Month: July 2009

  • Xinjiang Energy Risk Rises

    Xinjiang Energy Risk Rises

    2009-07-13

    China’s energy risk grows with reliance on Xinjiang.

    AFP

    The sun rises over the Tazhong oilfield in China’s Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, Oct. 12, 2006.

    BOSTON–China’s growing energy reliance on Xinjiang has raised risks for China’s government as it tries to control unrest in the far northwestern region, experts say.

    The outbreak of deadly riots in Urumqi on July 5 has been linked to the killing of two Uyghur migrant workers in an ethnic attack at a toy factory in southern Guangdong province on June 26.

    But the violence also follows years of tension over the government’s “Develop the West” program, focusing on Xinjiang’s energy resources and strategic links to Central Asia.

    Projects like the massive West-to-East gas pipeline have brought waves of Han workers to thinly-settled Xinjiang since 2000, when former President Jiang Zemin launched the investment policy for western provinces and autonomous regions.

    Xinjiang’s gas has been tapped to fuel distant Shanghai since the 4,000-kilometer (2,500-mile) pipeline opened in 2004. A second West-to-East project is under way to bring gas from Turkmenistan on a 7,000-kilometer route through Xinjiang to China’s east coast.

    Gas reserves

    Oil has also been flowing across Xinjiang through a 1,000-kilometer pipeline from Kazakhstan since 2005.

    In addition to the energy funnelled through Xinjiang, China has been exploiting the region for its own resources. Xinjiang contains gas reserves of 1.4 trillion cubic meters, more than any other region or province, the official China Daily reported in February.

    Gas production from Xinjiang’s Tarim Basin field accounted for more than a fifth of China’s total output last year.

    In 2008, the region produced 27.4 million tons of oil (550,000 barrels per day), or over 14 percent of China’s output, making it the country’s second-biggest oil center.

    Xinjiang also has 40 percent of China’s coal reserves, the official Xinhua news agency reported. The region has at least 11 rail projects in progress and 3.5 billion yuan ($512 million) in highway work scheduled this year.

    Strategic importance

    These broad energy and investment interests have heightened the Chinese government’s determination to suppress Uyghur autonomy in Xinjiang, said S. Frederick Starr, chairman of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute at the Washington-based Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies.

    “This is one of the true red lines of Chinese policy, as much as Taiwan, and it’s certainly of more strategic importance to them than Tibet,” Starr told Radio Free Asia.

    “This is the case not only because of the resources–oil and gas and other resources–of Xinjiang itself, but also because it’s a transit point for energy from the west.”

    Starr said that Uyghur citizens are aware that the benefits of energy development are distributed very differently in neighboring Kazakhstan since the breakup of the Soviet Union.

    “The money is going to the new Kazakh state and its people. It’s not going off to Moscow anymore,” Starr said.

    By contrast, the mostly-Muslim Uyghurs of Xinjiang see little of the region’s energy wealth. And the unequal distribution of Xinjiang’s energy benefits has deepened Uyghur resentment and raised resistance to exploitation by Beijing, said Starr.

    “This is not going to be dealt with simply with the fist, as the Chinese have so far tried to do,” he said.

    Vulnerability

    Robert Ebel, senior adviser to the energy and national security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, agrees that the government’s “Develop the West” plan could turn into a vulnerability if it increases China’s reliance on Xinjiang energy and transit routes.

    “That’s going to raise the stakes to make sure that the region is kept quiet and keep the people from going out into the streets whenever they think they have a reason to do so,” said Ebel.

    China is also developing a variety of energy import routes from Russia and southeast Asia, reducing the risk of a strategic crisis with energy supplies over time, Ebel said. But the long stretches of pipeline through Xinjiang’s vast mountains and deserts would be impossible to protect if they become targets.

    “You cannot protect a pipeline along its entire length,” Ebel said, though he believes China will try to minimize the risk of disruption by threatening harsh punishments.

    Starr said the best course for Beijing to protect its energy investments in Xinjiang would be to address Uyghur complaints.

    True Autonomy

    “The easiest thing for the Chinese to do would be to acknowledge that they’re not dealing with separatists, they’re not dealing with Islamic extremists,” he said.

    Granting true autonomy to Xinjiang in keeping with its designation as the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, first made by former Chairman Mao Zedong, would likely satisfy the demands of the majority of Uyghurs, Starr argued.

    “It would guarantee the security of energy transit through the region and the extraction industries including oil and gas that are based there,” he said.

    Starr said that Uyghurs’ main complaints are that they do not have enough voice in government, feel outnumbered by incoming Han Chinese and do not get a fair share of the region’s wealth.

    “If China addresses [these complaints], it will increase its energy security, not decrease it,” Starr said.

    Original reporting by Michael Lelyveld. Edited for the Web by Richard Finney.

    https://www.rfa.org/english/commentaries/energy_watch/energy-risk-07132009103219.html

  • Washington is Playing a Deeper Game with China

    Washington is Playing a Deeper Game with China

    by F. William Engdahl

    Global Research, July 11, 2009

    https://www.globalresearch.ca/washington-is-playing-a-deeper-game-with-china/14327

    After the tragic events of July 5 in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in China, it would be useful to look more closely into the actual role of the US Government’s ”independent“ NGO, the National Endowment for Democracy (NED). All indications are that the US Government, once more acting through its “private” Non-Governmental Organization, the NED, is massively intervening into the internal politics of China.

     

    The reasons for Washington’s intervention into Xinjiang affairs seems to have little to do with concerns over alleged human rights abuses by Beijing authorities against Uyghur people. It seems rather to have very much to do with the strategic geopolitical location of Xinjiang on the Eurasian landmass and its strategic importance for China’s future economic and energy cooperation with Russia, Kazakhastan and other Central Asia states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

     

    The major organization internationally calling for protests in front of Chinese embassies around the world is the Washington, D.C.-based World Uyghur Congress (WUC).

     

    The WUC manages to finance a staff, a very fancy website in English, and has a very close relation to the US Congress-funded NED. According to published reports by the NED itself, the World Uyghur Congress receives $215,000.00 annually from the National Endowment for Democracy for “human rights research and advocacy projects.” The president of the WUC is an exile Uyghur who describes herself as a “laundress turned millionaire,” Rebiya Kadeer, who also serves as president of the Washington D.C.-based Uyghur American Association, another Uyghur human rights organization which receives significant funding from the US Government via the National Endowment for Democracy.

     

    The NED was intimately involved in financial support to various organizations behind the Lhasa ”Crimson Revolution“ in March 2008, as well as the Saffron Revolution in Burma/Myanmar and virtually every regime change destabilization in eastern Europe over the past years from Serbia to Georgia to Ukraine to Kyrgystan to Teheran in the aftermath of the recent elections.

     

    Allen Weinstein, who helped draft the legislation establishing NED, was quite candid when he said in a published interview in 1991: “A lot of what we do today was done covertly 25 years ago by the CIA.”

     

    The NED is supposedly a private, non-government, non-profit foundation, but it receives a yearly appropriation for its international work from the US Congress. The NED money is channelled through four “core foundations”. These are the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs, linked to Obama’s Democratic Party; the International Republican Institute tied to the Republican Party; the American Center for International Labor Solidarity linked to the AFL-CIO US labor federation as well as the US State Department; and the Center for International Private Enterprise linked to the US Chamber of Commerce.

     

    The salient question is what has the NED been actively doing that might have encouraged the unrest in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, and what is the Obama Administration policy in terms of supporting or denouncing such NED-financed intervention into sovereign politics of states which Washington deems a target for pressure? The answers must be found soon, but one major step to help clarify Washington policy under the new Obama Administration would be for a full disclosure by the NED, the US State Department and NGO’s linked to the US Government, of their involvement, if at all, in encouraging Uyghur separatism or unrest. Is it mere coincidence that the Uyghur riots take place only days following the historic meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization?

     

    Uyghur exile organizations, China and Geopolitics

     

    On May 18 this year, the US-government’s in-house “private” NGO, the NED, according to the official WUC website, hosted a seminal human rights conference entitled East Turkestan: 60 Years under Communist Chinese Rule, along with a curious NGO with the name, the Unrepresented Nations and Peoples Organisation (UNPO).

     

    The Honorary President and founder of the UNPO is one Erkin Alptekin, an exile Uyghur who founded UNPO while working for the US Information Agency’s official propaganda organization, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty as Director of their Uygur Division and Assistant Director of the Nationalities Services.

     

    Alptekin also founded the World Uyghur Congress at the same time, in 1991, while he was with the US Information Agency. The official mission of the USIA when Alptekin founded the World Uyghur Congress in 1991 was “to understand, inform, and influence foreign publics in promotion of the [USA] national interest…” Alptekin was the first president of WUC, and, according to the official WUC website, is a “close friend of the Dalai Lama.”

     

    Closer examination reveals that UNPO in turn to be an American geopolitical strategist’s dream organization. It was formed, as noted, in 1991 as the Soviet Union was collapsing and most of the land area of Eurasia was in political and economic chaos. Since 2002 its Director General has been Archduke Karl von Habsburg of Austria who lists his (unrecognized by Austria or Hungary) title as “Prince Imperial of Austria and Royal Prince of Hungary.”

     

    Among the UNPO principles is the right to ‘self-determination’ for the 57 diverse population groups who, by some opaque process not made public, have been admitted as official UNPO members with their own distinct flags, with a total population of some 150 million peoples and headquarters in the Hague, Netherlands.

     

    UNPO members range from Kosovo which “joined” when it was fully part of then Yugoslavia in 1991. It includes the “Aboriginals of Australia” who were listed as founding members along with Kosovo. It includes the Buffalo River Dene Nation indians of northern Canada.

     

    The select UNPO members also include Tibet which is listed as a founding member. It also includes other explosive geopolitical areas as the Crimean Tartars, the Greek Minority in Romania, the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria (in Russia), the Democratic Movement of Burma, and the gulf enclave adjacent to Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and which just happens to hold rights to some of the world’s largest offshore oil fields leased to Condi Rice’s old firm, Chevron Oil. Further geopolitical hotspots which have been granted elite recognition by the UNPO membership include the large section of northern Iran which designates itself as Southern Azerbaijan, as well as something that calls itself Iranian Kurdistan.

     

    In April 2008 according to the website of the UNPO, the US Congress’ NED sponsored a “leadership training” seminar for the World Uyghur Congress (WUC) together with the Unrepresented Nations and Peoples Organization. Over 50 Uyghurs from around the world together with prominent academics, government representatives and members of the civil society gathered in Berlin Germany to discuss “Self-Determination under International Law.” What they discussed privately is not known. Rebiya Kadeer gave the keynote address.

     

    The suspicious timing of the Xinjiang riots

     

    The current outbreak of riots and unrest in Urumqi, the capital of Xinjiang in the northwest part of China, exploded on July 5 local time.

     

    According to the website of the World Uyghur Congress, the “trigger” for the riots was an alleged violent attack on June 26 in China’s southern Guangdong Province at a toy factory where the WUC alleges that Han Chinese workers attacked and beat to death two Uyghur workers for allegedly raping or sexually molesting two Han Chinese women workers in the factory. On July 1, the Munich arm of the WUC issued a worldwide call for protest demonstrations against Chinese embassies and consulates for the alleged Guangdong attack, despite the fact they admitted the details of the incident were unsubstantiated and filled with allegations and dubious reports.

     

    According to a press release they issued, it was that June 26 alleged attack that gave the WUC the grounds to issue their worldwide call to action.

     

    On July 5, a Sunday in Xinjiang but still the USA Independence Day, July 4, in Washington, the WUC in Washington claimed that Han Chinese armed soldiers seized any Uyghur they found on the streets and according to official Chinese news reports, widespread riots and burning of cars along the streets of Urumqi broke out resulting over the following three days in over 140 deaths.

     

    China’s official Xinhua News Agency said that protesters from the Uighur Muslim ethnic minority group began attacking ethnic Han pedestrians, burning vehicles and attacking buses with batons and rocks. “They took to the street…carrying knives, wooden batons, bricks and stones,” they cited an eyewitness as saying. The French AFP news agency quoted Alim Seytoff, general secretary of the Uighur American Association in Washington, that according to his information, police had begun shooting “indiscriminately” at protesting crowds.

     

    Two different versions of the same events: The Chinese government and pictures of the riots indicate it was Uyghur riot and attacks on Han Chinese residents that resulted in deaths and destruction. French official reports put the blame on Chinese police “shooting indiscriminately.” Significantly, the French AFP report relies on the NED-funded Uyghur American Association of Rebiya Kadeer for its information. The reader should judge if the AFP account might be motivated by a US geopolitical agenda, a deeper game from the Obama Administration towards China’s economic future.

     

    Is it merely coincidence that the riots in Xinjiang by Uyghur organizations broke out only days after the meeting took place in Yakaterinburg, Russia of the member nations of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, as well as Iran as official observer guest, represented by President Ahmadinejad?

     

    Over the past few years, in the face of what is seen as an increasingly hostile and incalculable United States foreign policy, the major nations of Eurasia—China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan have increasingly sought ways of direct and more effective cooperation in economic as well as security areas. In addition, formal Observer status within SCO has been given to Iran, Pakistan, India and Mongolia. The SCO defense ministers are in regular and growing consultation on mutual defense needs, as NATO and the US military command continue provocatively to expand across the region wherever it can.

     

    The Strategic Importance of Xinjiang for Eurasian Energy Infrastructure

     

    There is another reason for the nations of the SCO, a vital national security element, to having peace and stability in China’s Xinjiang region. Some of China’s most important oil and gas pipeline routes pass directly through Xinjiang province. Energy relations between Kazkhstan and China are of enormous strategic importance for both countries, and allow China to become less dependent on oil supply sources that can be cut off by possible US interdiction should relations deteriorate to such a point.

     

    Kazak President Nursultan Nazarbayev paid a State visit in April 2009 to Beijing. The talks concerned deepening economic cooperation, above all in the energy area, where Kazkhastan holds huge reserves of oil and likely as well of natural gas. After the talks in Beijing, Chinese media carried articles with such titles as “”Kazakhstani oil to fill in the Great Chinese pipe.”

     

    The Atasu-Alashankou pipeline to be completed in 2009 will provide transportation of transit gas to China via Xinjiang. As well Chinese energy companies are involved in construction of a Zhanazholskiy gas processing plant, Pavlodar electrolyze plant and Moynakskaya hydro electric station in Kazakhstan.

     

    According to the US Government’s Energy Information Administration, Kazakhstan’s Kashagan field is the largest oil field outside the Middle East and the fifth largest in the world in terms of reserves, located off the northern shore of the Caspian Sea, near the city of Atyrau. China has built a 613-mile-long pipeline from Atasu, in northwestern Kazakhstan, to Alashankou at the border of China’s Xinjiang region which is exporting Caspian oil to China. PetroChina’s ChinaOil is the exclusive buyer of the crude oil on the Chinese side. The pipeline is a joint venture of CNPC and Kaztransoil of Kazkhstan. Some 85,000 bbl/d of Kazakh crude oil flowed through the pipeline during 2007. China’s CNPC is also involved in other major energy projects with Kazkhstan. They all traverse China’s Xinjiang region.

     

    In 2007 CNPC signed an agreement to invest more than $2 billion to construct a natural gas pipeline from Turkmenistan through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan to China. That pipeline would start at Gedaim on the border of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan and extend 1,100 miles through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan to Khorgos in China’s Xinjiang region. Turkmenistan and China have signed a 30-year supply agreement for the gas that would fill the pipeline. CNPC has set up two entities to oversee the Turkmen upstream project and the development of a second pipeline that will cross China from the Xinjiang region to southeast China at a cost of some $7 billion.

     

    As well, Russia and China are discussing major natural gas pipelines from eastern Siberia through Xinjiang into China. Eastern Siberia contains around 135 Trillion cubic feet of proven plus probable natural gas reserves. The Kovykta natural gas field could give China with natural gas in the next decade via a proposed pipeline.

     

    During the current global economic crisis, Kazakhstan received a major credit from China of $10 billion, half of which is for oil and gas sector. The oil pipeline Atasu-Alashankou and the gas pipeline China-Central Asia, are an instrument of strategic ‘linkage’ of central Asian countries to the economy China. That Eurasian cohesion from Russia to China across Central Asian countries is the geopolitical cohesion Washington most fears. While they would never say so, growing instability in Xinjiang would be an ideal way for Washington to weaken that growing cohesion of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization nations.

     

    William Engdahl is the author of Full Spectrum Dominance: Totalitarian Democracy in the New World Order.

  • MANY SCHOLARS CHALLENGE THE ALLEGATIONS OF GENOCIDE:  PART IV

    MANY SCHOLARS CHALLENGE THE ALLEGATIONS OF GENOCIDE: PART IV

    I find it important to mirror this work here to help truth-seekers gain one more access the information which is denied them by aggressive Armenian falsifiers, their usually anti-Turkish sympathizers, and other thinly veiled Turk-haters. Hate-based-propaganda and intimidation should not be allowed to replace honest scholarship and reasoned debate. Nothing less than the freedom of speech of those who hold contra-genocide views are at stake. Tools most used to advance censorship of contra-genocide views are hearsay, forgeries, harassment, political resolutions, editorial freedom, and consensus, among others. The key to resolving this controversy is more knowledge as in more honest research, more truthful education, and more freedom to debate… not less.
    Those scholars who take Armenian claims at face value today urgently need to ponder these simple questions, as honestly as they possible can:
    1) HOW CAN ONE STUDY A REGION’S OR A COUNTRY’S HISTORY WITHOUT RESEARCHING THAT REGION’S/COUNTRY’S ARCHIVES?
    Can one study Europe’s history, for instance, without using European archives?
    Or America’s history without researching American records?
    Or Russia’s past without using Russian documents?
    Or Ottoman Empire’s past without using Ottoman archives?
    Why were the Ottoman archives almost never used in most current Armenian arguments and claims?
    Are language barriers, bureaucratic hurdles, cost, or other reasons convincing enough excuses in scholarly studies that span a over decades or even centuries?
    Or is it instant gratification that these, so-called, genocide scholars who insist on ignoring Turkish archives really seek, not really the whole truth?

    2) HOW CAN ONE UNDERSTAND A CONTROVERSY IF ONE CONFINES ONE’S VIEWS TO ONLY ONE SIDE?
    Can you argue that only one side of say, the abortion issue, is absolutely correct, flawless, settled, and worthy of knowing, and that the other side should be totally ignored and even censored?
    How about gun control? Can you say one side is it; the other side to be dismissed, ignored, and/or censored?

    Or immigration?

    Taxes?

    Iraq War?

    Gay rights?

    Or many other such controversial issues?

    Can one be restricted, or asked/forced to be confined, in education or research, to only one side of the debate and categorically dismiss forever the other side(s) ?

    Can this discrimination and censorship ever be built into a state’s public education policy, as it is shamefully attempted by the Armenian falsifiers and Turk-haters in Massachusetts and California, vis-a-vis the 1915 Turkish-Armenian conflict ?

    Is the freedom of speech (of Turkish-Americans,), enshrined in the U.S. Constitution, a disposable right or a privilege, that can be trample upon by the Armenian lobby and their racist and dishonest politician friends like Schiff, Radanovich, Menendez, et. al.? (Racist because they only recognize Armenian dead, but ignore Turkish dead , and dishonest because they dismiss the six T’s of the 1915 conflict.)
    If I, as an individual with contra-genocide views, am slandered, intimidated, harassed, and even threatened for my views by some “opinion thugs” and often censored by “consensus mobs” and “hate-editors”, then is this not a blatant attack on and destruction of my constitutional right to freedom of speech?

    Does consensus mean correct? (After all, lynch mobs always had a pretty good consensus, too.)

    Does might make right?
    3) WHY DO THOSE GENOCIDE SCHOLARS SELECTIVELY REACT TO HUMAN TRAGEDY?
    Why do those genocide scholars— most if not all paid by the Armenian lobby and related institutions directly or indirectly— who love to get on their high horses and preach perfect morals to others, fail to scream murder in the face of that terrible human tragedy in Azerbaijan that victimized a million Azeri women and children in Karabagh and western Azerbaijan?
    Is it because the perpetrator of this inhumanity is Armenia, their client state and the Armenian genocide industry, their paymasters?

    4) If the study of genocide is designed to teach humans how to recognize, prevent, and fight back against new genocides, then why do these genocide scholars not take their client, Armenia and Armenians, to task about the genocide in Khodjaly on 19 February 1992? (Since a genocide verdict by a competent tribunal, required by the 1948 UN Convention, does not exist, yet, for consistency, I should call it man’s inhumanity to man and pogrom for now. The question is why did all the genocide study fail to stop Armenia from committing one between 1992-1994? Can you see the heart wrenching irony here?

    ***
    Here then is what honest scholars (not genocide scholars) say about the fraudulent Armenian genocide:
    ***

    ANDREW MANGO

    Researcher, author and historian, University of London. PhD in Persian Literature, School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS).
    Mango is the brother of the distinguished Oxford historian and Byzantinist Professor Cyril Mango. Mango lived in Istanbul in his early years and worked as the press office of the British Embassy in Ankara until 1947. He moved to the United Kingdom in 1947 and has lived in London ever since. He holds degrees from London University, including a doctorate on Persian literature. He joined BBC’s Turkish section while still a student and spent his entire career in the External Services, rising to be Turkish Programme Organiser and then Head of the South European Service. He retired in 1986.
    Major Publications
    * Turkey and the War on Terrorism (2005)
    * The Turks Today (2004)
    * Atatürk: The Biography of the Founder of Modern Turkey (2000)
    * Turkey: The Challenge of a New Role (1994), Discovering Turkey (1971)

    Relevant Publications
    * The Turks Today (2004)
    * Atatürk: The Biography of the Founder of Modern Turkey (2000)
    Source: Atatürk: The Biography of the Founder of Modern Turkey

    “The decision to deport the Armenians had been taken by the CUP government in Istanbul in April 1915, when Mustafa Kemal was busy defending the Gallipoli peninsula. The Armenians were drawn to the Russians as fellow-Christians and likely protectors. Armenians from Russian Transcaucasia fought in the Russian Army, where they were joined among their kinsmen in Turkey. There were also Armenian risings behind Ottoman lines. The CUP leadership, shaken by the defeat at Sarikamis and fearing disaster in the Dardanelles, exaggerated the extent of Armenian subversion. In any case, Armenians were deported not only from the war zone, but also from the rest of Anatolia and even Thrace, with the exception of communities in Istanbul and Izmir.” P. 161

    Source: The Turks Today

    “The Armenians found it hard to reconcile themselves to the loss of their historic home, even though they had been a minority there. After the Second World War, nationalists in the Armenian diaspora demanded that Turkey should recognize the elimination of their people from Anatolia as an act of genocide. To bring their demand to the attention of the world, violent Armenian nationalists launched a campaign of assassination against Turkish diplomats. It failed in its purpose, and Armenian nationalists concentrated their efforts on securing from various national parliaments resolutions recognizing the genocide of their people (…) As for the genocide campaign, Turkey holds that claims and counter-claims should be examined by historians and not by politicians. In any case, Turks and other Muslims have also been expelled from lands where they used to live and have been killed in hundreds of thousands.” Pp. 22-23

    Source: Sari Gelin: The True Story

    “The objective of the Armenian allegations is political. This is clear and they have more than one aim. One aim is to keep the Armenian nation which is spread all over the world together. The genocide allegations have become elementary, fundamental to the Armenian identity. The second aim is to make the faults of the Armenian nationalist be forgotten. Whatever happened to the Armenians was the result of miscalculations of their nationalist leaders.”
    Source: Speech given on March 15, 2001, meeting of the Society for the Promotion of Democratic Principles in Istanbul.

    “Their prosperity grew until, by the middle of the 19th century, they became one of the richest communities of the Ottoman Empire, prominent not only in trade and professions, but also in the service of state…. Armenian nationalism did not become a political force until after the defeat at the hands of the Russians in 1878. Armenian nationalists aimed at creating an Armenian state in an area which had a predominantly Muslim and largely Turkish population.”

    Source: Turkey and the War on Terror: For Forty Years We Fought Alone, London, Routledge, 2005

    “Western press comments explaining the murder of innocent people in terms of an inter-communal conflict that had taken place 70 years earlier sought excuses for what was inexcusable. […]

    ASALA tried to rewrite history with the bomb and the gun, but succeeded only in adding a new bloody chapter to it. Later, Armenian nationalists used Western parliaments in an absurd attempt to rewrite history by legislative process.” P. 13

    ***

    ROBERT MANTRAN

    Robert Mantran (1917-1999), was professor of Turkish studies at Aix-Marseille University (1961-1985), and a member of the Institut de France (elected in 1990).

    Major Publications
    * Istanbul dans la deuxième moitié du XVIIe siècle. Essai d’histoire institutionnelle, économique et sociale, Paris, Maisonneuve, 1962.

    * Istanbul au siècle de Soliman le Magnifique, Paris, Hachette, 1965, 2nd edition, 1990

    * L’Expansion musulmane. VIIe-XIe siècles, Paris, Presses universitaires de France, 1969, 2nd edition, 1991.

    * L’Empire ottoman, du XVIe au XVIIIe siècle. Administration, économie, société, London, Variorum, 1984.

    Relevant Publications

    * Histoire de la Turquie, Paris, Presses universitaires de France, 1952, new editions 1961, 1968, 1983, 1988, 1993.

    * Histoire de l’Empire ottoman, Paris, Fayard, 1989 (edition).

    * Histoire d’Istanbul, Paris, Fayard, 1996.

    Source: Histoire de la Turquie, 1993

    “On the Eastern front, an expedition leaded by Enver finishes as a serious defeat (December 1914); the Russian offensive which follows is supported by the local Armenian population; during the Winter and the Spring, exactions are committed against the Turkish inhabitants, and an Armenian State is even proclaimed (May 1915); because the threat of extension of the Armenian secession, the Ottoman government orders in May 1915 the evacuation of the Armenian populations from Van, Bitlis, Erzurum to Irak, and from Cilicia and Northern Syria to central Syria. Legal guarantees are given to Armenians about the right to return to their homes, and about their goods, but these guarantees have been not respected by some military; in July 1915, the reconquest of the lost lands by Ottoman Army is accompanied by revenge violence: the evacuation and the regaining control provoked the death of several thousands of Armenians.” Pp. 108-109

    ***

    JUSTIN MCCARTHY

    Professor of History and Demographer, Louisville University. Ph.D. in history, University of California, Los Angeles.
    McCarthy’s areas of expertise include the histories of the Ottoman Empire and the Balkans. McCarthy served in the Peace Corps in Turkey, from 1967-1969. He also taught at the Middle East Technical University and Ankara University during this time. He earned his Ph.D. at University of California, Los Angeles in 1978. He has also received an honorary doctorate from Boğaziçi University. He is currently teaching at the University of Louisville.
    Major & Relevant Publications
    * The Armenian Rebellion at Van (2006)
    * Death and Exile: The Ethnic Cleansing of Ottoman Muslims, 1821-1922 (1996)
    * The Ottoman Peoples and the End of Empire (2001)
    * Muslims and Minorities: The Population of Ottoman Anatolia and the End of the Empire (1983)
    * The Armenian Uprising and The Ottomans,” Review of Armenian Studies, Volume: 2, No. 7-8 (2005), p. 50-73.
    * The Population of Ottoman Armenians, in Türkkaya Ataöv (ed.), The Armenians in Late Ottoman Period, Ankara, TBMM/TTK, 2001; reprinted in Justin McCarthy, Population History of the Middle East and the Balkans, Istanbul, The Isis Press, 2002, pp. 279-296.
    Source: Death and Exile: The Ethnic Cleansing of Ottoman Muslims, 1821-1922

    “Not coincidentally, the Armenian revolt in the eastern Anatolia began as soon as the Russians realized that the Ottoman Empire would go to war. Before Russia declared war on 2 November 1914, Armenian guerillas had already begun to organize into guerilla bands. In preparation for revolt, Armenian revolutionaries had stored vast stockpiles of weapons, largely provided or paid for by the Russian government. These were kept primarily in Armenian villages and were obviously well-hidden from Ottoman authorities, an indication of the lack of Ottoman control in the region before the war… With weapons stored for the expected revolution, Ottoman citizen Armenians began to arm themselves and organize on both sides of the border. Bands were formed in the Kars-Ardahan-Artvin border regions (which had been taken from the Ottomans in 1878) and in Van, Erzurum, and Bitlis vilayets. P. 185

    “At first, Ottoman military units, mail deliveries, gendarmerie posts, and recruiting units were attacked in Mus, Sitak, Susehri, Zeytun, Aleppo, Dortyol, and many other areas… Between five hundred and six hundred Armenian rebels occupied the Tekye Monastery and fought a bloody, day-long pitched battle with Ottoman troops and gendarmes, escaping from Ottoman troops at night… In Diyarbaki Vilayeti, a combination of Armenian villagers and Armenian deserters formed bands and attacked Muslim villages and Ottoman troops. Unprotected Muslim villages were assaulted and Muslims massacred, although the murders could not compare to what was later to befall the Muslims of the east. – P. 186

    “Armenian plans to take eastern cities were brought into force once the war began. For the sake of understanding the chronology of massacre and counter massacre in the region, it should be understood that these and other revolutionary activities took place well before any orders for deportation of Armenians were given.” P. 187

    “The Ottoman response to the Armenian Revolution was approximately the same as that taken by other twentieth-century governments faced with guerilla war: isolate the guerillas from local support by removing local supporters. The Ottomans knew that Armenian rebels were freely supported by Armenian villagers as well as by Armenians in the eastern cities that were home to leaders of their revolution. They, therefore, decided on a radical action: forced migration of the Armenian population in actual or potential war zones. The first orders to that effect went out on 26 May 1915…

    “The intentions of Istanbul were clear – to move and resettle Armenians peacefully. The only verifiable Ottoman documents on the subject indicate at least a formal concern for the Armenian migrants. Elaborate procedures were written in Istanbul and forwarded to the provinces. These covered the sale of refugee goods, the settling of refugees in economic positions similar to those they had left, instructions on health and sanitation, and the like. In short, all looked fine on paper. Articles 1 and 3 of the Resettlement Regulations show where problems arose: Article 1. Arrangements for transportation of those to be transferred is the responsibility of local administrations. Article 3. Protection of lives and properties of Armenians to be transferred en route to their new settlements, their board and lodging and their rest is the responsibility of local administrations en route. Civil servants in all echelons are responsible for any negligence in this regard. Pp. 193-94

    The greatest threat and cause to mortality to Armenians came from the nomadic tribes who raided Armenian convoys. The few gendarmes detailed to the convoys, for example, could not protect them from armed attacks by Kurds. While the tribes did not usually engage in mass slaughter of Armenian migrants, they did kill large numbers of them and abducted their women. They probably caused the greatest mortality by stealing what the Armenians needed to subsist. Despite the regulations, little food was provided to the migrants, who were expected to feed themselves. But the tribes took their sustenance, and starvation was the result. P. 195

    Source: Symposium, Marmara University, Istanbul, 2005

    “The Blue Book written by Viscount Bryce and Arnold Toynbee has been used as proof that Armenians and the victims of the Jewish Holocaust suffered the same fate in history. This book has been said to be a product of British intelligence designed to promote and promulgate lies during World War I. Britain had set up the war propaganda bureau at Wellington House for the sole purpose of promoting lies and misinformation on Germany and the Ottoman Empire. The British were in full co-operation with American missionaries in Anatolia and the American Embassy in Istanbul conjured a so-called Armenian genocide based on gossip, hear-say and erroneous information. The real purpose behind this exercise was to create and strengthen an image in the minds of British military officers that the Turk were evil, horrible and untrustworthy”.

    Source:The Armenian Rebellion at Van

    “The Armenians of Van had revolted against the Ottoman government putting their trust in the Russians, who betrayed them. They and the Russians had driven the Muslims from the province. The Armenians in turn had been driven out. Theirs was the final exodus. Surviving Muslims returned. Neither side, however, can truly be said to have won the war. More than half of Van’s Armenians had died, as had almost two-thirds of its Muslims.” P. 2

    Source: Anatolia 1915: Turks Died, Too . . . See Appendix 6 . . . Anatolia 1915: Turks Died, Too . . . , Published in the Boston Globe, April 25, 1998

    “During World War 1, Anatolia, the Asiatic section of modern Turkey, was the scene of horrible acts of inhumanity between Armenians and Turks. For many decades, the history of the conflict between the Turks and the Armenians has primarily been written from the viewpoint of the Armenians. It is a viewpoint that emphasizes the deaths of Armenians but completely ignores the deaths of Turks.
    The Armenian position has been effectively publicized. Every year in Congress, a group of representatives attempts to pass a bill that says the Turks were guilty of genocide. Newspapers feature articles on events in Turkey in 1915 as if they were today’s news. Over the weekend, the Public Broadcasting System carried the historical visions of Armenian producers all across the country. Unfortunately, effective publicity does not ensure accurate history. What has been presented as truth is, in fact, only one side of a complicated history that began more than 100 years before World War 1.”

    Source: Armenian-Turkish Conflict, Speech given by Dr. Justin McCarthy at the Turkish Grand National Assembly, March 24, 2005
    “The forced exile of the Muslims continued until the first days of World War I: 300,000 Crimean Tatars, 1.2 million Circassians and Abkhazians, 40,000 Laz, 70,000 Turks. The Russians invaded Anatolia in the war of 1877-78, and once again many Armenians joined the Russian side. They served as scouts and spies. Armenians became the “police” in occupied territories, persecuting the Turkish population. The peace treaty of 1878 gave much of Northeastern Anatolia back to the Ottomans”.

    Source: The Population of Ottoman Armenians”, in Türkkaya Ataöv (ed.), The Armenians in Late Ottoman Period, Ankara, TBMM/TTK, 2001; reprinted in Justin McCarthy, Population History of the Middle East and the Balkans, Istanbul, The Isis Press, 2002, pp. 279-296.

    “It is commonly believed that the Armenians of Ottoman Anatolia were nearly all deported to the Arab provinces, and that high Armenian mortality was a result of the deportation. This was not the case. Because some deportees who were sent to Syria and Iraq moved to Egypt and Europe during and after the wars and some returned to Anatolia, it is impossible to estimate the number of the deportees with absolute accuracy.
    It can be seen, however, that the largest group of Armenian refugees were those who fled to the Southern Caucasus. These were not deported to Syria or Iraq. They fled north in three waves: The Russian army invaded eastern Anatolia in May of 1915, relieving the Armenians of Van, who had seized the city from the Ottomans. When the Russian army was temporarily forced to retreat from Anatolia, the Armenians of the region the Russian had conquered accompanied them. The Russians returned in 1916, conquering most of eastern Anatolia, and many Armenians returned to their homes. In 1918, the Ottomans advanced, and Armenians departed for the Southern Caucasus once again. Many of these returned after the Ottoman surrendered to the Allies in October of 1918, but they left once again when Turkish Republican forces retook the region in 1920. The 400,000 refugees in the USSR in Table five were survivors of a much larger group. Contemporary accounts indicate that the refugees starved to death in great numbers, even being forced to resort to cannibalism. Well in excess of 500,000 must have gone north.
    In addition, many, perhaps most, of the Armenians who went to Europe and the Americas were never deported. Those who fled to Iran were likewise not deported. It can thus be seen that most Anatolian Armenians were not deported, although their fate as refugees was misery and death. More Armenians were forced migrants from the eastern Anatolia war were deported, and they unquestionably suffered highly mortality. Muslims joined in their suffering. When the Russians and Armenians advanced it was the turn of the Muslims to flee. More than a million Muslims were forced migrants.” P. 289

    “There were 1,465 million Armenians in Ottoman Anatolia in 1912, before the war began. […] At war’s end, 881,000 remained alive, a loss of 584,000 or 41%. […] To put the Armenian loss into perspective, it should be noted that the Muslims of the war zone suffered equally horrific loss: The Muslim population of the Van Province decreased by 62%, that of Bitlis by 42%, that of Erzurum by 31%. Not coincidentally, these were the provinces of greatest conflict between Ottoman and Russian armies and between Muslim and Armenian civilians.” P. 290

    “The massive mortality in Anatolia was the product of total war in which no quarter was ginve, as well as years in which no crops were harvested and disease ravaged population already ravaged by hunger. All shared starvation and disease; each side killed the other mercilessly. It is no wonder that death tolls were so high. Those who elevate the mortality of one group or ignore the mortality of another mistake the lesson of the times, which is not of persecutors and the oppressed, but of general inhumanity.” P. 291

    “Before the Armenians could be turned into rebels their traditional loyalty to their Church and their Community leaders had to be destroyed. The rebels realized that Armenians felt the most love and respect for their Church, not for the revolution. The Dashnak Party therefore resolved to take effective control of the Church. Most clergymen, however, did not support the atheistic Dashnaks. The Church could only be taken over through violence.

    What happened to Armenian clergymen who opposed the Dashnaks? Priests were killed in villages and cities. Their crime? They were loyal Ottoman subjects. The Armenian bishop of Van, Boghos, was murdered by the revolutionaries in his cathedral on Christmas Eve. His crime? He was a loyal Ottoman subject. The Dashnaks attempted to kill the Armenian Patriarch in Istanbul, Malachia Ormanian. His crime? He opposed the revolutionaries. Arsen, the priest in charge of the important Akhtamar Church in Van, the religious center of the Armenians in the Ottoman East, was murdered by Ishkhan, one of the leaders of Van’s Dashnaks. His crime? He opposed the Dashnaks. But there was an additional reason to kill him: The Dashnaks wanted to take over the Armenian education system that was based in Akhtamar. After Father Arsen was killed, the Dashnak Aram Manukian, a man without known religious belief, became head of the Armenian schools. He closed down religious education and began revolutionary education. So-called “religious teachers” spread throughout Van Province, teaching revolution, not religion.

    The loyalty of the rebels was to the revolution. Not even their church was safe from their attacks.

    The other group that most threatened the power of the rebels was the Armenian merchant class. As a group they favored the government. They wanted peace and order, so that they could do business. They were the traditional secular leaders of the Armenian Community; the rebels wanted to lead the Community themselves, so the merchants had to be silenced. Those who most publicly supported their government, such as Bedros Kapamaciyan, the Mayor of Van, and Armarak, the kaymakam of Gevas, were assassinated, as were numerous Armenian policemen, at least one Armenian Chief of Police, and Armenian advisors to the Government. Only a very brave Armenian would take the side of the Government.

    The Dashnaks looked on the merchants as a source of money. The merchants would never donate to the revolution willingly. They had to be forced to do so. The first reported case of extortion from merchants came in Erzurum in 1895, soon after the Dashnak Party became active in the Ottoman domains. The campaign began in earnest in 1901. In that year the extortion of funds through threats and assassination became the official policy of the Dashnak Party. The campaign was carried out in Russia and the Balkans, as well as in the Ottoman Empire. One prominent Armenian merchant, Isahag Zhamharian, refused to pay and reported the Dashnaks to the police. He was assassinated in the courtyard of an Armenian church. Others who did not pay were also killed. The rest of the merchants then paid.
    From 1902 to 1904 the main extortion campaign brought in the equivalent, in today’s money, of more than eight million dollars. And this was only the amount collected by the central Dashnak committee in a short period, almost all from outside the Ottoman Empire. It does not include the amounts extorted from 1895 to 1914 in many areas of the Ottoman Empire.”

    “A historian first discovers what actually happened, then tries to explain the reasons. An ideologue forgets the process of discovery. He assumes that what he believes is correct, then constructs a theory to explain it. The work of Dr. Taner Akçam is an example of this. He first accepts completely the beliefs of the Armenian nationalists. He then constructs an elaborate sociological theory, claiming that genocide was the result of Turkish history and the Turkish character. This sort of analysis is like a house built on a foundation of sand. The house looks good, but the first strong wind knocks it down.
    In this case, the strong wind that destroys the theory is the force of the truth.” “The plan of the Armenian Nationalists has not changed in more than 100 years. It is to create an Armenia in Eastern Anatolia and the Southern Caucasus, regardless of the wishes of the people who live there. The Armenian Nationalists have made their plan quite clear. First, the Turkish Republic is to state that there was an ‘Armenian Genocide’ and to apologize for it. Second, the Turks are to pay reparations. Third, an Armenian state is to be created. The Nationalists are very specific on the borders of this state. The map you see is based on the program of the Dashnak Party and the Armenian Republic. It shows what the Armenian Nationalists claim. The map also shows the population of the areas claimed in Turkey and the number of Armenians in the world. If the Armenians were to be given what they claim, and if every Armenian in the world were to come to Eastern Anatolia, their numbers would still be only half of the number of those Turkish citizens who live there now. Of course, the Armenians of California, Massachusetts, and France would never come in great numbers to Eastern Anatolia. The population of the new ‘Armenia’ would be less than one-fourth Armenian at best. Could such a state long exist? Yes, it could exist, but only if the Turks were expelled. That was the policy of the Armenian Nationalists in 1915. It would be their policy tomorrow.”

    ***

    MICHAEL E. MEEKER

    Anthropologist, Professor Emeritus, University of Washington, Ph.D. University of Chicago.
    Major Publications
    * A Nation of Empire: The Ottoman Legacy of Turkish Modernity (2002)
    Source: Meeker, “A Nation of Empire”: The Ottoman Legacy of Turkish Modernity” (2002)

    “The Germans and Ottomans had been at war with the British, French, Italians, and Russians for a little more than a year. A great Ottoman victory, credited to Mustafa Kemal, had recently been achieved at Gallipoli. But all kinds of disasters were looming in the eastern provinces of Erzurum, Van, and Trabzon. Already, the imperial government had begun to deport the Armenian minority into the Syrian Desert, where many would die without provisions or shelter. Very soon, the Muslim majority would also suffer massive casualties and extraordinary hardship as a consequence of Russian offensives followed by Ottoman counteroffensives” P. 287

    ***

    HIKMET OZDEMIR

    Research professor at the Turkish History Council in Ankara, Turkey.

    Relevant Publications
    * The Ottoman Army 1914-1918 Disease & Death on the Battlefield (May 2008)
    Source : The Ottoman Army 1914-1918 Disease & Death on the Battlefield (May 2008)

    “In 1915, during the first year of the war, the number of Ottoman Armenians subjected to deportation due to security reasons was 500,000 whereas the Russian Armenians who took advantage of the Russian invasion of East Anatolia forced 1 million Muslims to flee from Caucasus and East Anatolia to safer areas in central Anatolia.”
    P.125

    “In the spring of 1915, the Ottoman government used its constitutional powers and decided on the relocation of some of its Armenian subjects to Syria.” “Deaths” occurring in 1915 started after the “victims” were sent into exile, many of whom lost their lives from starvation and disease.” P.136

    “Another nuance that needs to be taken into account is the fact that a considerable portion of the Armenians subjected to deportation by the Ottoman government during the Great War consisted of individuals who had joined foreign armies as “volunteers”, in particular the Russian Army. In addition, a large number of Ottoman Armenians are found to have migrated to other countries and become citizens of those countries.” P.137

    ***

    STEPHEN POPE

    Stephen Pope is a former Oxford modern-history scholar who has authored four well-received reference books dealing with history.

    Major Publications
    * The Dictionary of the First World War, St. Martin’s Press, 1996
    * The Dictionary of the Second World War, Pen and Sword, 2004
    * The Green Book, London, Hodder and Stoughton Ltd, 1991.

    Relevant Publication
    * Dictionary of the First World War,Pope, S. and Wheal, E. A. (2003). Barnsley; S. Yorkshire: Pen & Sword Books
    Source: Dictionary of the First World War,Pope, S. and Wheal, E. A. (2003). Barnsley; S. Yorkshire: Pen & Sword Books.

    “Armenian Massacres: Allied term describing the Turkish government’s wartime deportations of Armenians from their homelands in the northeast of the Ottoman Empire. Neutral estimates suggest that between 1 and 1.5 million Armenians were living in Turkey in 1914, with perhaps another million inside Russia. Unlike other large racial minorities within the Empire, including their traditional Kurd enemies, Ottoman Armenians had no officially recognized homeland, but most were scattered near the Russian Caucasian frontiers.

    Despite these drawbacks a militant Armenian nationalist movement had blossomed since the turn of the century, armed and encouraged by the Russians, and several minor coups were repressed by the Young Turk government before 1914. Denied the right to a national congress in October 1914, moderate Armenian politicians fled to Bulgaria, but extreme nationalists crossed the border to form a rebel division with Russian equipment. It invaded in December and slaughtered an estimated 120,000 non-Armenians while the Turkish Army was preoccupied with mobilization and the Caucasian Front offensive towards Sarikamish.

    The Turks began disarming Armenian civilians under Ottoman control after a force of 2,500 rebels took Van in April 1915 and proclaimed a provisional government. An Ottoman order in June required all civilian non-Muslims to take up support duties near the battlefronts, but exemptions spared Greeks and the Catholic Armenian business community in Constantinople, effectively restricting the order to Orthodox and Protestant Armenians, who were subject to a military enforcement operation until late 1916.

    Deportees were often given only hours to prepare, and left without transport or protection on long journeys to infertile, ill-supplied resettlement regions. Many died from starvation or exposure; many more were killed en route by hostile tribesmen (usually Kurds), some of whom colluded with Ottoman officials in search of a ‘final solution’ to the Armenian question.

    Released through Armenian contacts with the Western press, especially strong in the United States, news of the catastrophe prompted the Turkish regime – which never openly associated itself with excesses against Armenians – to blame general supply and transport shortages for an estimated 300,000 deaths. Allied propaganda claimed more than a million had died, but modern consensus puts the figure at around 600,000.

    An uneasy peace was imposed on frontier Armenians by the occupying Russian Army from 1916, but rebel forces resumed control in late 1917, killing perhaps another 50,000 non-Armenians. Subsequent attempts to restore Turkish administration caused sporadic fighting in early 1918, until the Treaty of Batum (26 May 1918) between an exhausted Turkey and a new Armenian Republic brought a period of recovery. Thousands more civilians then died attempting long journeys back to their liberated homes.” P. 34

    ***

    MICHAEL RADU

    Senior Fellow and Co-Chairman Center on Terrorism, Counter-Terrorism, and Homeland Security, Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) Ph.D. in international relations from Columbia University.

    Dr. Michael Radu is FPRI Senior Fellow and Co-Chairman of its Center on Terrorism, Counter-Terrorism, and Homeland Security. He joined FPRI in 1983, and has since studied terrorist and insurgent groups worldwide. Various agencies of the U.S. and other governments have called upon his expertise, and news media around the world regularly use him as an expert source, including the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, Newsweek, and Associated Press.

    Major Publications
    * Dangerous Neighborhood: Contemporary Issues in Turkey’s Foreign Relations (2002)
    * Dilemmas of Democracy and Dictatorship: Place, Time and Ideology in Global Perspective (2006)

    * Europe’s Ghost: Tolerance, Jihadism and Their Consequences (forthcoming)

    Relevant Publications
    * Dangerous Neighborhood: Contemporary Issues in Turkey’s Foreign Relations (2002)
    * The Dangers of the Armenian Genocide Resolution, 2007, FPRI E-notes. See A Copy as . . . Appendix 7 . . . The Dangers of the Armenian Genocide Resolution . . .
    *Source: The Dangers of the Armenian Genocide Resolution, 2007

    “Central to the issue is the definition of events during World War I in the Ottoman Empire. A few key facts are clear. One is that many hundreds of thousands (over a million, according to the Armenian lobby) Armenians in Eastern Anatolia died at that time, of exhaustion and famine as well as killed by Kurdish villagers and Ottoman soldiers. It is also a fact that the Armenian community and its leadership in Anatolia at the time took arms against the Ottomans, in open alliance with the latter’s traditional enemy, Russia. Invading Russian troops and Armenian irregulars, whose occupation of the city of Van was the immediate cause of the deportation of Armenians, also engaged in indiscriminate violence, albeit on a smaller scale, against the mostly Kurdish population of the area; and all that during a war in which the very fate of the Ottoman Empire was being decided.

    Whether the Ottoman authorities were guilty of “genocide” in a legal sense is doubtful, since the term itself did not exist in international law until after World War II; in a moral sense, doubts could also be raised, since if “genocide” means intentional destruction of a specific group because of its nationality, religion, race, etc., the survival of the Armenian community of Istanbul, outside the conflict area, is hard to explain. But leaving all this aside, there is one reality that cannot be ignored. That is that whatever happened in 1915 happened under the Ottoman Empire, not under the Turkish Republic, established in 1923. Thus contemporary Turkey is no more responsible for the events of 1915 than Russia is for Stalin’s annexation of the Baltic states or the Federal Republic of Germany for the pre-1914 colonial abuses of the Wilhelmine Empire.”

    ***

    JEREMY SALT

    Visiting Associate Professor in Middle Eastern History and Politics, Bilkent University
    Ph.D., Middle Eastern History, Melbourne University, 1980. Middle Eastern Studies.
    Relevant Publications
    * Imperialism, Evangelism and the Ottoman Armenians, 1878-1896, Routledge Press, 1993
    * The Unmaking of the Middle East: A History of Western Disorder in Arab Lands, University of California Press, 2008.
    Source: The Unmaking of the Middle East: A History of Western Disorder in Arab Lands, University of California Press, 2008.

    “In 1909, agitated by “greatly exaggerated” stories of the activities of Armenian revolutionaries, Muslims turned on Armenians living in and around Adana. Perhaps eighteen thousand Armenians and two thousand Muslims died in this rekindling of the hatred and fanaticism that had torn the eastern provinces apart in 1894-96.” P. 50

    “Over almost a century the long Ottoman peace had been ruptured by ethno-religious nationalist uprisings, often backed by outside powers and often ending in war. In the two decades before 1914, Greece and the Ottoman state had gone to war over Crete (1897-98), where Muslims and Christians had massacred each other; in 1894-96 the Armenians were the chief victims of a complete breakdown of order across the eastern provinces of the empire and in Istanbul itself as the volatile “Armenian question” finally burst into flames; finally, in 1912-13, the attack on the Ottoman state by the four Christian Balkan states injected further toxins into the relationship between Christians and Muslims, just ahead of a great war in which battlefield defeats, uprisings, and the suspicion of disloyalty would lead to the dislocation of millions of people. Many were Muslims, fleeing or driven out of conquered territory, or in some cases moved away from the war zone (along with Jews) by the government for their own safety; a large number were Christians (Greeks and Armenians) “relocated” after acts of treachery and sabotage behind the lines.

    The overriding aim of most Christian civilians was probably to keep out of harm’s way, but uprisings and rebellions by a minority threw a pall of suspicion over all. Of the numerous Armenian groups that took up arms against the state, the Tiflis-based Federation of Armenian Revolutionaries (the Dashnaks) was the best organized and most dangerous from an Ottoman point of view. Founded in 1890, the Dashnaks advocated extreme violence (against Armenian “traitors” as well as Turks and Kurds) with the aim of establishing an Armenian state that would stretch from the Caucasus into the eastern Ottoman lands. …

    When the Ottoman Empire entered the war alongside the central powers at the end of October 1914, the Dashnaks and other Armenian political organizations were still operating freely in Istanbul and across the eastern provinces, but armed uprisings from behind the lines made their suppression in 1915 inevitable. Many young Armenians who had been drafted into the military deserted, joining insurgent bands engaged in general acts of sabotage or crossing a porous eastern border to join forces with Caucasian Armenians fighting in the Russian army or in the volunteer units formed alongside it for the specific purpose of “liberating” the “Armenian provinces” of the Ottoman Empire in the name of a common Christianity. Uprising, desertions, and reports of Armenian collusion with the Russians prompted the military command to issue orders in February 1915 that Armenian conscripts should be removed from the ranks of the military and paramilitary forces and formed into labor battalions instead. …

    In the first half of 1915 the Armenian insurrection across the eastern provinces intensified. By April Van, Bitlis, Erzurum and Sivas provinces were sliding into complete chaos, confirmed daily in reports coming in from the military command and provincial authorities of pitched battles, attacks on jandarma (gendarmerie) posts, the ambush of supply convoys and convoys of wounded soldiers, and the cutting of telegraph lines. What was happening could no longer be described as disparate uprisings; it was rather a general rebellion, orchestrated principally by the Dashnaks and encouraged by Russia. The victims included not just soldiers or jandarma or officials but the Muslim and Christian villagers who were the victims of massacre and counter massacre. …

    At this critical juncture, between April 13 and 20, thousands of Armenians inside the walled city of Van rose up against the governor and the small number of regular and irregular forces garrisoned in the city. The extent to which the rebellion was coordinated with the Russians remains an open question, to which the answer must lie buried somewhere in the Russian state archives, but the effect was to weaken the Ottoman campaign in eastern Anatolia and Persia. …

    The weapons in the hands of the rebels, including the latest machine pistols, rifles, bombs and large stocks ammunition, plus the digging of tunnels between houses, were the proof that preparations for conflict had been made over a long period of time and that the uprising was not simply a spontaneous defensive response to Ottoman “repression” (through the murder of two Dashnak leaders as the result of the governor’s “brutal and illegal” policy) or harassment of Armenian women, as claimed by the missionaries. Indeed, the Armenian charge of Ottoman repression and the Ottoman charge of Armenian rebellion (treachery, as the Ottoman government regarded it) were equally true. The government, the Armenian committees, and Muslim and Christian civilians sucked into the conflict as active participants or as innocent victims were now all fully caught up in a Darwinian struggle for the survival of a stricken empire on one hand and the birth of an Armenian state stretching from the Caucasus into eastern Anatolia on the other.” Pp. 58-61

    “Armenian bands consisting of local Armenians and armed Armenian “volunteers” from across the eastern borders were by now moving from one village to the next, slaughtering and destroying. The men of Zeve took up defensive positions to prevent the village from being overrun but after a morning of fighting were overwhelmed. A general massacre followed. Almost all the Muslims –men, women and children- were killed. The only survivors were six women and a boy of eleven who was saved by the intervention of an Armenian friend of his father’s. … No records were kept, but the evidence of survivors indicates that in all the villages attacked by the Armenians “the slaughter was nearly complete”.

    The Ottomans managed to recapture Van in early August before being forced to retreat at the end of the month. Retribution and revenge killings followed, but this time the Armenians were the victims as their Russian protectors retreated. Tens of thousands of Russian and Armenian soldiers and Armenian civilians streaming out of the province in the direction of the Persian border were harassed by Kurdish tribes as they struggled over mountain passes. Thousands were killed. …

    The uprising in Van precipitated a series of decisions taken by the government in Istanbul. The first was put into effect on April 24, when the offices of the Armenian political committees in the capital were closed down, documents were seized, and more than 230 Armenians were arrested. The second decision developed in stages. On May 2, as fighting continued in an around the city of Van, Enver Pasa proposed that “this nest of rebellion be broken up” by “relocating” the Armenian population across the border into the Caucasus (from which large numbers of Muslims had fled or had been driven out) or into other parts of Anatolia. On May 26 the military high command informed the Ministry of the Interior that it had started to remove Armenians from Van, Bitlis and Erzurum and a number of villages and towns in the southeast. They were to be resettled south of Diyarbakir, but only up to the point where they would constitute no more than 10 percent of the local population. The same day Talat Pasa, the minister of the interior, informed the grand vizier of the decision to move the Armenian population from the Van, Bitlis, and Erzurum vilayets (provinces) and from areas in the southeast corner of Anatolia around the cities of Maras, Mersin, Adana, Iskanderun, and Antakya.

    The following day the cabinet adopted a Provisional Law Concerning the Measures to be Taken by the Military Authorities Against Those Who Oppose the Operations of the Government during Wartime. This law, ratified by the parliament when it reconvened on September 15, authorized the military to arrest Armenians suspected of treachery and to move populations. On May 30 the government issued a series of regulations dealing with the practicalities of the “resettlement”. It was to be organized by local authorities; the Armenians could take movable property and animals with them; they were to be protected en route and provided with food and medical care; on arrival they were to be housed in villages built with proper concern for local conditions but at a distance of at least twenty-five kilometers from railway lines, and only up to the point where they constituted no more than 10 percent of the local population.

    It soon provided impossible to move the Armenians in accordance with these instructions. The army had first claim on food, medicine and all means of transport; it is doubtful whether the government would have been organizationally and administratively capable of shifting so many people in any circumstances, let alone at such short notice; and the Armenians would be passing through regions where Kurdish tribes and other ethno-religious groups badly affected by the war would not hesitate to take surrogate revenge for the crimes committed against Muslims. On the grounds of military necessity, however, a directive had come from the military command that the bulk of the Armenian population had to be moved. What could not be done had to be done. The outcome was calamitous. In the coming months hundreds of thousands of Armenian men, women and children were wrenched from their homes, from the Black Sea region and the western provinces as well as the eastern, and moved southwards toward Syria. Thousands died before they reached their destination, dropping dead by the roadside, succumbing to starvation, exposure and disease (typhoid and dysentery being two of the chief killers), or massacred in attacks on their convoys; the desperate scenes in and around the transit camps, of starving and dying people, of filth and stench, were described by American, German and Austrian officials.

    The survivors of the relocation reached the Arab provinces in a state of complete distress. They were resettled in various parts of Syria. Large numbers were moved to camps set up near Ras al Ain, to the northeast of Aleppo, or along the Euphrates River valley to the southeast. The famine that killed hundreds of thousands of Syrians during the war was at its height when they arrived. By the summer of 1916, between fifty-five thousand and sixty thousand people were said (by a German consul and an American oil company employee distributing relief) to have been buried around the camp at Meskene after being “carried off by hunger, by privations of all sorts, by intestinal diseases and typhus which is the result”. Thousands more were massacred. How many it is not possible to say with any precision: even if the estimates of foreign aid workers, consuls, missionaries, survivors, and local people were not blown up for propaganda purposes, they are not reliable enough for historians to be able to arrive at anything like firm figures. Many were reported killed by Circassians or Kurdish jandarma at the Ras al Ain camp, in the desert northeast of Aleppo, in the spring of 1916. A German missionary visiting the region the following year thought the motive was greed.

    In 1916 a large number of Armenians who were being moved onward to Mosul from Deir al Zor because they had reached the 10 percent limit of the local population set by the central government died from heat and exposure or were murdered near the River Khabur. Survivors said the killers were Kurdish jandarma, Circassians, Chechens, and Arabs. Whether the local governor was complicit in these killings or whether the Circassians and Chechens living along the Khabur River, who had a reputation for religious intolerance and no doubt had bitter memories of Christian mistreatment of Muslims in the Caucasus, had acted “on their initiative” is something that has never been resolved. …

    More than one hundred thousand other Armenians were moved southwards through central Syria to Damascus and points farther south in the Hawran region. Many settled in the towns. Some (even at Meskene) found work as agricultural laborers or artisans or with the railway. At Raqqa (along the Euphrates) thousands of Armenians were living in houses “which the kindness of the governor has procured for the most poor”, while others squatted in a camp on the opposite bank of the river. Within months the situation had worsened because of lack of food and the outbreak of a typhus epidemic. …

    Of the numbers of Armenians who were moved southwards through central Syria, an estimated 20,000 out of 132,000 still died, but there were no massacres. Overall, it is impossible to separate the numbers of Armenians who were massacred from those who died of other causes, but on the accumulated evidence of foreign consuls and aid workers there is no doubt that the death toll from starvation and disease was enormous. Given that the Armenians were in a much worse situation than the large number of Syrians who were already dying from the famine gripping the entire region, this was inevitable.

    As news reached Istanbul that Armenians were being massacred on the way south, the government ordered the provincial authorities to catch and punish those responsible, “but the fact that these orders were repeated on numerous occasions would seem to indicate that they had little effect on the killing.” On September 28, 1915, continuing reports of attacks on the convoys by Kurdish tribesmen, along with shortages of medicine and food and transport problems, compelled Talat Pasa to seek a full government inquiry. The following day the Council of Ministers set up a special investigative council, involving the Ministries of the Interior, Justice and War, which it directed to work together in investigating the crimes that had been committed. The Finance Ministry was ordered to fund their work. Hearings were held across the eastern provinces, followed by court-martials, at which more than one thousand civilian officials or military personnel were found guilty “of organizing or failing to prevent the attacks” on the Armenians or of stealing their property. Muslims were also put on trial for crimes against Muslims. The sentences included imprisonment and some executions.

    Estimates of the numbers of Armenians who were “relocated” between May 1915 and February 1916 range from just under half a million (the figure counted from Ottoman archival statistics) to just over seven hundred thousand. Estimates of the number who died during the entire war (not just in 1915-16) that were made when it was over, even by sources hostile to the Turks and the Ottoman government, ranged from six hundred thousand to eight hundred thousand. In recent decades, Armenian writers have based their arguments on figures of one million or 1.5 million dead. The differences in estimates illustrate a general problem with statistics dating back to the late nineteenth century, when the number of Armenians who lived in the Ottoman Empire (or who died there) were often exaggerated for political purposes. Muslims were undercounted for the same reason. Only the Ottoman government actually counted the population, but even its figures stand in need of adjustment. Justin McCarthy, a specialist in Ottoman demographics, has put the Armenian population of the whole empire in 1912 at 1,698,301 of which number 1,465,000 lived in Anatolia. Hundreds of thousands of Armenians survived the war. Herbert Hoover’s estimate of 450,000 to 500,000 Armenians fleeing from “Turkish Armenia” into “Russian Armenia” is consistent with other figures. Many settled in Syria, and others managed to leave the region altogether, emigrating to the United States and many other countries. Taking all of these factors into account, McCarthy has arrived at a total wartime Ottoman Armenian death toll from all causes of 584,000 or 41 percent of the Ottoman Armenian population. If the Armenian patriarchate population estimate of about two million is to be accepted over the official census figures, the number of dead would be increased by about 250,000, on McCarthy’s calculations, bringing the total Ottoman Armenian death toll from all causes for the entire war to a maximum of slightly more than 800,000. It will be noted that these figures are in line with the estimates made at the end of the war. Other computations put the number of Armenian dead at no more than 300,000, but the fluctuations remain enormous, even between historians who share the same basic point of view about what happened.

    … Captain C. L. Wooley, a British officer traveling through “Kurdistan” after the war, was told by tribal leaders that four hundred thousand Kurds had been massacred by Armenians in the Van-Bitlis region alone. Two volumes of recently published Ottoman documents –mostly the reports of refugees, police, jandarma, and provincial officials- covering the period from 1914 to 1921 indicate that this Kurdish estimate of Kurdish dead through massacre by the Russians and/or their Armenian protégées is probably fairly accurate. Counted on a village-by-village or town-by-town basis, with the names of the killers often being given, the number of Muslims who were massacred across the region is put at 518,105. Hundreds of thousands of others died from the same starvation, disease and exposure that were killing the Armenians. The killing of civilians began well before the “relocation” was ordered and clearly had a powerful influence on the decisions that were taken by the government in Istanbul. In November 1914, Armenian bands operating in the Saray and Baskale regions near the Persian border raped, slaughtered and plundered and in at least one village drove the villagers into a mosque and burnt them alive. This individual episode is fully consistent with the documentary evidence of atrocities committed by Armenians over a period of years and recorded in gruesome detail in the documents coming out of the Ottoman archives. Even allowing for the possibility of lies or exaggeration, the evidence is both consistent and overwhelming. There is too much of it, coming from too many places over too long a period of time, to be credibly denied. …

    The suffering of the Muslims was “special” in its own terrible way: there certainly was a holocaust in the eastern Ottoman lands, but it devoured Muslim Kurds and Turks just as greedily and cruelly as Christian Armenians.

    The Muslims suffered tremendous loss of life (the Muslim population of Van province fell by 62 percent, of Bitlis by 42 percent, and Erzurum by 31 percent) but could survive the ravages of war because they were an overwhelming majority (more than 80 percent of overall) in the territory that the Armenian national committees wanted to incorporate into an independent Armenian state. The Ottoman Armenians were a small minority and could not survive losses of such magnitude. The wartime suffering of the Muslims in this region, against the historical background of Russian expulsion of Muslims from the Caucasus since early in the nineteenth century, suggests that had Russia stayed in the war their future would have been bleak in the extreme. The entire region and its civilian population were devastated by the big war and the secondary ethno-religious conflicts fought out across the length and breadth of eastern Anatolia, from the Black Sea down to the Mediterranean, spilling over into northwest Persia and the Caucasus across to Baku and continuing for years after 1918. …

    The withdrawal of Russia from the war and the renunciation by the Bolsheviks of all territorial claims abruptly ended Armenian hopes for a state that would include the eastern lands of the Ottoman Empire. The Dashnak gamble on a Tsarist victory had failed. The withdrawal of Russian troops and the return of the Ottomans precipitated the flight of thousands of Armenians into the Caucasus, where fighting between Turks and Armenians was to continue for two more years. By the end of the war the ancient Armenian presence in eastern Ottoman lands had virtually come to an end.

    The numbers of Armenians who died during and after the relocation, the causes of death, the identity of those who killed them (bandit gangs, tribal Kurds or Circassian refugees out for revenge, and the jandarma or soldiers who were supposed to be protecting them) or plundered the convoys as they moved south into Syria and Mosul, the culpability of senior officials, the role of the special operations force known as Teskilat-i Mahsusa, and the intentions of the Ottoman government remain subjects of acrimonious debate to this day. A few months before the end of the war, and his flight to Berlin, where in 1921 he was assassinated by a young Armenian, Talat admitted to a friend that the relocation had turned into a complete disaster. Given that he remains at the center of continuing accusations by Armenian historians and propagandists and those who support their case that the Ottoman government met at some point in 1915 and decided not just to relocate the Armenians but to wipe them out, his voice should perhaps be given a posthumous hearing:

    … At a time when our armies were in a life or death struggle with enemies who were vastly superior in both numbers and equipment the Armenians, who were our fellow countrymen, had armed themselves and revolted all over the country and were cooperating with the enemy for the purpose of striking us in the rear. What other choice was there but to remove this race away from the war zones? There was absolutely no other solution. This was not at all an easy task. For that reason, therefore, while this policy was being carried out, some instances of bad management and evil deeds took place. But one cannot blame members of the government like myself for such instances which took place in far away provinces and of which we had no knowledge.” Pp. 62-69

    ***

    STANFORD SHAW

    Professor Emeritus of History, UCLA.

    Professor Stanford Shaw was one of the most prolific Ottoman historians in the world. He received his B.A. at Stanford in 1951 and M.A. in 1952. He then studied Middle Eastern history along with Arabic, Turkish and Persian as a graduate student at Princeton University starting in 1952, receiving his M.A. in 1955. He received his Ph.D. degree in 1958 from Princeton University with a dissertation entitled The Financial and Administrative Organization and Development of Ottoman Egypt, 1517-1798. Stanford Shaw served as Assistant and Associate Professor of Turkish Language and History, with tenure, in the Department of Near Eastern Languages and in the Department of History at Harvard University from 1958 until 1968, and as Professor of Turkish history at the University of California Los Angeles, where he was founding editor-in-chief of the International Journal of Middle East Studies. After retiring from UCLA, he taught for nearly a decade at Bilkent University in Ankara.

    Major Publications
    * The Financial and Administrative Organization & Development of Ottoman Egypt, 1517-1798 (Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J., 1962)
    * Ottoman Egypt in the Age of the French Revolution (Harvard University Press, 1964)
    * The Budget of Ottoman Egypt, 1005/06-1596/97 (Mouton and Co. The Hague, 1968)
    * Between Old and New: The Ottoman Empire under Sultan Selim III. 1789-1807 (Harvard University Press, 1971)
    * Ottoman Egypt in the Eighteenth Century (Harvard University Press)
    * History of the Ottoman Empire and Modern Turk (2 volumes, Cambridge University Press, 1976-1977 with Ezel Kural Shaw)
    * The Jews of the Ottoman Empire and the Turkish Republic (Macmillan, London, and New York University Press, 1991)
    * Turkey and the Holocaust:Turkey’s role in rescuing Turkish and European Jewry from Nazi persecution, 1933-1945 (Macmillan, London and New York University Press, 1993)

    Relevant Publications
    * History of the Ottoman Empire and Modern Turkey (2 volumes, Cambridge University Press, 1976-1977) (with Ezel Kural Shaw)
    * From Empire to Republic: The Turkish War of National Liberation 1918-1923:
    A Documentary Study (I – V vols. in 6 books, TTK/Turkish Historical Society, Ankara, 2000
    Source: Shaw, S.J. and Shaw, E.K. (1977). History of the Ottoman Empire and Modern Turkey. Vol. 2. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    “Frustrated in their hopes of dominating Southeastern Europe through a Bulgarian satellite, the Russians sought an alternative instrument to chisel at the Ottoman Empire and turned to one of the minorities that had not sought to revolt against the sultan, the Armenians. There had been no difficulty with the Armenians previously because they had been integrated fully into traditional Ottoman society, with their own Gregorian millet maintaining religious and cultural autonomy under the Armenian patriarch of Istanbul.

    The international crisis that culminated at the Congress of Berlin contributed to changes in outlook within the Armenian millet. The achievement of independence by Bulgaria and Serbia stimulated many Armenians to hope for the same. The Russian invasion of eastern Anatolia in 1877 was spearheaded by Armenian officers and administrators who had risen in the czar’s service since his absorption of the Caucasus earlier in the century. They contacted many of their brothers in the Ottoman Empire to secure their help against the sultan. The mass of Ottoman Armenians remained loyal subjects, but the deeds of the few who did not left a feeling of mistrust. This was magnified by Patriarch Nerses’ efforts at San Stefano and Berlin to gain European support for an Armenian state in the east as well as subsequent Russian efforts to develop Armenian nationalism as a means of undermining the Ottoman state. The Armenians as well as the Ottomans thus became pawns in the struggles for power in Europe.

    With Russian encouragement, most Armenian nationalists emphasized political goals. When the European powers did not pay attention to their demands for autonomy or even independence, they turned from persuasion to terrorism in order to achieve their ends. Armenian revolutionary societies sprang up within the sultan’s dominions, particularly at Istanbul, Trabzon, Erzurum and Van, among wealthy Armenians in the Russian Empire, and also in the major cities of Europe, publishing periodicals and broadsides and sending them into Ottoman territory through the foreign post offices.

    The Armenian nationalists became increasingly violent, using terror to force wealthy Armenians to support their cause and to stimulate Muslims to the kind of reprisals that would force the governments of Britain and Russia to intervene. They strove to undermine the sultan’s faith in his Armenian officials by forcing the latter to support the national cause. The revolutionary nationalists formed their own terror bands in the east, attacking Ottoman tax collectors, postmen and judges, massacring entire villages, and forcing the Armenian peasants and merchants to hide and feed them on pain of death. But on the whole, their numbers were too small, the mass of Armenians too disinterested, and Abdulhamit’s provincial police too efficient for them to make much headway. The Muslims were kept from responding in kind, though the sporadic Armenian raids increasingly poisoned the atmosphere and made it more and more difficult for Armenians and Muslims to live side by side as they had for generations.

    With the failure of the Armenian revolutionaries inside the Ottoman Empire, the stage was left to those outside. … Their (Hunchak and Dashnaks) programs involved the creation of action groups to enter Ottoman territory, terrorize government officials and Armenians alike, and stimulate massacres. This would bring about foreign intervention and help the nationalists secure an independent, socialist Armenian republic, presumably in the six east Anatolian provinces from which all Muslims would be driven out or simply killed.

    Revolutionary literature was sent into the empire, again through the foreign postal systems; bombs were exploded in public places; officials were murdered at their desks, and postmen along their routes. Within a short time, despite all the efforts of the government to keep order, the Hunchaks had what they wanted, reprisals from Muslim tribesman and villagers.

    It should be recalled that Armenian terrorism came just when millions of Muslim refugees were flowing into the empire from Russia, Bulgaria and Bosnia Terrorism and counterterrorism went on for three years (1890-1893), with the government acting sternly, albeit sometimes harshly, to keep order. …

    The winter of 1895-1896 witnessed large scale suffering throughout Anatolia as general security broke down, but little could be done until the army was brought in during the spring. In Istanbul, the Armenian terrorists, still hoping to force foreign intervention, struck again. On August 26, 1896, a group of Armenians took over the main Ottoman Bank in Beyoglu. … Soon after, a second group forced its way into the Sublime Porte, wounding several officials and threatening the Grand Vezir with a pistol. … Another bomb was thrown at the sultan as he was going to the Aya Sofya mosque for the Friday prayer, with more than 20 policemen guarding him being killed. … To reduce the tension and prevent further clashes the sultan soon afterward decreed a general amnesty and began to appoint Christian administrators in the east, even though the Christians were minorities in most of the districts involved. …

    With the provocations soon forgotten, relations between Muslims and Armenians in the empire for the most part returned to normal. … By 1897, then, the Armenian Question was exhausted and lay dormant until World War I. It is interesting to note, however, that during these last years the Armenians of the empire actually increased in population and as the empire lost territory in the Balkans, they became a larger percentage of the total population.” Pp. 200-205

    “The Entente propaganda mills and Armenian nationalists claimed that over a million Armenians were massacred during the war. But this was based on the assumption that the prewar Armenian population numbered about 2.5 million. The total number of Armenians in the empire before the war in fact came to at most 1,300,000 according to the Ottoman census. About half of these were resident in the affected areas, but, with the city dwellers allowed to remain, the number actually transported came to no more than 400,000, including some terrorists and agitators from the cities rounded up soon after the war began. In addition, approximately one-half million Armenians subsequently fled into the Caucasus and elsewhere during the remainder of the war. Since about 100,000 Armenians lived in the empire afterward, and about 150,000 to 200,000 immigrated to western Europe and the United States, one can assume that about 200,000 perished as a result not only of the transportation but also of the same conditions famine, disease and war action that carried away some 2 million Muslims at the same time.

    Careful examination of the secret records of the Ottoman cabinet at the time reveals no evidence that any of the CUP leaders, or anyone else in the central government, ordered massacres. To the contrary, orders were to the provincial forces to prevent all kinds of raids and communal disturbances that might cause loss of life. …

    Those who died thus did so mainly while accompanying the retreating Russian army into the Caucasus, not as the result of direct Ottoman efforts to kill them.” Pp. 315-317

    “The Ottomans were unable to react more actively to the Arab revolt or the expected British push from Egypt because they were diverted by a Russian campaign into eastern Anatolia. … The worst massacre of the war followed as over a million Muslim peasants and tribesmen were forced to flee, with thousands being cut down as they tried to follow the retreating Ottoman army toward Erzincan…

    Armenians throughout the world also were organizing and sending volunteer battalions to join the effort to cleanse eastern Anatolia of Turks so that an independent Armenian state could be established.” Pp. 322-323

    “Following the revolution a truce was signed between the (Transcaucasian) Republic and the Ottoman Empire at Erzincan (December 18, 1917) but the Armenian national units began a general massacre of the remaining Turkish cultivators in the southern Caucasus and eastern Anatolia, leaving over 600,000 refugees out of a former population of 2,297,705 Turks in the provinces of Erzurum, Erzincan, Trabzon, Van and Bitlis before the war.

    With the truce clearly violated, Enver responded with a general offensive. … On February 14 Kazım took Erzincan, forcing the thousands of Armenian refugees who had gathered there to follow their army back into the Caucasus. … When the Armenians at Erzurum refused to surrender, he took it by storm (March 12), thus breaking the Armenian hold in the north and forcing those concentrated at Van in the south to retreat without further resistance.

    Peace negotiations with the Transcaucasian Republic began at Trabzon. … The Armenians pressured the Republic to refuse, however, so that hostilities resumed and the Ottoman troops overran new lands to the east as the Russians retired. Thousands of Armenians who had retired behind the battle lines expecting a victory which would enable them to settle in new homes in eastern Anatolia now were forced to flee into Armenia proper. Erivan became so crowded that “anarchy, famine and epidemic” were the result.” Pp. 325-326
    “Although Armenian and Greek exiles and their supporters tried to instill anti-Muslim sentiments and national aspirations into the political life of the countries where they settled – particularly in the United States, France and Britain – Turkey effectively countered their claims by pointing out that what massacres had occurred in the past were the result of minority terrorism and not of government policy and that in any case the Republic could no more be held responsible for the actions of the sultans than could the commissars of the Soviet Union for the repressive policies of the czars.” P.430

    ***

    NORMAN STONE

    Professor of Modern History and the Director of the Center for Russian Studies, Bilkent University.

    Following his First Class Honours degree in History from Gonville and Caius College, Cambridge University, Norman Stone undertook extensive research in Austrian archives while living in Austria and Hungary (1962-1965). He was offered a research fellowship by Gonville and Caius College where he later became an Assistant Lecturer (1967) and Lecturer (1973) in the Faculty of History, specializing in Russian history. In 1984 he was appointed Professor of Modern History at Oxford University. Norman Stone joined Bilkent University in 1995 and currently teaches the history of Central-Eastern Europe. He wrote a regular column for the Sunday Times between 1987 and 1992, and made extensive contributions to the media as a book reviewer and a BBC commentator on current affairs in Europe and Russia. During the same period he served as Margaret Thatcher’s foreign policy advisor on Europe. Trustee of the Margaret Thatcher Foundation (1992 to present) and member of several professional societies, Professor Stone is currently working on a book about the Soviet takeover of Eastern Europe.

    Major Publications
    * The Eastern Front, 1914-1917 (Charles Scribner, 1975)
    * Europe Transformed, 1878-1919 (Harvard University Press, 1983 – awarded the Fontana History of Europe Prize)
    * Czechoslovakia: Crossroads and Crises, 1918-88 (Palgrave Macmillan, 1989)
    * Hitler, the Final Report (Harper Collins, 1995)
    * World War One: A Short History (Penguin Books, 2007)

    Relevant Publications
    * Statement Concerning the ‘ADL Statement on the Armenian Genocide’
    Source: Stone, N. (2007). What has this genocide to do with Congress? The Spectator, London.

    “The latest row concerns the adoption of a resolution by the House of Representatives branding the Armenian massacres of 1915 as genocide. What on earth causes Congress to bring up this subject now, almost a century down the line, and relating to an Ottoman empire that has long ceased to exist? And why on earth should these public bodies lecture historians as to what they should be saying? One basic cause seems to be simple enough: money.

    Ever since 1878 the Armenians had become more and more restive and the nationalists started to make the running — even murdering prominent Armenians who dissented and who said (as did the Patriarch in 1890) that it would all end in disaster. In the spring of 1915, just as the Russian army (with an Armenian division in tow) came over the border, there was a revolt, encouraged by the Russians and the Armenians who lived under the Tsar.

    Many prominent Armenians in Turkey also encouraged or organised rebellions because, with the British about to land at Gallipoli and the French training an Armenian legion on Cyprus, they expected the Turks to collapse. In the eastern city of Van the Muslim quarter was smashed, and many inhabitants were killed. The Ottoman government then decreed that Armenians — with many exceptions — should be deported out of areas where they could damage the defences, or sabotage the telegraph lines and railways. The deportees were sent to northern Syria, but on the way they were sometimes attacked by wild tribes, in some cases with the connivance of officials.

    In 1916 — and this surely tells against ‘genocide’ — the Ottomans tried 1,300 of these men and even executed a governor. About half a million Armenians arrived in the south-east and a very great number then died of the disease and starvation that were so prevalent at the time. Muslims also died in droves. In addition, the figure given for overall losses by the Armenian representative at the Paris peace treaties was 700,000 — not 1.5 million as has been widely claimed.

    Genocide? First of all, much depends on your definition. If we take the classic version, then there are serious difficulties. The British occupied Istanbul for four years and had a run of the archives. The law officers could not find evidence to convict the hundred or so Turks whom they had arrested.”

    ***

    HEW STRACHAN

    Chichele Professor of the History of War, University of Oxford.

    Professor Hew Strachan is a Scottish military historian, well known for his work on the administration of the British Army and the history of the First World War. He was educated at Corpus Christi College, Cambridge with a B.A., 1971 and M.A. 1975. Professor Strachan is Chichele Professor of the History of War at All Souls, Oxford University. He was Professor of Modern History at the University of Glasgow from 1992 to 2000. He is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh and the Royal Historical Society. He was appointed a deputy lieutenant of Tweeddale in 2006. He is a member of the Academic Advisory Panel of the Royal Air Force Centre for Air Power Studies.

    Major Publications
    * European Armies And The Conduct Of War (London, 1983)
    * Wellington’s legacy: The reform of the British Army 1830-54 (Manchester, 1984)
    * From Waterloo to Balaclava: Tactics, technology and the British Army (Cambridge, 1985)
    * The Politics of the British Army (Oxford, 1997)
    * The Oxford Illustrated History of the First World War (Oxford, 1998)
    * The First World War: Volume 1: To Arms (Oxford, 2001)
    * The First World War: A New Illustrated History (London, 2003)
    * The First World War in Africa (Oxford, 2004)
    * Relevant publications: The Oxford Illustrated History of the First World War (Oxford, 1998)
    * The First World War: Volume 1: To Arms (Oxford, 2001)
    * The First World War: A New Illustrated History (London, 2003)
    Source: The First World War: Hew Strachan (New York, 2004)
    “In 1894-6 Armenian revolutionary activity had culminated in violence which had been bloody and protracted. Moreover, it was a movement which enjoyed Russian patronage. In 1914 both Sazonov, the foreign minister, and the governor-general of the Caucasus sketched out plans to foment revolt. At least 150,000 Armenians who lived on the Russian side of the frontier were serving in the Tsar’s army. Enver persuaded himself that his defeat at Sarikamish had been due to three units of Armenian volunteers, who included men who had deserted from the Ottoman side. The Ottoman 3rd Army knew of the Russian intentions and anticipated problems as early as September. Its soldiers began murdering Armenians and plundering their villages in the first winter of the war. On 16 April 1915, as the Russians approached Lake Van, the region’s Ottoman administrator ordered the execution of five Armenian leaders. The Armenians in Van rose in rebellion, allegedly in self-defence. Within ten days about 600 leading members of the Armenian community had been rounded up and deported to Asia Minor.
    …The best that could be said of the Armenians’ loyalty to the Ottoman Empire were characterized by attentisme, and the possibility of a rising in the Turkish rear was one which the Russians were ready to exploit. Significantly, the first note of international protest was prepared by Sazonov as early as 27 April, although it was not published until 24 May. In it he claimed that the populations of over a hundred villages had been massacred. He also said that the killings had been concerted by agents of the Ottoman government.
    This became the crux. On 25 May 1915, Mehmed Talat, the minister of the interior, announced that Armenians living near the war zones would be deported to Syria and Mosul. His justifications for the decree were rooted in the needs of civil order and military necessity, and it was sanctioned by the Ottoman council of ministers on 30 May. The latter included provisions designed to safeguard the lives and property of those deported. But three days earlier the council had told all senior army commanders that, if they encountered armed resistance from the local population or ‘opposition to orders…designed for the defence of the state or the protection of public order’, they had ‘the authorisation and obligation to repress it immediately and to crush without mercy every attack and all resistance’.
    It is impossible to say precisely how many Armenians died. Part of the problem is uncertainty as to how many were living in the Ottoman Empire in 1915 in the first place. Calculations range from 1.3 million to about 2.1 million. The difficulty of dispassionate analysis is compounded, rather than helped, by the readiness of Armenians and others to use the word ‘genocide’. In terms of scale of loss such a word may be appropriate: estimates approaching a million deaths are probably not wide of the mark. In terms of causation the issue is more complex. The initial violence was not centrally orchestrated, although it was indirectly sanctioned by the pan-Turkish flourishes of Enver and others. Once it had begun, it did, however, provoke the very insurrection that it had anticipated. The violence of war against the enemy without enabled, and was even seen to justify, extreme measures against the enemy within.
    By this stage –late May 1915- the Turkish leadership was ready to give shape to the whole, to Turkify Anatolia and to finish with the Armenian problem. It defies probability to suppose that those on the spot did not take the instructions from the council of ministers as carte blanche for rape and murder. The hit squads of the Teskilat-i Mahsusa set the pace. This was most certainly not a judicial process, and it did not attempt to distinguish the innocent from the guilty or the combatant from the non-combatant. The American consul in Erzurum, Leslie Davis, reported from Kharput, the principal transit point, in July that ‘The Turks have already chosen the most pretty from among the children and young girls. They will serve as slaves, if they do not serve ends that are more vile’. He was struck by how few men he could see, and concluded that they had been killed on the road. Many thousands of Armenians also succumbed to famine and disease. Mortality among the 200,000 to 300,000 who fled to the comparative safety of Russia rose to perhaps 50 percent, thanks to cholera, dysentery and typhus. The Ottoman Empire, a backward state, unable to supply and transport its own army in the field, was in no state to organize large-scale deportations. The Armenians were put into camps without proper accommodation and adequate food. Syria, whither they were bound, was normally agriculturally self-sufficient, but in 1915 the harvest was poor and insufficient to feed even the Ottoman troops in the area. The situation worsened in the ensuing years of the war, the product of the allied blockade, maladministration, hoarding and speculation. By the end of 1918 mortality in the coastal towns of Lebanon may have reached 500,000.” Pp. 112-114

    ***

    (To be continued)

  • Poor Richard’s Report

    Poor Richard’s Report

    Poor Richard’s Report

    Over 300,001 readers
    My Mission: God has uniquely designed me to seek, write, and speak the truth as I see it. Preservation of one’s wealth while providing needful income is my primary goal in these unsettled times. I have been given the ability to evaluate, study, and interpret world and national events and their influence on the future of the financial markets. This gift allows me to meet the needs of individual and institutional clients. I evaluate situations first on a fundamental basis then try to confirm on a technical basis. In the past it has been fairly successful.

    Prepare for the Worst it is Survival Time !

    Dear and Faithful Readers;
    This will be my last Poor Richard’s Report that will concern the US stock markets and investments for at least one year. I might, from time to time, make a comment or two on current events on a personal basis, but my financial advice is here and now.
    There are two main reasons. The first is that everything as we know it is going down a rat hole because of our past excesses. We must all share the blame. The second is that I have been elected Secretary of the Willimantic Rotary Club of Connecticut. That is a demanding office that requires a lot of learning and paperwork. It is a one-year office, but after the learning period comes Vice President and President after that. Those are the easy jobs, because then one is in a position of authority to delegate responsibilities.
    Before all the bubbles had burst we were in euphoric stock markets. Price to earnings ratios (PE’s) went to all time highs. We were placing bets because it was going to go up. We did not pay attention to earnings, sales, and debt ratios.
    Now the bubbles are still bursting, we have a credit crunch, and we are now putting our faith in two brilliant men, one of which does not believe in paying taxes. Our President is only as good as the people surrounding him. That is why former presidents did not want “yes” persons surrounding him. Some wanted both sides in order to decide.

    WE ARE DEFINITELY HEADING TOWARDS SOCIALISM WHICH MEANS WE ARE LOWERING OUR STANDARDS. EXPECT MORE GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION INTERFERRING IN OUR DAILY LIVES.
    The stimulus money does not produce continuous jobs. The majority of the jobs are one time shots. I believe the Government should have given the public the trillions of dollars to pay down debts of high usury rates that are actually legal extortion. Senator Dodd – where were you?
    As the general public gets squeezed tighter and tighter on meeting payments on a declining home value, they will sell the highest price stock they have to meet payments. This also means real estate is dead as we know it. Transactions can be done between individuals outside the banking system – that is why one sees so many for sale signs “by owner”.
    When I write that we are lowering our standards I really mean it. This has to do not only with what is a normal PE ratio, but a general slowing down of business. This in turn means lower sales, which entails lower debt coverage. This can lead to a spate of bankruptcies brought on by bond defaults. This can be a hazard for all types of funds because the fund managers have no idea where the “next shoe will fall”.
    Municipal debt is also suspect because the voters keep rejecting budgets until they are at the bare minimum. California is right now (July 9, 2009) on an IOU that many banks will not honor. Money can be made or lost by a change in the credit rating of a bond.
    Corporations will have a hard time competing with government debt for their debt offerings. This is happening world wide. Corporations that will be able to borrow will be paying high rates. This can force lesser companies to sink to the bottom.
    One relatively safe place is the 10 year Treasury. It is yielding a paltry 3.50% area. The core deflation rate is 1/1/2% so combine the two you come up with a real 5% rate of return. With the real economy sinking even further in the months ahead these bonds could yield even less; that means to you, savvy purchaser, higher prices. Govt. bonds at this printing are under owned. That is a real positive.
    The “professionals” are telling you not to stay in cash. What they mean is that they need you to buy their junk. Cash is king. Here is an ideal tale. Huntington Hartford was the chairman of the Great Atlantic and Tea Company in the 1920’s. Starting in 1928, I believe, he started selling his A&P grocery stores property and leasing them back. Everyone laughed. Then in around 1932 he started buying them back for pennies on the dollar. Cash will be king.
    Even if we throw out every politician that will be running for reelection in 2010 it will still take a few years to level the playing field.
    The SEC could pay a “finders fee” for successful whistle blowers. If that was the case, the SEC could not have ignored Bernie Madoff. That would make everyone squeaky-clean overnight.
    Bring back the short sale rule.
    Bring money market funds under bank supervision. They are really unregulated banks.
    Separate brokerage and banks, but have them able to competein an equitable manner, and have the rules revisitewd by the Congress every 7 to 10 uyears. The Investment Company Act of 1940 should be abolished. That law was passed to protect the nascent mutual fund industry. Now it is a baby gorilla without diapers.
    The best idea I have read and written about is having a short term trading penality of 80% gradually working down to zero after a holding period of 5 years and one day. That has the potential of leveling the playing field overnight. It would be like the Navy Seabees of World War II fame.
    The bureaucrats in Washington are so scared of emails that they now communicate with little pieces of paper crumbled up in their pockets that have no meaning except to the person reading it.
    The preferred I have mentioned in previous letters is still attractive at current prices because the income is 85% tax free and we are going to be taxed to “kingdom come”. Do not believe our President, but watch what he does. “Tricky Dick” Nixon will now be “Outrageous Obama”.
    The Canadians never fell for our sub prime crap, so they have a pretty good system. Sure they are hurting, but they are pro business. To qualify for citizenship you must have money, investments, and a job. Oh, by the way, you must also be able to speak English. Their universal health care system is falling apart and if we go on one they surely will reverse theirs because their citizens will have nowhere to go when sick.
    The comparison with the great depression of the 1930s is really ominous. The problem then was that the Federal Reserve was leaderless. The real man who was really in charge of the Federal Reserve was the President of the NY Federal Bank of New York, who died in 1928. It is often said he would have raised margin rates. Back then margin rates were 10%. Today margin rates are 10% for Government bonds and certain commodities. The reason for the 10% rate was that there was little movement. If the government really wanted to restore confidence back into the world markets and restore leadership and respect worldwide all they have to do is raise margin rates to realistic levels and raise taxes on short term trading while at the same time reward long term holders with no taxes.
    These exchanges were formed on the theory that they would benefit individual businesses not promoting speculation.
    When our systems were developed it was understood that short term speculators were needed to balance the market place, but excessive use and over indulgence are fatal flaws.
    Only a veto-proof Congress can pass these laws today. They can and should take control and pass these consumer protection laws (that is us, dear reader) and if the President vetoes these laws, then they override it. These votes should be bipartisan.
    During my years with Smith Barney they decided that it was very important to hire someone who knew what was going on in Washington. One analyst remarked that “if I knew the FDA was doing that , I would not have recommended the stock..” Good idea, but wrong people. They rubbed management the wrong way including some of our clients. The last person was Kevin Philips who used to be a speech writer and political advisor for Richard Nixon. He was very good, but way out of the main stream. So we dropped that idea, but continued to muddle through on our own.
    My point is that one has to be aware whyat is going on in Washington D.C. in order even think of investing successfully.
    Then there is an outside phenomenon to be aware of. It is called EL NINO. It occurs when a warm-water current in the southern part of the Pacific Ocean every so often changes its pattern. It is like if the Gulf Stream stopped flowing north for a year. Our weather patterns in the northern Atlantic region would change drastically. It is speculated that Magellan was able to sail around the world because El Niño had calmed the waters at the southern tip of South America. The economic consequences can be awesome. The anchovies swim in these waters, and when they are hard to find, or the catch for year dwindles because the current moved too far out to sea, the price of anchovies rises. Anchovies are not only food that is added to all kinds of feed, but they have certain chemicals that are an important source in basic manufacturing materials. So if the price of anchovies goes up because of scarcity, then we will have an honest inflation problem in a slowing economy.
    To summarize bluntly – we are in the eye of a perfect storm. The price to earnings ratios will continue to drop over the next year or so until the sellers stop selling. The problem is that there is nothing to bring back the buys at this time.
    My recommendation is to sell stocks. Buy the Canada Fund (CDE-NYSE -$11-$12 area) it is a closed end fund that owns Gold and Silver bars held in one of Canada’s largest banks. I would buy the Spider Gold Exchange Traded Fund (GLD- NYSE – $90 area). It sells for 1/10th the price of gold. The reason for gold is that I believe paper currencies will soon become worthless unless we move back to some form of a gold standard. The UBS bank in Switzerland estimates that if the US went back on the gold standard the price of gold would go to over $6,000 an ounce. Wise investors should hedge their accounts just in case paper currencies falter.
    AMERCO $2.125 preferred (AO NYSE $22 area) can be bought below its call price of $25.00
    85% of the dividend is tax-free. That is an 8.68% tax-free return.
    I also favor certain securities in Canada because if their business friendly attitude and their bankers are smarter than the average banker. They were not greedy, and thought things through like Peyton Patterson’s New Alliance Bank (NAL – NYSE- $12 area) and avoided the sub prime and most of securitization mess. Most of these Canadian stocks don’t qualify for hedge fund shenanigans so they can qualify for long term holdings in my opinion. These securities can provide an investor with positive surprises over time. Newalta Corp (Nasdaq- NWLFT-$4.5 area) or (Tor NAL $ 5.15 Canadian) is a fine mid size company.
    US Government Bonds are under-owned by the institutions and I would buy the 10-year or shorter, depending on the size of the funds you have.
    I would hold on to plenty of cash, because as Huntington Hartford discovered along with Joe Kennedy, when the bottom hits, cash is king.
    This is my last major letter for at least a year because I dislike writing negative letters and the markets have to take their due course. We are like a giant oil supertanker that takes 20 miles to change course in the open ocean.
    I will be available for private free consultations at the addresses listed below. My mission is to help you protect your funds – not misuse them. It is better to be fore warned – than blindsided.
    Keep the faith.
    Cheerio!!!

    Richard C De Graff
    256 Ashford Road
    RER Eastford Ct 06242
    860-522-7171 Main Office
    800-821-6665 Watts
    860-315-7413 Home/Office
    [email protected]

    This report has been prepared from original sources and data which we believe reliable but we make no representation to its accuracy or completeness. Coburn & Meredith Inc. its subsidiaries and or officers may from time to time acquire, hold, sell a position discussed in this publications, and we may act as principal for our own account or as agent for both the buyer and seller.

    Poor Richard’s Report

    Over 300,001 readers
    My Mission: God has uniquely designed me to seek, write, and speak the truth as I see it. Preservation of one’s wealth while providing needful income is my primary goal in these unsettled times. I have been given the ability to evaluate, study, and interpret world and national events and their influence on the future of the financial markets. This gift allows me to meet the needs of individual and institutional clients. I evaluate situations first on a fundamental basis then try to confirm on a technical basis. In the past it has been fairly successful.

    Prepare for the Worst it is Survival Time !

    Dear and Faithful Readers;
    This will be my last Poor Richard’s Report that will concern the US stock markets and investments for at least one year. I might, from time to time, make a comment or two on current events on a personal basis, but my financial advice is here and now.
    There are two main reasons. The first is that everything as we know it is going down a rat hole because of our past excesses. We must all share the blame. The second is that I have been elected Secretary of the Willimantic Rotary Club of Connecticut. That is a demanding office that requires a lot of learning and paperwork. It is a one-year office, but after the learning period comes Vice President and President after that. Those are the easy jobs, because then one is in a position of authority to delegate responsibilities.
    Before all the bubbles had burst we were in euphoric stock markets. Price to earnings ratios (PE’s) went to all time highs. We were placing bets because it was going to go up. We did not pay attention to earnings, sales, and debt ratios.
    Now the bubbles are still bursting, we have a credit crunch, and we are now putting our faith in two brilliant men, one of which does not believe in paying taxes. Our President is only as good as the people surrounding him. That is why former presidents did not want “yes” persons surrounding him. Some wanted both sides in order to decide.

    WE ARE DEFINITELY HEADING TOWARDS SOCIALISM WHICH MEANS WE ARE LOWERING OUR STANDARDS. EXPECT MORE GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION INTERFERRING IN OUR DAILY LIVES.
    The stimulus money does not produce continuous jobs. The majority of the jobs are one time shots. I believe the Government should have given the public the trillions of dollars to pay down debts of high usury rates that are actually legal extortion. Senator Dodd – where were you?
    As the general public gets squeezed tighter and tighter on meeting payments on a declining home value, they will sell the highest price stock they have to meet payments. This also means real estate is dead as we know it. Transactions can be done between individuals outside the banking system – that is why one sees so many for sale signs “by owner”.
    When I write that we are lowering our standards I really mean it. This has to do not only with what is a normal PE ratio, but a general slowing down of business. This in turn means lower sales, which entails lower debt coverage. This can lead to a spate of bankruptcies brought on by bond defaults. This can be a hazard for all types of funds because the fund managers have no idea where the “next shoe will fall”.
    Municipal debt is also suspect because the voters keep rejecting budgets until they are at the bare minimum. California is right now (July 9, 2009) on an IOU that many banks will not honor. Money can be made or lost by a change in the credit rating of a bond.
    Corporations will have a hard time competing with government debt for their debt offerings. This is happening world wide. Corporations that will be able to borrow will be paying high rates. This can force lesser companies to sink to the bottom.
    One relatively safe place is the 10 year Treasury. It is yielding a paltry 3.50% area. The core deflation rate is 1/1/2% so combine the two you come up with a real 5% rate of return. With the real economy sinking even further in the months ahead these bonds could yield even less; that means to you, savvy purchaser, higher prices. Govt. bonds at this printing are under owned. That is a real positive.
    The “professionals” are telling you not to stay in cash. What they mean is that they need you to buy their junk. Cash is king. Here is an ideal tale. Huntington Hartford was the chairman of the Great Atlantic and Tea Company in the 1920’s. Starting in 1928, I believe, he started selling his A&P grocery stores property and leasing them back. Everyone laughed. Then in around 1932 he started buying them back for pennies on the dollar. Cash will be king.
    Even if we throw out every politician that will be running for reelection in 2010 it will still take a few years to level the playing field.
    The SEC could pay a “finders fee” for successful whistle blowers. If that was the case, the SEC could not have ignored Bernie Madoff. That would make everyone squeaky-clean overnight.
    Bring back the short sale rule.
    Bring money market funds under bank supervision. They are really unregulated banks.
    Separate brokerage and banks, but have them able to competein an equitable manner, and have the rules revisitewd by the Congress every 7 to 10 uyears. The Investment Company Act of 1940 should be abolished. That law was passed to protect the nascent mutual fund industry. Now it is a baby gorilla without diapers.
    The best idea I have read and written about is having a short term trading penality of 80% gradually working down to zero after a holding period of 5 years and one day. That has the potential of leveling the playing field overnight. It would be like the Navy Seabees of World War II fame.
    The bureaucrats in Washington are so scared of emails that they now communicate with little pieces of paper crumbled up in their pockets that have no meaning except to the person reading it.
    The preferred I have mentioned in previous letters is still attractive at current prices because the income is 85% tax free and we are going to be taxed to “kingdom come”. Do not believe our President, but watch what he does. “Tricky Dick” Nixon will now be “Outrageous Obama”.
    The Canadians never fell for our sub prime crap, so they have a pretty good system. Sure they are hurting, but they are pro business. To qualify for citizenship you must have money, investments, and a job. Oh, by the way, you must also be able to speak English. Their universal health care system is falling apart and if we go on one they surely will reverse theirs because their citizens will have nowhere to go when sick.
    The comparison with the great depression of the 1930s is really ominous. The problem then was that the Federal Reserve was leaderless. The real man who was really in charge of the Federal Reserve was the President of the NY Federal Bank of New York, who died in 1928. It is often said he would have raised margin rates. Back then margin rates were 10%. Today margin rates are 10% for Government bonds and certain commodities. The reason for the 10% rate was that there was little movement. If the government really wanted to restore confidence back into the world markets and restore leadership and respect worldwide all they have to do is raise margin rates to realistic levels and raise taxes on short term trading while at the same time reward long term holders with no taxes.
    These exchanges were formed on the theory that they would benefit individual businesses not promoting speculation.
    When our systems were developed it was understood that short term speculators were needed to balance the market place, but excessive use and over indulgence are fatal flaws.
    Only a veto-proof Congress can pass these laws today. They can and should take control and pass these consumer protection laws (that is us, dear reader) and if the President vetoes these laws, then they override it. These votes should be bipartisan.
    During my years with Smith Barney they decided that it was very important to hire someone who knew what was going on in Washington. One analyst remarked that “if I knew the FDA was doing that , I would not have recommended the stock..” Good idea, but wrong people. They rubbed management the wrong way including some of our clients. The last person was Kevin Philips who used to be a speech writer and political advisor for Richard Nixon. He was very good, but way out of the main stream. So we dropped that idea, but continued to muddle through on our own.
    My point is that one has to be aware whyat is going on in Washington D.C. in order even think of investing successfully.
    Then there is an outside phenomenon to be aware of. It is called EL NINO. It occurs when a warm-water current in the southern part of the Pacific Ocean every so often changes its pattern. It is like if the Gulf Stream stopped flowing north for a year. Our weather patterns in the northern Atlantic region would change drastically. It is speculated that Magellan was able to sail around the world because El Niño had calmed the waters at the southern tip of South America. The economic consequences can be awesome. The anchovies swim in these waters, and when they are hard to find, or the catch for year dwindles because the current moved too far out to sea, the price of anchovies rises. Anchovies are not only food that is added to all kinds of feed, but they have certain chemicals that are an important source in basic manufacturing materials. So if the price of anchovies goes up because of scarcity, then we will have an honest inflation problem in a slowing economy.
    To summarize bluntly – we are in the eye of a perfect storm. The price to earnings ratios will continue to drop over the next year or so until the sellers stop selling. The problem is that there is nothing to bring back the buys at this time.
    My recommendation is to sell stocks. Buy the Canada Fund (CDE-NYSE -$11-$12 area) it is a closed end fund that owns Gold and Silver bars held in one of Canada’s largest banks. I would buy the Spider Gold Exchange Traded Fund (GLD- NYSE – $90 area). It sells for 1/10th the price of gold. The reason for gold is that I believe paper currencies will soon become worthless unless we move back to some form of a gold standard. The UBS bank in Switzerland estimates that if the US went back on the gold standard the price of gold would go to over $6,000 an ounce. Wise investors should hedge their accounts just in case paper currencies falter.
    AMERCO $2.125 preferred (AO NYSE $22 area) can be bought below its call price of $25.00
    85% of the dividend is tax-free. That is an 8.68% tax-free return.
    I also favor certain securities in Canada because if their business friendly attitude and their bankers are smarter than the average banker. They were not greedy, and thought things through like Peyton Patterson’s New Alliance Bank (NAL – NYSE- $12 area) and avoided the sub prime and most of securitization mess. Most of these Canadian stocks don’t qualify for hedge fund shenanigans so they can qualify for long term holdings in my opinion. These securities can provide an investor with positive surprises over time. Newalta Corp (Nasdaq- NWLFT-$4.5 area) or (Tor NAL $ 5.15 Canadian) is a fine mid size company.
    US Government Bonds are under-owned by the institutions and I would buy the 10-year or shorter, depending on the size of the funds you have.
    I would hold on to plenty of cash, because as Huntington Hartford discovered along with Joe Kennedy, when the bottom hits, cash is king.
    This is my last major letter for at least a year because I dislike writing negative letters and the markets have to take their due course. We are like a giant oil supertanker that takes 20 miles to change course in the open ocean.
    I will be available for private free consultations at the addresses listed below. My mission is to help you protect your funds – not misuse them. It is better to be fore warned – than blindsided.
    Keep the faith.
    Cheerio!!!

    Richard C De Graff
    256 Ashford Road
    RER Eastford Ct 06242
    860-522-7171 Main Office
    800-821-6665 Watts
    860-315-7413 Home/Office
    [email protected]

    This report has been prepared from original sources and data which we believe reliable but we make no representation to its accuracy or completeness. Coburn & Meredith Inc. its subsidiaries and or officers may from time to time acquire, hold, sell a position discussed in this publications, and we may act as principal for our own account or as agent for both the buyer and seller.

  • AP sources: Cheney told CIA not to discuss program

    AP sources: Cheney told CIA not to discuss program

    Did Cheney Urge CIA Concealment? Play Video ABC News – Did Cheney Urge CIA Concealment?

    • Slideshow:Dick Cheney
    • George's Bottom Line on Cheney's Role Play Video Video:George’s Bottom Line on Cheney’s Role ABC News
    • Play Video Video:Sources: Cheney told CIA not to discuss program AP

    AP – FILE — In this June 1, 2009 file photo, former Vice President Dick Cheney speaks at the National Press … By PAMELA HESS, Associated Press Writer Pamela Hess, Associated Press Writer Sun Jul 12, 7:28 am ET

    WASHINGTON – Former Vice President Dick Cheney directed the CIA eight years ago not to inform Congress about a nascent counterterrorism program that CIA Director Leon Panetta terminated in June, officials with direct knowledge of the matter said Saturday.

    Subsequent CIA directors did not inform Congress because the intelligence-gathering effort had not developed to the point that they believed merited a congressional briefing, said a former intelligence official and another government official familiar with Panetta’s June 24 briefing to the House and Senate Intelligence committees.

    Panetta did not agree.

    Upon learning of the program June 23 from within the CIA, Panetta terminated it and the next day called an emergency meeting with the House and Senate Intelligence committees to inform them of the program and that it was canceled.

    Cheney played a central role in overseeing the Bush administration’s surveillance program that was the subject of an inspectors general report this past week. That report noted that Cheney’s chief of staff, David Addington, personally decided who in Bush’s inner circle could even know about the secret program.

    But revelations about Cheney’s role in making decisions for the CIA on whether to notify Congress came as a surprise to some on the committees, said another government official. All spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the program publicly.

    An effort to reach Cheney was unsuccessful.

    A former intelligence official, who was familiar with former CIA Director Gen. Michael Hayden’s tenure at the CIA, said Hayden never communicated with the president or vice president about the now-canceled program and was under no restrictions from Cheney about congressional briefings. The official said Hayden was briefed only two or three times on the program.

    Exactly what the counterterrorism program was meant to do remains a mystery. The former intelligence official said it was not related to the CIA’s rendition, interrogation and detention program. Nor was it part of a wider classified electronic surveillance program that was the subject of a government report to Congress this past week.

    The official characterized it as an embryonic intelligence gathering effort, and only sporadically active. He said it was hoped to yield intelligence that would be used to conduct a secret mission or missions in another country – that is, a covert operation. But it never matured to that point.

    The government official with direct knowledge of the Panetta briefing and the former intelligence official said the CIA has numerous efforts ongoing under its existing authorities that have not yet been briefed to Congress. He said they are not yet known to be viable for intelligence gathering.

    The Cheney revelation comes as the House of Representatives is preparing to debate a bill that would require the White House to expand the number of members who are told about covert operations. The White House has threatened a veto over concerns that wider congressional notifications could compromise the secrecy of the operations.

    That provision, however, would have no effect on programs like this one.

    The former intelligence official familiar with Hayden said Congress has a right to contemporaneous information about all CIA activities. But he said there are so many in such early stages that briefing Congress on every one would be too time consuming for both the CIA and the congressional committees.

    The New York Times initially reported about Cheney’s direction not to tell Congress of the program on its Web site Saturday.

  • Azeri Visit to Karabakh Sparks Row

    Azeri Visit to Karabakh Sparks Row

    War of words breaks out as public relations exercise by Baku representatives goes wrong.

    By Samira Ahmedbeili in Baku, Sara Khojoian in Yerevan and Anahit Danielian in Stepanakert (CRS No. 501, 10-July-09)

    A visit by Azerbaijani officials and cultural leaders to the self-declared state of Nagorno-Karabakh was intended to build ties with its ethnic Armenian rulers, but degenerated into the usual verbal sparring within days.

    However, analysts were wrong-footed by an unusually conciliatory statement from Azerbaijan’s president Ilham Aliev after the trip, in which he appeared sympathetic to some Armenian demands.

    Nagorny Karabakh, ruled by Armenians but internationally considered part of Azerbaijan, has been a block to good relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan since Soviet times.

    More than a million refugees fled out of both countries before and during the war, which started in 1991 and ended with a ceasefire three years later. Since then, there have been almost no ties between the two neighbouring nations, while Karabakh declared independence unilaterally.

    Armenian forces control some 14 per cent of what Azerbaijan considers to be its territory, and exchanges of fire are frequent over the line of control.

    The visit to Karabakh, which started on July 3 and was headed by the ambassadors to Moscow of both Armenia and Azerbaijan, was intended to help ease the tensions.

    “I want to stress that neither Armenians nor Azeris are going to fly off into space. We must live together, and therefore we need to create contacts, joint ties, create mutual respect between each other,” Polad Bulbuloglu, the Azerbaijan ambassador, told reporters in Karabakh.

    But, even before he left the region, he had succeeded in offending the locals by following the terminology used in Azerbaijan to describe Karabakh. He met Bako Sahakian, leader of the self-proclaimed state, but presented it as just a meeting with local civil society figures, outraging political commentator David Babian.

    “It is unacceptable that non-constructive statements should be made after a visit, as was done by this Polad Bulbuloglu and his delegates. President Bako Sahakian from the start of the visit held onto the principal of equality of the two sides, stressing that no other format was acceptable, including the so-called possibility of holding talks between two communities,” the commentator said.

    “Such meetings are ineffective, since they once more make people angry, instead of creating an atmosphere of trust, as the authors insist.”

    The misunderstandings pursued the delegates, who also visited Yerevan and Baku, throughout their journey. On returning to the Azerbaijani capital, one delegate told a local news agency that the Armenian president had told them he understood that Aghdam – a region of Azerbaijan outside Nagorny Karabakh itself which is almost entirely controlled by Armenian forces – was not Armenian land, and that he respected Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity.

    The comments were disowned by a spokesman for the president, and provoked outrage in Yerevan.

    “This is an arrogant lie,” President Serzh Sargsian’s spokesman said. “But we are no longer surprised that the Azerbaijani delegates distorted the facts when they returned to Baku, since they always do. The lack of tolerance from Azerbaijani society is clear.”

    Similar distrust was sparked in Baku, where the supposed peacemakers found themselves suspected of selling out the interests of their country. Any suggestion that Karabakh is not actually part of Azerbaijan meets fury in Baku, and Akif Nagi, head of the Organisation for the Liberation of Karabakh, suggested that by meeting Sahakian, the delegates were effectively recognising his rule.

    “As a result of such meetings the fact of the Armenian seizure of Azerbaijan’s territory retreats into the background. By making a statement… about visiting Karabakh through Azerbaijan’s territory, they present this as if it’s heroism. But if you meet the head of a separatist, puppet regime, and basically recognise his legitimacy, then it is unimportant how you got there,” Nagi said.

    He also expressed disquiet that the delegation had included Mikhail Shvidkoy, the head of the Russian Cultural Agency, and appeared to have been initiated in Moscow. “The visit of the so-called Azerbaijan intelligentsia to Karabakh contradicts the interests of Azerbaijan. This visit was conducted at the orders of Russia. Russia is just demonstrating that the Karabakh conflict is completely under its control and that it can make the two sides play by its rules any time it wants,” he said.

    Under the circumstances, therefore, it was not surprising that few observers expected positive results from the trip. However, comments from President Aliev to Russian television after the visit suggested a change of heart in Baku, which has previously been uncompromising in its opposition to any recognition of Armenian rights to Azerbaijan’s territory.

    “As for the status of Nagorny Karabakh, that is a question of the future. A resolution of its status is not one of the proposals accepted by us and under discussion at the moment,” Aliev told Russia’s RTR television.

    “Of course, Azerbaijan will never agree to the independence of Nagorny Karabakh. I think Armenia understands this. Today we must resolve the results of the conflict and secure an end of the occupation. The security of all nationalities in Karabakh must be secured, after which communication must be restored. We understand that Nagorny Karabakh must have a special status, and we see it as being within Azerbaijan.”

    Despite Aliev’s uncompromising refusal to countenance independence for the region, those were still remarkably conciliatory remarks by the standards Baku has set since 1991.

    “Over the last month there has been a flurry of activity in the Karabakh negotiations: an intense round of diplomacy, the visit of the intellectuals to Karabakh and the first visit by Armenians to Baku in a long time, [and] a more positive tone from many of the political leaders,” said Tom de Waal, an analyst from the NGO Conciliation Resources and an expert in Karabakh’s history.

    “President Aliev adopted a more moderate tone than I can remember in an interview on the Karabakh issue. I was struck by the way he said that ‘we understand the concerns of the people of Karabakh’ and that he said that the status of Karabakh is a ‘matter for the future’. Now of course this was an interview to Russian television. I think things will really change only when the presidents say this kind of thing to a domestic audience, but it is a very positive signal.”

    Samira Ahmedbeili, Sara Khojoian and Anahit Danielian are IWPR contributors.