming completely dysfunctional in the near future or transforming into a European-centered defense organization, and the end of the US military presence in Europe, are no longer seen as distant possibilities.
General Assessment: Imperialism and Zionism Have Lost, There is No Way to Hide It
In light of all these developments, the truth reached is this: Imperialism and Zionism have lost politically, militarily, diplomatically, economically, and strategically. The US is no longer the global patron; it can no longer direct anyone as it wishes, cannot intervene in any country as it wishes, cannot impose any sanction as it wishes. The debacle in Afghanistan, ineffectiveness against Russia in Ukraine, the heavy defeats suffered against Iran and the Axis of Resistance in the Middle East have displayed the weakness of the US in all its nakedness. It is an undeniable reality that the US is no longer the determining actor, that the world is evolving into a multipolar structure, and that Iran and the Axis of Resistance are important actors in this new structure.
Israel is experiencing the heaviest defeat in its history. The October 7 operation showed the bankruptcy of Israel’s legendary intelligence, army, and defense systems. Israel’s helplessness in the face of Iran’s direct attack, its inability to even announce who struck it, its fear of retaliation, have revealed how fragile Israel is. Israel has now become a country hiding underground, fleeing to shelters, and breathing in fear both day and night. In the international arena, Israel has been accused of committing genocide, faced demands for its leaders to be tried at the International Criminal Court, been diplomatically isolated by many countries, and even abandoned by its allies. Israel’s prestige has been shattered, its nose has been rubbed in the dirt, and it has been humiliated before the world public.
Friends of the US and Israel are decreasing, and fronts are forming against these two countries all around the world. The rise of Global South countries, the increase in anti-Western sentiment, the revisionist stance of China and Russia, the awakening of the Islamic world – all of these are working against the US and Israel. The US veto, pressure, threats, and sanctions no longer work as they used to. Countries can comfortably take steps that the US does not want, showing that they have the capacity to resist US pressure. The US’s dogmatic discourse of “you are either with us or with them” has lost its function; countries can now say “neither the US nor China, our own way.”
The Gulf region has been a repetition of the Vietnam debacle for the US. After hundreds of thousands of soldiers, trillions of dollars, and decades of engagement, the US could not achieve what it wanted in the Gulf; on the contrary, it has largely lost its influence. Gulf countries now act according to their own interests, not America’s; they develop relations with countries like China, Russia, Iran, and Turkey; they view US security guarantees with suspicion. For Israel, a much heavier version of the 2000 Lebanon debacle is being experienced today. The Israeli army, which withdrew from South Lebanon in shame back then, is now experiencing the same helplessness in Gaza, the West Bank, the Lebanese border, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, being hit from all sides and unable to respond.
There is no longer any possibility of hiding this defeat. Even if the US and Israeli media, state officials, and military commanders do not accept this defeat, the facts are obvious. The world public is personally witnessing that the US and Israel have been humiliated, their prestige shattered, that they have weakened, that they are afraid, that they are desperate. Denying this reality would only be self-deception. A new world order is being established; the foundation of this order is not imperialism and Zionism, but justice, equality, sovereignty, independence, and resistance. In this new order, Iran and the Axis of Resistance will continue to be the hope of all the oppressed who stand by their just cause.
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Sefa Yürükel
Danish ethnographer and social anthropologist (MA)
Aarhus University, 1997
Independent Researcher
Fields of Research: International Politics, Public International Law, Geopolitics, Sociology, Psychology, Cultural Studies, Systems and Structures
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