Family meetings: Syria, Iran, Turkey

Family meetings: Syria, Iran, Turkey

Author: Greg Austin

15 July 2011 – Issue : 944

In a joint press conference with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu last week, Iran’s Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi declared those two countries to be part of one family with Syria. Alluding to the repression in Syria, Salehi said that the problems of one member could be solved amongst the family. This followed a statement by President Ahmadinejad that all citizens of the region should “enjoy equal rights, the right to vote, security and dignity”.

The ties in this triangular “family” do not run deep, but they are strengthening. This can be seen in the agreement in March this year among the three countries (plus Iraq) to issue a common tourist visa. There have also been moves to liberalize trade among the three countries, including through new investments in cross-border transportation designed to reach from Turkey to Pakistan and Afghanistan.

There are many ways to characterize the relative power of each of the three countries. It is clear that Turkey and Iran are far more powerful than smaller Syria. Turkey and Iran each have economies about ten times bigger than that of Syria (based on PPP estimates of GDP). On population size, Syria at 22 million comes much closer to its two neighbours, each with just under 80 million.

Yet, even while Turkey and Iran may have been the power holders in this family, Syria’s potential power, or at least influence, in current and emerging political circumstances is considerable. This may sound odd given the debilitating civil unrest and large scale violence against the citizenry in Syria. But there are governments in the region and outside it who are looking at this emerging family of three as a potential game-changer in regional affairs. The other big group of states most interested in this new family of three is the group of Arab monarchies, but Israel is watching closely too.

To understand and anticipate the direction and scale of change, now is the time for an opening up of new channels of political communication among these three countries on the one hand and, on the other hand, among them, Europe and the United States. One dilemma is that Iran and Syria are both viewed by so many in the West as outlaw states that it is hard to garner support for such new dialogues. But new conversations may well prove surprisingly beneficial in terms of new and unexpected outcomes.

The most productive subjects will probably not be the most highly political or the most topical, but rather ones that centre on regional economic integration and long term development of physical infrastructure to facilitate cross-border movement of people. One reason why such new talks, and an innovative framework for sustaining them, are so important can be seen in the number of regional threats and confrontations over which these countries hold some sway. These include terrorism in Iraq, Iranian and Syrian support for Hezbollah against Israel, and the half century military face-off between Syria and Israel. There are also important opportunities that seem to be begging, not least a hope for political liberalization and, less important but still strategically significant, a possible reduction of European dependence on the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz for transport of regional energy supplies.

Yet another reason lies in the changing shape of geopolitics and geo-economics in the region. International relations here are increasingly dominated by local powers while the authority and influence of the United States is ever more visibly in decline. As urgent as the current needs for European engagement might be in North Africa (Libya, Egypt, Tunisia), there are strong foundations in the Mediterranean for European engagement there. These include the Barcelona Process and the Mediterranean Union. By contrast, very stark at that, Europe has few assets for political engagement with Syria, Iran and Turkey on matters that concern these local states most. Who can lead Europe on a new course of dialogue in this region?

via Family meetings: Syria, Iran, Turkey – New Europe.