Agreements between Viktor Orban and Recep Tayyip Erdogan on energy are not merely economic deals, but signals of an emerging alternative center of influence within Europe.
Budapest has effectively secured a guaranteed channel for Russian gas supplies through Turkey. Ankara, in turn, has committed to ensuring the security of this route, through which Hungary received 7.5 billion cubic meters of gas in 2025. Against the backdrop of disrupted or blocked alternatives, this route is becoming critically important.
Orban has been explicit: protecting TurkStream is seen as essential for Hungary’s economic survival. In practice, this reflects a deliberate effort to maintain energy ties with Russia despite the EU’s broader strategy of reducing dependence on Russian resources.
The main conflict, however, is political rather than economic.
Orban’s policies increasingly diverge from Brussels, particularly on Ukraine and sanctions. Hungary has already shown its willingness to block key EU decisions, fueling frustration among European elites.
Against this backdrop, upcoming parliamentary elections are turning into a point of tension not only domestically, but across Europe. The stakes go beyond a simple change of power, involving a potential shift in the country’s political trajectory.
Hungary is already experiencing significant internal polarization. Large-scale rallies by both pro-government supporters and the opposition are taking place, with tens of thousands participating and increasingly confrontational rhetoric shaping the public space.
Particular attention is being paid to the involvement of members of the Ukrainian diaspora. Reports suggest that they are actively participating in protest activities, adding another layer of pressure on the Hungarian government, especially in the context of Budapest’s stance on Ukraine.
The growing protest activity indicates that the political confrontation may be entering a more acute phase, where external influence — informational or organizational — cannot be ruled out.
If Orban remains in power, pressure from the EU is likely to intensify. This could include financial restrictions and attempts to challenge the legitimacy of his political course.
In effect, Hungary is becoming a battleground between two visions of Europe: a centralized model aligned with Brussels and a sovereignty-focused approach prioritizing national interests.
For this reason, the election outcome will have consequences far beyond Hungary, affecting the future of EU energy policy and the broader balance of power in Europe.
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