GULNARA INANCH,
Director of Information and Analytical Center Etnoglobus (ethnoglobus.az), editor of Russian section of Turkishnews American-Turkish Resource www.turkishnews.com,
Syria’s shooting down Turkish jet over Mediterranean Sea and Syria’s invasion of Turkey’s air space in its response may enable us to suppose that it may lead serious pressure in the region. Analyses of the situation show that great powers and regional powers observe the situation not over Syria, but also there is struggle for the Mediterranean Sea.
Late reaction of theUSto the incident, restrained behavior of officialAnkaraand parties’ waiting for behavior of other party under the present circumstances is the sign that either there is confidential agreement within NATO or it is the attempts of provocation ofTurkey.
AlthoughAnkaradenies that Turkish F4 phantom jet was shot down over Syrian territorial waters, it admits that they were shooting photos consequently confirming its intentional occurrence near the bodies ofSyriawhich received war threads.
According to Israeli open source military intelligence website DEBKAfile, Turkey’s military jets commit daily espionage flights over the Syrian’s water. Syria’s www.dampress.net resources says that on the incident day two jets were flying over the Syrian territorial waters one of which left the territory following shooting down another’s. There is also contradictory thoughts weather the jets were belonging toIsrael orTurkey.
The point is that in spite of political tension betweenTurkeyandIsrael, there is also news that intelligence bodies of these countries share news with each other and even there are bases of Mossad in the territories of Turkey to control Iran and Syria. Reports of the Southern Cyprus media that Israel and Turkey plan to carry out military drill in the territorial waters of the Southern Cyprus are another sign that Tel-Aviv and Ankara are together in behind-the-scenes agreements.
In these days Deputy Prime Minister of Israel Shaul Mofaz admitting that Turkey is the regional power highlighted the importance of having strategic relations betweenTurkeyandIsraelwhich is a sign that relations between Tel-Aviv and Ankara should be normalized over the Syrian issue.
Participation of Russia, China, Iran and Syria in the military drills with 90,000 troops, 400 jets and 900 tanks (initially there were reported that Russian navy entered Syrian territorial waters and there are military bases in the Mediterranean of NATO and basin countries) and existence of big military power in the region which worry the US, Israel and Turkey that is also natural.
The reason of current tension withSyria, generally, one of reasons of “Arab Spring” is reconsideration of impact circle over the Mediterranean Sea.
In this case, it is more important who will keepSyriaunder its impact following possible governmental changes inDamascus. The reason whyRussiais against any military operation to overthrow Bashar Assad government is not the intention of Moscowto preserve the present regime, but the real reason is that the person to replace Assad will not support Moscow’s interest.
According to Russian officials, they had agreed for Libyan operation only as the West promised to impose no-fly-zone over Libya ply more serious policy in relation toSyria.
Meanwhile, Russian president Vladimir Putin in his visit to Tel-Aviv discussingIranand Syrian conflict will try to find out the position of Israel, which is influential state in the region, however having safety thread following Arab Spring. Besides Russian president will try to clarify which position Israel will keep in these processes and project future steps.
Another important issue is that Syrian opposition was indifferent to shoot down of Turkish jet and failed to take advantage of the situation. Silence of Syrian opposition formed in the territoryof Turkey and being provided with financial and military support by the West is natural, otherwise manipulators behind the curtain would have to appear.
However,Turkey is not expected to start military operation against Syria or NATO to discuss the article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization intending defense in case of military aggression against any member state. Once when Turkey deployed military force to the Cyprus, NATO had to exclude temporarily these two member states –Turkey and Greece as there was military tension between them.
Turkey doesn’t need such provocation to deploy military force toSyriaand in case of necessity official Ankara has repeatedly carried out military operation within the territories of neighbor countries during pursuit of PKK terrorists.
It is interesting that in Geneva during the meeting dedicated to Syria there was no clear note with regard to Bashar Assad’s leaving the power and clause on arm sale to the conflicting parties inSyria.
As neither Russia, nor the US intend to begin open war, the situation will make the West delay the military operations in Syria. Consequently, Russia will support Bashar Assad, while the US the opposition as it was during 80th inAfghanistan which will lead the country to long civil war. If Assad has to leave the power, then Kremlin and White House will do its best to bring to power the one who is close to them.
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