London , UK (Jul. 28, 2008) — David Hartwell, Jane’s Middle East Editor, commented “Turkish authorities are probably correct in their early assessment that the Partiya Karkaren Kurdistan was responsible for the attack, which was probably carried out in retaliation for a series of raids that took place last week by the Turkish military targeting Partiya Karkaren Kurdistan bases in northern Iraq.”
Will Hartley, Editor, Jane’s Terrorism & Insurgency Centre , further added “There is a slight possibility the attack could be linked to current investigations into the activity of Ergenekon – a ‘deep state’ nationalist group accused of a number of violent acts. It could be significant the attacks happened on the same weekend that the indictment of alleged Ergenekon members, which the authorities have been preparing for over a year now, was finally made public. However, at this time, and in the absence of more evidence, the Workers’ Party of Kurdistan ( Partiya Karkaren Kurdistan: PKK) remains the most likely culprits – although a PKK spokesman has denied the group was responsible, and the operation is not typical of the group’s modus operandi.“
‘Modus operandi’ or MO refers to the signature style of a group/incident. In the absence of concrete evidence or claims of responsibility, matching the known MO of groups with the MO of an incident is often the only thing analysts can use to assess who may have been responsible. In this case the MO was a mass casualty attack aimed at urban civilian targets and employing coordinated twin bombs (emplaced), with the secondary device timed to cause maximum damage among first-responders.
The Workers’ Party of Kurdistan (Partiya Karkaren Kurdistan: PKK) is Turkey’s most active insurgent group.
Source: Jane’s Information Group, 28 July 2008
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