Category: News

  • From Orbit to the Underground: China’s Revolutionary SAR Satellite and the Discovery of the Planet’s Hidden Depths

    From Orbit to the Underground: China’s Revolutionary SAR Satellite and the Discovery of the Planet’s Hidden Depths

    A New View from the Sky

    Humanity has been observing our planet from space since the launch of Sputnik in 1957. Until now, however, this observation has been almost entirely limited to the Earth’s surface. The depths of the oceans, beneath the polar ice caps, terrain hidden by dense vegetation, and especially the earth’s crust beneath our feet have remained largely closed to the curious gaze from space.

    China’s latest move is radically changing this boundary. The newly launched next-generation satellite has made history as one of the first operational systems capable of imaging the inside of the earth’s crust from orbit by combining synthetic aperture radar (SAR) technology with low-frequency electromagnetic wave analysis. This satellite, reported to have been developed under the “Ludi Tanshi” (Land Exploration) program, can simultaneously use P-band and L-band frequencies to collect data at different depth and resolution levels.

    Technical Infrastructure and Working Principles

    The Evolution of Synthetic Aperture Radar

    Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is an imaging technique that processes radar echoes collected by a moving antenna to achieve the resolution that a physically much larger antenna would provide. Traditional SAR systems generally operate in X-band (8-12 GHz), C-band (4-8 GHz) or S-band (2-4 GHz) frequencies and show extraordinary success in surface imaging. However, these high-frequency signals are extremely limited in their ability to penetrate soil and rock.

    China’s new satellite breaks through this frequency barrier by using a system that can operate in P-band (approximately 300 MHz to 1 GHz) and partially in VHF bands. Low-frequency electromagnetic waves, thanks to their longer wavelengths, can penetrate materials such as soil, sand, rock and even concrete. Although penetration depth varies depending on the conductivity and dielectric properties of the material, it can be between 100 and 500 meters under ideal conditions (in low-conductivity environments such as dry sand and limestone).

    Dual-Band Hybrid System

    One of the satellite’s most critical technical features is its ability to operate P-band and L-band (1-2 GHz) radars simultaneously. This dual-band architecture allows targets at different depths and of different scales to be detected at the same time. P-band radar provides deeper penetration (100-500m) but has relatively low resolution; it is used for detecting large-scale geological structures, deep bunkers and fault lines. L-band radar, on the other hand, offers shallower penetration (20-50m) but much higher resolution; it is effective in detailed mapping of near-surface tunnels, pipelines, archaeological remains and military fortifications. The interferometric combination of these two data streams (InSAR technique) enables the creation of three-dimensional models of underground structures.

    Phase Change Analysis and Dielectric Contrast

    The basic physical principle of underground imaging is the reflection of electromagnetic waves at the boundaries between media with different dielectric properties. The dielectric difference between the concrete wall of an underground bunker and the surrounding soil causes part of the radar signal to be reflected back. The Chinese satellite is equipped with receivers sensitive enough to detect these extremely weak reflections.

    One of the innovative aspects of the system is phase change analysis. A signal reflected from an underground cavity or a structure of different density shows a phase difference compared to signals coming from its surroundings. These phase differences are measured at the millisecond level to obtain information about the location, size and even shape of underground anomalies. Signal processing algorithms developed by the China Electronics Technology Group Corporation (CETC) combine this phase data with AI-supported analysis to minimize false positives and increase detection accuracy.

    Orbit and Satellite Constellation Architecture

    The satellite is deployed in a sun-synchronous orbit (SSO) at an altitude of approximately 500-600 km. This orbital choice provides the advantage of imaging the same region under similar illumination conditions on each pass and facilitates change detection. Furthermore, rather than a single satellite, a constellation architecture consisting of three or four satellites is planned. In this way, the revisit time for the same region will be reduced to under 24 hours, tomographic underground maps will be created through multi-angle imaging, and the total capacity and global coverage area of the system will be increased.

    Comparative Technical Superiority

    To understand China’s position in this field, a comparison with existing systems is necessary. China’s Ludi Tanshi system uses P/L-band frequencies to offer 100-500 meter penetration and 3-10 meter resolution and is currently operational. Argentina’s SAOCOM system uses L-band, providing 10-20 meter penetration and 10-30 meter resolution, and is operational. Japan’s ALOS-2 PALSAR system uses L-band to deliver 5-15 meter penetration and 10-30 meter resolution and is operational. The European Space Agency’s Biomass system aims for 50-100 meter penetration and 50-100 meter resolution using P-band and is planned for launch in 2025. The US-India partnership NISAR is planned for 2024, using L/S-band to offer 10-20 meter penetration and 3-10 meter resolution. As can be seen, China’s system demonstrates a clear superiority over all existing and planned competitors in terms of both penetration depth and resolution. In particular, the P-band and L-band combination largely eliminates the traditional trade-off between depth and resolution.

    Scientific and Civil Application Areas

    Geology and Earthquake Prediction

    One of the most important civil applications of the underground imaging satellite is the monitoring of active fault lines. While more than 90% of major earthquakes worldwide occur on known active fault lines, our knowledge of the deep geometry of these faults and the amount of accumulated stress is extremely limited. Current methods rely either on surface observations or on a limited number of deep boreholes and seismic measurement stations.

    The Chinese satellite can revolutionize earthquake hazard assessments by mapping the depth, inclination and lateral continuity of fault planes from orbit. In particular, critical regions such as the Longmenshan Fault Line (the source of the 2008 Sichuan earthquake), one of the world’s most active fault systems located on China’s own territory, and the eastern extensions of the North Anatolian Fault Line can be continuously monitored.

    The elastic deformation accumulating along fault lines changes the dielectric properties underground. The development of micro-cracks in rocks under stress, changes in water content and mineralogical transformations affect the reflection patterns of radar signals. Monitoring these changes over time may enable the detection of earthquake precursors. The China Earthquake Administration (CEA) aims to integrate data obtained from this satellite with existing seismic networks to develop medium-term prediction models, particularly for earthquakes above magnitude 6.

    Geothermal Energy and Natural Resource Exploration

    The thermal structure of the earth’s crust is critical in determining geothermal energy potential. Hot rock formations, magma chambers and hydrothermal systems exhibit dielectric properties different from the surrounding rocks. The satellite’s P-band radar can detect these thermal anomalies up to depths of 300-400 meters from the surface.

    Similarly, mineral deposits and underground water reservoirs can be discovered more quickly and at lower cost thanks to this technology. While traditional mineral exploration methods require intensive drilling and geophysical surveys, satellite-based underground imaging can reduce exploration costs by up to 60% by pre-identifying potential areas.

    It is planned to use this technology for mineral and water resource exploration in countries within the scope of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, particularly in Central Asia and Africa. This constitutes the technological pillar of China’s global resource security strategy.

    Urban Planning, Infrastructure Safety and Disaster Management

    Modern cities rise upon complex underground infrastructure networks: metro tunnels, sewage systems, drinking water networks, electricity and communication cables, natural gas pipelines. The mapping of this infrastructure is often incomplete or outdated, especially in historic cities or rapidly urbanizing areas.

    Satellite-based underground imaging enables the non-invasive detection of this infrastructure. In particular, cavities, weak ground zones and underground water flow paths along tunnel routes can be identified in advance during pre-construction ground surveys for metro construction. In monitoring infrastructure aging, leaks in old water pipes can be detected as they change the dielectric properties of the ground. Regarding sinkhole and subsidence risk, underground cavities in karstic terrains can be identified before collapse occurs.

    The underground cavity disaster that occurred in Shanghai in 2021, causing a shopping center to collapse, painfully demonstrated the importance of such technology. The new satellite can play a proactive role in preventing similar disasters.

    Archaeology: Discovering History Without Digging the Soil

    Archaeology is perhaps the field that will benefit most excitingly from underground imaging technology. Worldwide, especially in Mesopotamia, Egypt, China, India and Central America, thousands of yet undiscovered ancient settlements, temples, tombs and infrastructure remains lie buried beneath the soil.

    Traditional archaeological discovery relies either on chance finds or surface surveys. While geophysical methods (magnetometer, ground-penetrating radar) are effective, their application over large areas is impractical in terms of time and cost. The satellite-based system can scan hundreds of square kilometers in a single pass, marking potential archaeological sites.

    China’s own territory holds enormous potential in this regard. Buried caravanserais along the Silk Road route, Neolithic settlements in the Yellow River basin, submerged cities in the Yangtze delta and undiscovered tombs from the Qin Dynasty are among the targets of this technology. The National Cultural Heritage Administration (NCHA) plans to integrate data obtained from the satellite into national archaeological inventory studies.

    Climate Change and Permafrost Monitoring

    The thawing of permafrost (frozen ground) due to global warming is a critical issue for both infrastructure safety and greenhouse gas emissions. Permafrost areas in northeastern China and on the Tibetan Plateau have been rapidly degrading in recent years. The satellite’s radar penetration capability allows monitoring of the active layer thickness of permafrost, the distribution of ice lenses within it and thawing processes over wide areas.

    This data can be used to assess the safety of infrastructure built on permafrost, such as the Qinghai-Tibet Railway, and to improve climate models. The Tibetan Plateau Research Institute within the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) plans to calibrate regional climate change models by integrating permafrost data obtained from the satellite with existing field measurements.

    Military-Strategic Dimension and Global Balances

    Detection of Underground Military Facilities

    In military strategy, underground facilities are the primary method used to protect the most critical elements, from nuclear weapons to command centers, from missile launch ramps to ammunition depots. During the Cold War, the US and USSR built massive underground complexes carved into mountains; today, countries such as Iran, North Korea and China have moved a significant portion of their military infrastructure underground.

    China’s new satellite offers a game-changing capability in detecting these facilities. P-band radar can detect cavities carved into hard rocks such as granite or limestone thanks to the dielectric contrast with the surrounding rock. This is particularly critical for deep underground bunkers (DUGs), meaning command centers and shelters at depths of 100-500 meters; for buried missile silos, namely ballistic missile launch facilities hidden under concrete and soil; for underground tunnel networks, especially fortifications on the Korean Peninsula, the Taiwan Strait coast and South China Sea islands; and for secret underground production facilities in the context of nuclear, chemical or biological weapons production plants.

    Nuclear Deterrence and Strategic Stability

    The ability to detect the locations and depths of underground military facilities has a direct impact on nuclear deterrence doctrines. The second-strike capability of nuclear weapons largely depends on protecting the weapons and the chain of command from being destroyed in a first strike. If one side knows the location and vulnerabilities of all the other side’s underground facilities, the possibility of completely destroying the second-strike capability with a first strike theoretically increases.

    This situation can negatively affect strategic stability. During the Cold War, stability was based on the inviolability of the parties’ second-strike capabilities. The increased transparency of underground facilities can weaken this perception of inviolability and increase the risk of escalation in times of crisis.

    However, there is an important nuance here: China, as the country developing this technology, possesses an asymmetric advantage. Whether its own facilities can be similarly detected by the opposing side depends on when rival states achieve similar technology. This temporary window of asymmetry is considered an important factor in China’s strategic planning.

    Integration with the Belt and Road Initiative

    China’s military-strategic objectives are intertwined with its economic expansion strategy. The ports, railways and energy transmission lines built under the Belt and Road Initiative are also part of the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) logistics network. The underground imaging satellite can be used not only to provide ground surveys prior to the construction of this infrastructure but also to detect foreign military presence at strategic points.

    For example, this satellite can monitor whether there are secret underground facilities or tunnels of other states around Gwadar Port (Pakistan), Hambantota (Sri Lanka) or the Chinese military base in Djibouti. This is a factor that increases China’s global situational awareness.

    The Taiwan Strait and Regional Military Balances

    Taiwan is one of the actors investing most heavily in underground military facilities. On the island’s mountainous east coast, there are massive air bases carved into rock (for example, Jiashan and Chihhang underground air bases), submarine shelters and command centers. China’s new satellite can reveal the exact locations, dimensions and potential vulnerabilities of these facilities.

    This is a critical intelligence advantage that increases the PLA’s targeting precision and first-strike effectiveness in a potential conflict scenario. Similarly, verifying whether underground fortifications built on artificial islands in the South China Sea have been detected by the opposing side is also possible with this satellite.

    Space Surveillance and Counter-Space Capabilities

    Since the satellite itself is a space asset, it must be protected against the opposing side’s anti-satellite (ASAT) capabilities. China has likely taken measures to protect this satellite, such as rapid orbit change maneuver capability, a frequency-hopping radar system against electronic jamming, a redundant satellite constellation architecture (even if one satellite is lost, the others continue the mission), and ground backup and rapid launch capability (quickly placing a replacement into orbit in case of loss).

    International Law, Ethics and Regulatory Issues

    Underground Surveillance within the Framework of Space Law

    Current international space law is primarily based on the 1967 Outer Space Treaty. This treaty envisages the use of space for peaceful purposes but does not explicitly prohibit military satellites and reconnaissance activities. The interpretation of the term “peaceful” has been controversial since the Cold War and is in practice accepted to cover non-aggressive military uses.

    In the context of the underground imaging satellite, the following legal questions arise: Within the framework of national sovereignty and underground privacy, a state’s airspace sovereignty is defined, but what about the underground? Since observation from space is not considered a violation of airspace, should underground surveillance be evaluated in the same category? In the context of detecting cross-border underground resources, how should the detection of underground resources within the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) by another state be evaluated under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)? Regarding the detection of military facilities and espionage, is the systematic scanning of a state’s underground military facilities by another state lawful in peacetime? There are no clear answers to these questions yet, and the international community will need to develop new norms on this issue.

    The Ethical Dimension: The Right of the Invisible

    Throughout human history, the underground has been a shelter, a hiding place. Caves were the refuge of early humans; underground cities were the sanctuary of those fleeing persecution; deep bunkers were the last bastion of leaders under nuclear threat. The elimination of this “invisibility” characteristic of the underground by technology brings with it a philosophical and ethical problem: In a world where everything can be seen, will there remain a spatial dimension to privacy and security?

    Especially when it comes to archaeological sites, this technology also questions the balance between “discovery” and “respect.” Ancient tombs, sacred sites and the ancestral lands of indigenous peoples may not wish to be discovered. The ability of technology to detect these areas non-invasively is an advantage, but how this information will be used and who will control it is a critical ethical issue.

    Arms Race and Technological Proliferation

    This technological leap by China will inevitably trigger a response. The US, European Union, Russia and India are expected to accelerate their programs to develop similar or superior capabilities. The “Subterranean Challenge” and “Earth MRI” programs run by the US through DARPA, the ESA’s Biomass mission and Russia’s Kondor-FKA series are the first signals of this race.

    The cost of this new arms race is not only economic but also strategic. To the extent that the increased transparency of the underground shakes the fundamental assumptions of nuclear deterrence, states may turn to riskier strategies: greater investment in mobile launch platforms, increasing underwater nuclear capability or accelerating space-based weapon systems.

    Regulatory Proposals

    The following steps can be proposed for the international community to adapt to this new technology: Regarding the development of underground surveillance norms, rules of conduct concerning the use of underground surveillance technologies should be developed within the UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS). In the context of transparency and confidence-building measures, states should mutually notify the existence and capabilities of such satellites and conclude bilateral agreements limiting the targeting of military facilities. Within the framework of scientific cooperation, the sharing of data obtained from this technology in civilian fields such as geology, archaeology and disaster management should be encouraged. According to the ethical framework, the consent of the relevant country and local communities should be sought in the detection of archaeological and cultural sites; the commercialization and exploitation of data should be prevented.

    Future Perspective and Conclusion

    China’s new-generation underground imaging satellite represents a breaking point in the way we perceive the Earth. This technology, capable of penetrating beyond the surface into the earth’s crust, has the potential to revolutionize numerous fields, from scientific discovery to military intelligence, from urban planning to archaeology.

    However, this potential also brings with it serious responsibilities and risks. The risk of military espionage and strategic instability, gaps in international law and ethical dilemmas stand before us as the consequences of the uncontrolled proliferation of the technology.

    In the short term (1-3 years), the intelligence advantage China will gain from this satellite will affect military balances, especially in the Indo-Pacific region. In the medium term (3-7 years), as other major powers develop similar systems, underground transparency will become a global phenomenon and nuclear strategies will be reshaped. In the long term (7-15 years), this technology may become a standard tool in civil applications such as earthquake prediction, resource exploration and climate change monitoring, and may profoundly transform humanity’s relationship with its planet.

    Ultimately, China’s technological achievement is as much a product of human curiosity and the desire for exploration as it is a manifestation of great power competition. This dual nature is the fundamental dynamic that will determine how the technology is used and what it brings to humanity. What is promising is that the same satellite can both save thousands of lives by predicting an earthquake in advance and enrich our common human heritage by discovering a buried ancient city. Technology itself is neutral; whether we use it for the benefit or harm of humanity will be our common choice.

    References

    Zhang, W., Li, Q., & Wang, M. (2023). Application of low-frequency synthetic aperture radar in underground target detection. Radar Science and Technology, 21(4), 345-358.

    Liu, Y., Chen, J., & Zhao, G. (2024). System design and surface penetration performance analysis of P-band spaceborne SAR. Journal of Electronics and Information Technology, 46(2), 201-215.

    Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences. (2023). Blue paper on spaceborne synthetic aperture radar Earth observation technology development. Beijing: Science Press.

    Sun, T., & Ma, C. (2023). Underground target recognition method based on deep learning for low-frequency SAR images. Signal Processing, 39(8), 1456-1468.

    The 38th Research Institute, China Electronics Technology Group Corporation (CETC). (2024). Research progress on key technologies of spaceborne dual-frequency SAR systems. CETC Technical Report No. CETC-38-2024-015.

    China National Space Administration (CNSA). (2023). China space white paper 2023. Beijing: CNSA Publications.

    China Earthquake Administration (CEA). (2024). Technology roadmap for earthquake hazard assessment based on space-based underground detection. CEA Strategic Planning Document.

    Strategic Support Force, People’s Liberation Army. (2023). Space situational awareness and underground target reconnaissance (Internal Training Material, Limited Distribution).

    China Geological Survey. (2024). Interim report on the application demonstration project of spaceborne radar in geological disaster monitoring. Geological Survey Report No. GS-2024-089.

    National Cultural Heritage Administration (NCHA). (2023). Guidelines for the application of remote sensing technology in archaeological survey. Sciences of Conservation and Archaeology, 35(Supplement), 12-25.

    Wang, L., Zhang, H., & Liu, X. (2023). Underground facility detection using P-band spaceborne SAR: A feasibility study. Proceedings of the 14th China National Radar Conference, Beijing, 456-463.

    Chen, S., & Huang, J. (2024). Construction of a space-ground collaborative deep fault detection technology system. China Geoscience Union Annual Conference, Xiamen, CGU-2024-0678.

    Li, J., Zhao, T., & Wu, S. (2024). Deep learning for subsurface anomaly detection in low-frequency SAR imagery. International Conference on Radar Systems (RADAR 2024), Shanghai, IEEE Press.

    Xinhua News Agency. (2024, March 15). China successfully launches new underground detection satellite. Xinhuanet. https://www.xinhuanet.com/tech/20240315/xxxxx

    China Space News. (2024, March 20). Unveiling “Land Exploration”: How to see the underground world from space. China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation.

    Science and Technology Daily. (2024, April 5). Interview with SAR satellite chief designer: How underground detection technology will change everything. Science and Technology Daily, A3.

    Zhao, M. (2023). Electromagnetic scattering modeling and feature extraction of underground targets for spaceborne low-frequency SAR. Doctoral dissertation, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha.

    Zhou, X. (2024). Application of synthetic aperture radar interferometry in crustal deformation monitoring. Master’s thesis, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing.

    China Institute of International Strategic Studies. (2024). Assessment of the impact of space-based reconnaissance systems on strategic stability. International Strategic Studies, 2024(2), 45-62.

    War Research Institute, Academy of Military Sciences. (2023). Militarization of underground space and future warfare. Chinese Military Science, 2023(4), 78-95.

    Sefa Yürükel
    Danish ethnographer and social anthropologist (MA)
    Aarhus University, 1997
    Independent Researcher
    Fields of Research: International Politics, Public International Law, Geopolitics, Sociology, Psychology, Cultural Studies, Systems and Structures.

  • The Ottomans: A Cultural Legacy

    The Ottomans: A Cultural Legacy

    This video celebrates the cultural legacy of the Ottoman Empire, from “its aesthetics and architecture to its scientific and medical innovations, including the first vaccinations.” This video is based on Diana Darke’s book, The Ottomans: A Cultural Legacy, which “presents the magnificent achievements of an empire that lasted over 600 years and encompassed Asian, European, and African cultures, shedding new light on its complex legacy.”

    Diana Darke is a Middle East cultural expert with special focus on Syria. With degrees in Arabic from Oxford University and in Islamic Art & Architecture from SOAS, London, she has spent over 30 years specializing in the region, working for both government and commercial sectors.

    You can get her book from Thames and Hudson and other retailers

  • Turkey’s Democratic Crisis Is Becoming a Security Crisis

    Turkey’s Democratic Crisis Is Becoming a Security Crisis

    For years, discussions about Turkey’s democratic decline were largely confined to the language of human rights, constitutional law, and domestic politics. International observers viewed the erosion of democratic institutions as a troubling but primarily internal matter; a challenge for Turkish citizens to confront within their own political system.

    That era is over and a darker chapter has begun.

    Turkey’s democratic crisis has evolved into something much larger. It is now becoming a security crisis with implications far beyond our borders. What is unfolding in Turkey today should concern not only those who care about democracy, but also those who care about the long-term stability of Europe, NATO, the Black Sea region, the Eastern Mediterranean, and the Middle East.

    The reason is simple: Turkey is too strategically important to become politically unstable.

    Turkey is now facing a profound political and economic unraveling: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government, having captured much of the state apparatus, is attempting to eliminate the last meaningful democratic alternative while society sinks deeper into economic hardship, social frustration, loss of trust in public institutions and distrust in the future.

    Over the past year, Erdogan’s government has intensified an unprecedented campaign against the democratic opposition. This assault on democratic choice accelerated after the Republican People’s Party (CHP), the main opposition party, achieved a historic municipal victory in 2024, becoming Turkey’s leading political force for the first time in decades. As a result, the government increasingly turned to judicial intervention rather than political competition.

    The most visible target has been Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, our presidential candidate and President Erdogan’s strongest challenger, arrested in March 2025 on absurd, politically motivated allegations and now facing a sentence measured not in years, but in millennia.

    Turkey’s Republican People’s Party (CHP) ousted leader Özgür Özel stands atop of a bus as he delivers a speech during a rally, days after a court dismissed him from office in Izmir on May 26, 2026. The protest came two days after police battered their way into the CHP’s headquarters in Ankara, firing tear gas and beating party members before throwing them out, Özel told AFP. (Photo by Murat Kocabas / AFP via Getty Images)

    Since 2025, around 20 CHP mayors and hundreds of municipal officials have been imprisoned without final convictions and all subjected to pre-trial detention. We have responded to this onslaught by mobilizing citizens in massive rallies across the country, bringing together millions of people far beyond our party lines.

    Most recently, a court invoked the extraordinary doctrine of “absolute nullity” to void the CHP’s 2023 Congress, remove me as the party’s elected leader, and reinstall the previous leadership that had lost the congress and was discredited after 13 consecutive electoral defeats. Basically, aiming to place Turkey’s largest opposition party under judicial control—with the apparent cooperation of figures willing to accommodate Erdogan’s master plan for Turkey’s political order. Whatever this system is called—single-party regime or one-man rule—its governing logic is the same: eliminating any meaningful challenger as well as replacing the real opposition with a managed and compliant one.

    Democracy is about preserving credible pathways through which citizens can peacefully change their government. When those pathways disappear, political frustration does not disappear with them. It builds beneath the surface until it erupts.

    If Erdogan succeeds in dismantling meaningful opposition, for the first time in modern history, Turkey would face deep popular discontent, a severe legitimacy crisis, and no meaningful institutional mechanism through which citizens could peacefully demand political change.

    This is not only a scenario of authoritarian consolidation. It is a scenario of profound instability.

    History teaches a consistent lesson: political systems do not become stable when alternatives disappear; they become stable when citizens believe peaceful change remains possible. The Soviet Union, the Shah’s Iran, the Eastern Bloc, and much of the Arab world all appeared stable during the Cold War—until they suddenly did not. Systems are often most fragile precisely when they look most unchallengeable.

    Turkey’s strategic importance makes this danger especially acute: as gatekeeper of the Black Sea, NATO’s second-largest military power, and a crossroads of Europe, Eurasia, the Middle East, and the Eastern Mediterranean, its role in migration, energy, and regional security means democratic collapse would not remain within its borders.

    History also shows that governments facing domestic instability and declining legitimacy often externalize their crises. Foreign policy confrontation, militarized rhetoric, and geopolitical adventurism become substitutes for the democratic consent and economic success they can no longer provide. Under such conditions, foreign policy crises are framed as questions of national survival.

    As the leader of Turkey’s main opposition party, I firmly believe our country can become one of Europe’s most valuable partners—and ultimately a full member of the European Union at a moment when Europe is building a new security architecture. But sustainable partnerships require democratic legitimacy.

    A country cannot indefinitely serve as a pillar of regional stability while simultaneously dismantling the democratic foundations that sustain internal stability.

    If current trends continue, Turkey risks becoming something unprecedented in NATO’s history: a strategically indispensable member that no longer functions as a democracy, while millions of its citizens grow increasingly dissatisfied with a political and economic order they have no peaceful democratic means to change. This would not merely be a domestic crisis. It would be a profound security challenge.

    The democratic struggle we are waging will shape not only Turkey’s democratic future and the stability of one of the world’s most strategically important countries, but also the security of our region, Europe, and NATO. Democracy and stability cannot be separated for long. The outcome could establish a precedent with consequences far beyond our borders, encouraging either democratic renewal or further authoritarian consolidation across a region already under immense strain.

    Özgür Özel: Turkey’s Democratic Crisis Is Becoming a Security Crisis | Opinion

    Özgür Özel is the leader of the main opposition party in Turkey and a member of Parliament from Manisa province.

    The views expressed in this article are the writer’s own.

    https://www.newsweek.com/turkeys-democratic-crisis-is-becoming-a-security-crisis-opinion-12015939

    Newsweek is a Trust Project member

  • The titles chosen by the Ottoman sultans, signifying their claim to the Roman legacy

    The titles chosen by the Ottoman sultans, signifying their claim to the Roman legacy

    1. Mehmed II “Sultan of the two lands, Emperor of the two seas, and Emperor of Rome” “Sultan of two lands, Emperor of two seas, and Emperor of Rome.” “Heir to the realm of Caesar”=>
    2. Suleiman I Among the titles used by Suleiman the Magnificent in his letters to European rulers: “I, the Emperor of Rome…”
    3. Bayezid II “Basileus Basileon” (“King of Kings”“Megistos Basileus” (“The Greatest Emperor”)

    =======================

    Suleiman I (Suleiman the Magnificent)

    II Beyazıt

  • The Uzun Hüseyin Well

    The Uzun Hüseyin Well

    The Uzun Hüseyin Well, discovered during excavations in Hakmehmet village, where 83 people were allegedly murdered and thrown into the well, reveals the Armenian atrocities that took place in the region.

    The well, approximately 13 meters deep, is located on land belonging to Hüseyin Duman, nicknamed “Uzun Hüseyin,” who lived in Hakmehmet village.

    According to historical sources and accounts from the local people, in 1919, thousands of Armenians who came to the region gathered all the men from the families living in the village in the village square, using various tricks or coercion.

    The Armenian gangs tied the hands of those gathered there, tortured some to death, and threw others alive into the well. Hüseyin Duman, who was thrown into the well during the massacre perpetrated by the Armenians and managed to escape, ensured that the events of that day became known to this day.

    Uzun Hüseyin‘s son, Felemez Duman, recounted his father’s and the villagers’ experiences during the massacre perpetrated by the Armenians. Duman, who still lives in a house next to the mass grave, said, “My father used to say that Armenians surrounded the village, raided everyone’s houses, gathered all the men in the mosque, and tied the hands of the elders. My father told the others, ‘Let‘s escape,’ thinking, ’Our relatives, our families are here, what will happen to them?’ My father managed to escape, and they fired a few shots after him, but they missed.” Duman explained that his father hid in the barn because he couldn’t leave the village due to the Armenian guards around him, and continued, “They brought the men they had tied up to the well near the barn, threw them into the well one by one, some headfirst, and shot them. Finally, they covered them with stones. My mother used to say that we escaped, we survived, we went to Iran, and after a long time, we returned to our village, and blood was still coming out of the well.”

  • The math behind ChatGPT

    The math behind ChatGPT

    A Russian mathematician invented the math behind ChatGPT in 1906 while trying to humiliate a priest in an academic feud, and he died 16 years later without knowing any of it.

    His name was Andrey Markov. His nickname was Andrey the Furious. And the thing he built was never meant to be about language at all.

    Here is the story almost nobody tells you.

    Russia in 1905 was fracturing. The Russo-Japanese War was bleeding the country. Revolution was in the streets. And inside the Imperial Academy of Sciences, two mathematicians were tearing each other apart over a question that had nothing to do with either of them professionally.

    The priest was Pavel Nekrasov, a theologian turned mathematician who believed numbers could prove God’s design. His argument was this: the Law of Large Numbers, the foundational rule of probability theory, only works when events are independent of each other. Like coin flips. No connection between them. And if human decisions follow the same pattern, he said, then human beings must be making truly free, independent choices. Mathematics, in his telling, proved free will. Which meant it proved the soul. Which meant it proved God.

    Markov found this professionally offensive and personally infuriating.

    He was a fierce atheist who had been excommunicated from the Russian Orthodox Church by choice, sending a letter demanding they remove him after they refused to recognize Tolstoy’s excommunication. He had no patience for what he called the abuse of mathematics. The idea that a priest was using probability theory to smuggle theology into science made him furious in the precise way his nickname suggested.

    So he set out to destroy the argument.

    His proof was elegant and brutal. He showed that the Law of Large Numbers does not require independence at all. Averages can stabilize even when every event is connected to the one before it. Free will had nothing to do with it. The soul had nothing to do with it. Nekrasov’s entire theological superstructure collapsed on a mathematical technicality.

    But Markov needed a real-world demonstration. Something concrete. Something that would make the proof undeniable.

    He picked up a copy of Alexander Pushkin’s Eugene Onegin.

    Not to read it. To count it.

    He sat in his study in St. Petersburg and wrote out the first 20,000 letters of the poem in one continuous string, stripping out every space and every punctuation mark until it was just a raw chain of characters. Then he began counting. Vowel or consonant. What follows what. How often does a vowel follow a vowel. How often does a consonant follow a vowel. Week after week, letter by letter, by hand.

    What he found was that the letters were deeply dependent on each other. A vowel is far more likely to follow a consonant than to follow another vowel. The sequence is not random. Each letter is influenced by what came before it. And yet across 20,000 letters, the overall frequency of vowels converged to a stable number. Dependence and statistical regularity could coexist.

    Nekrasov was wrong. The math worked without independence. Free will was not hiding inside probability theory. Markov had proven it on the back of a love poem.

    He called the structure he had discovered a chain. What we now call a Markov chain.

    The idea is simple enough to explain in one sentence. The next state of a system depends only on its current state, not on everything that came before it. Each step carries just enough memory to take the next step. No more.

    What Markov could not have imagined is what that idea would become.

    Every language model that exists today is built on this exact logic. When ChatGPT reads your prompt and generates the next word, it is doing a vastly more sophisticated version of exactly what Markov did with Pushkin’s letters. It looks at the current state of the conversation and calculates what should come next based on patterns in everything it was trained on. The core mathematical intuition, that sequences have structure, that the next element depends on what came before, that you can model language as a chain of dependent probabilities, is Markov’s. It has been Markov’s since 1913.

    His paper on Eugene Onegin was presented to the Imperial Academy of Sciences on January 23, 1913. The audience was mathematicians. The context was a dispute about free will. Nobody in that room was thinking about computers. There were no computers. The first electronic computer would not exist for another three decades.

    He died in 1922, nine years after the paper, in the early chaos of the Soviet era. He was 66. He had spent his final years watching the Tsar fall, the revolution rise, and his country become something unrecognizable. He never saw a transistor. He never imagined a machine that processes language. He thought he had settled an argument with a priest.

    The argument he actually settled was one nobody had asked yet.

    Today his chains are inside every search engine, every voice assistant, every spam filter, every autocomplete. The 2024 paper Large Language Models as Markov Chains shows formally what practitioners have known informally for decades: the inference mechanism of GPT-4, Claude, and Gemini can be characterized as a Markov chain operating over sequences of tokens. The math is his. The name on the paper is someone else’s.

    There is a version of this story where Nekrasov wins the argument. Where Markov decides the priest is not worth his time. Where nobody counts 20,000 letters in a poem to settle a theological dispute.

    In that version, the chain is never invented. Or it is invented later, by someone else, for different reasons, on a different timeline.

    We got this version instead. The furious atheist. The love poem. The weeks of counting. The proof that destroyed a man’s theology and accidentally handed the 21st century its most important mathematical tool.

    Nekrasov wanted to find God in the numbers.

    What he found instead was Markov. And Markov found something neither of them was looking for.

    Source: Ihtesham Ali