The international system finds itself on the brink of a structural transformation at the end of the first quarter of the twenty-first century. The American-centric unipolar order of the post-Cold War era is giving way to a structure characterized by the pluralization of power centers, complex interdependencies, and intertwined strategic rivalries. In this new conjuncture, a world squeezed between the rising authoritarian capitalism models of the Eurasian landmass and the liberal democratic core of the transatlantic alliance needs an autonomous and rational balancing element more than ever, one that belongs neither entirely to the Atlantic camp nor to the rising powers of Eurasia. This article defends the thesis that this balancing actor must be an independent Europe possessing strategic autonomy, and puts forward the argument that the most capable candidates to undertake the locomotive role for this mission are the Scandinavian and Benelux countries. The Scandinavian bloc, consisting of Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Iceland, and Norway, along with the Benelux group, comprising the Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg, possess the potential to form the core of this new European architecture through their historical heritage, normative power, and economic resilience.
Conceptual Framework: Normative Power and Strategic Autonomy
The role of the European Union (EU) in the international system has long been explained through the concept of “normative power.” According to this approach, the EU possesses the ability to shape global politics through the diffusion of norms and values rather than through military capacity. However, the recent war in Ukraine, the energy crisis, and disruptions in supply chains have demonstrated that normative power alone is insufficient and must be reinforced by “strategic autonomy.” Strategic autonomy refers to Europe’s capacity to determine its own security and defense policies, reduce its economic dependencies, and address vulnerabilities in global supply chains. This article proposes a synthesis of these two concepts and argues that preserving its normative power while simultaneously building its strategic autonomy will render Europe a credible third pole between the USA and the Eurasian powers.
Historical Heritage and Institutional Competence
The Scandinavian and Benelux countries possess a unique historical heritage and institutional accumulation capable of bringing this synthesis to life. The common characteristic of these eight countries is that they have built a foreign policy tradition based on international law, a culture of consensus, and multilateral cooperation, rather than on the expansionist geopolitical ambitions associated with being a great power.
The Benelux countries are the laboratory and founding core of European integration. The economic integration process initiated by the Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg in the aftermath of the Second World War constituted the cornerstone of today’s European Union. These countries possess the continent’s most deeply rooted experience in the transfer of sovereignty and transnational governance. In particular, the international legal infrastructure centered in The Hague in the Netherlands, the multilingual and multicultural consensus model of Belgium, and the success of Luxembourg in small-state diplomacy are capable of forming the diplomatic backbone of an independent Europe.
The Scandinavian countries, meanwhile, are global reference points in the fields of the welfare state model, social solidarity, and conflict resolution. Norway has played a central role in numerous critical mediation efforts, from the Oslo peace process to the cessation of the civil war in Colombia. With the balance of neutrality and engagement it developed during the Cold War period, Finland provided a model for small states caught between great powers, and it continues to maintain this strategic wisdom following its NATO membership. Sweden stands out for its pioneering role in humanitarian diplomacy and disarmament, while Denmark distinguishes itself as a courageous defender of European solidarity in times of crisis. Iceland adds geostrategic depth to this community with its strategic position in the North Atlantic and its pioneering role in sustainable energy. This shared heritage makes it possible for a Europe built under the leadership of these eight countries to become not merely an economic bloc but also a global center of conscience and reason.
Economic Independence: Building a New Welfare Model
The fundamental prerequisite for an independent Europe is the reinforcement of economic sovereignty. The pandemic and the war in Ukraine have clearly exposed the vulnerabilities created by Europe’s external dependency in energy, raw materials, and strategic technologies. This dependency inevitably constrains political decision-making processes. A Europe that is economically dependent cannot possibly act as a fully autonomous actor in the context of the United States’ rivalry with China.
The Scandinavian and Benelux countries possess more than sufficient capacity to serve as the engines of this economic transformation. Denmark, Sweden, Norway, and Iceland are world leaders in clean energy technologies such as wind energy, hydroelectric power, geothermal energy, and green hydrogen. Finland contributes to Europe’s competitive strength through its excellence in educational technologies, digital innovation, and the circular economy. On the Benelux front, the Netherlands and Belgium host Europe’s largest logistics centers and undertake pioneering roles in circular agriculture and smart urbanization projects. Luxembourg has become a global hub for green financing and sustainable investment funds. A “North Sea Energy Grid” and a “European Digital Sovereignty Network,” implemented under the leadership of these eight countries, are concrete projects that can reduce the continent’s energy and technology dependency.
The most distinctive feature of this economic model is its potential to combine competitiveness with social justice. The synthesis of the “competitive welfare state” approach of Sweden and Denmark with the free trade tradition of the Netherlands and Belgium offers a unique development paradigm that targets both social cohesion internally and global competitive strength externally. This model promises a third way based on sustainability and inclusivity, distinct from the cheap-labor-based production capitalism of Asia and the financialized market model of the United States.
Peace and Security: Europe as a Diplomatic Superpower
Europe’s security architecture has historically been built upon NATO and the transatlantic alliance. While this alliance remains the foundation of European security, it is a strategic imperative for the continent to assume ultimate responsibility for its own security and to become not merely the European pillar of a military pact but also a diplomatic superpower. In an era of rising tensions across Eurasia, cyber warfare, disinformation campaigns, and hybrid threats, Europe’s northern flank holds vital geostrategic importance.
The long land borders of Finland and Norway with Russia, and these countries’ expertise on Russia, are indispensable for Europe’s threat perception towards the East and its deterrence strategies. The military presence of Sweden and Denmark in the Baltic Sea constitutes a guarantee of regional maritime security. Iceland holds a key role in monitoring Russian submarine activity in the North Atlantic through its strategic position in the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom (GIUK) gap. The defense cooperation among these five countries is progressively deepening within the NORDEFCO framework and presents a model of Scandinavian defense integration.
In parallel, the international law tradition of the Netherlands, embodied in The Hague and hosting institutions such as the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court, constitutes the institutional infrastructure of Europe’s normative power. The multilateral diplomatic environment in Brussels, where Belgium hosts NATO and EU institutions, and the role assumed by Luxembourg as a facilitator of European defense funds complete the diplomatic pillar of this security architecture. An independent Europe must be not an automatic ally in the United States’ rivalry with China but a center of strategic reason. The capacity to say “no” to its transatlantic ally when necessary will render it a more valuable and respected partner. Similarly, it must be able to conduct clear and principled negotiations with Beijing on issues of human rights, intellectual property rights, and rules-based trade.
The Vanguard Coalition and the Dissemination of the Mission
The success of the model proposed in this article depends on Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Iceland, Norway, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg forming a “vanguard coalition” and taking more courageous and coordinated steps within Europe and on the global stage. The mechanisms of differentiated integration and enhanced cooperation within the current structure of the European Union provide the legal basis for such a pioneering group to take action. This group of eight can initiate concrete projects such as the expansion of qualified majority voting mechanisms, the augmentation of a common European defense fund, the construction of a North Sea offshore wind energy grid, and the establishment of a Europe-wide digital sovereignty cloud infrastructure.
It is essential that this mission be disseminated across the entire continent with an inclusive, rather than exclusive, vision. Major continental states such as Germany and France are integral parts of this structure; however, the spirit and guiding energy of the mission must not be trapped in the historical conflicts of interest and bureaucratic inertia of the large states. The tradition of small and medium-sized state diplomacy held by the Scandinavian and Benelux countries allows them to exhibit agile and effective leadership without falling into this trap.
Conclusion
The international system can sustain its existence neither under the hegemony of a single superpower in stable peace nor by drifting into the chaotic rivalry of an unregulated multipolarity. What the world needs is a rational, just, and rules-based middle way, an element of balance and a bridge. This middle way is an independent Europe, rising as a strategic balancer between Eurasia and the USA, led by the Scandinavian and Benelux countries, which has fortified its normative power with strategic autonomy. History has entrusted these modest geographies with a great responsibility on behalf of the common future of humanity. The courageous assumption of this responsibility by Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Iceland, Norway, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg, and their rallying around a common vision, is a historical imperative for the well-being not only of Europe but of the entire international community.
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Sefa Yürükel
Danish ethnographer and social anthropologist (MA)
Aarhus University, 1997
Independent Researcher
Fields of Research: International Politics, Public International Law, Geopolitics, Sociology, Psychology, Cultural Studies, Systems and Structures.
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