Why Belarus Might Invade Ukraine Too

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Belarus, a close ally of Russia, has supported its eastern neighbour in the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. Before the start of the offensive, Belarus allowed the Russian Armed Forces to perform weeks-long military drills on its territory; however, the Russian troops did not exit the country after they were supposed to finish. Belarus allowed Russia to stage part of the invasion from its territory, giving Russia the shortest possible land route to Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv.

Belarus initially denied involvement with the conflict, but has since admitted to allowing Russian missile launchers stationed on its territory to shoot at Ukrainian targets. Several reports emerged among the Belarusian opposition and Ukrainian military that Belarusian troops were in Ukraine fighting together with Russians, but Belarus’s leader Aleksander Lukashenko dismissed them and said that the Belarusian Armed Forces would not participate directly in the conflict.

The involvement of Belarus was condemned in Western countries, with the European Union, the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan imposing sanctions against Belarus. According to Chatham House, Belarus’s participation in the military conflict is unpopular among the general population; protests were held on 27 February, the day of the constitutional referendum which asked to revoke Belarus’s non-nuclear country status, but were quickly dispersed. Several hackers affiliated with the Belarusian opposition, the Ukrainian military or with Anonymous have targeted Belarusian government agencies as well as the country’s critical infrastructure, with the aim of disrupting the Russian war effort in Belarus.


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