Turkish Forum

Month: June 2009

  • Can Turkey do it alone?

    Can Turkey do it alone?

    Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan says Turkey can weather the economic storm without IMF assistance, but analysts see red flags ahead.

    by Ayhan Simsek for Southeast European Times — 11/06/09

    Stalled talks with the IMF raise concerns about Turkey's once mushrooming economy. [Getty Images]
    Stalled talks with the IMF raise concerns about Turkey's once mushrooming economy. Getty Images
    Despite several tries, the government has been unable to strike a deal with the IMF since May 2008.

    Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan staunchly opposes IMF demands that will tighten up the budget and make it more transparent, as well as decrease public employment and limit political influence over the economy.

    “If they bring us an IMF deal in line with Turkey’s interests, then we will sign it. … They want us to make the Revenue Administration an autonomous institution. That is not possible,” Erdogan told the daily Sabah.

    Though sceptics warn prolonged negotiations could turn off foreign investors, Erdogan has been defiant, saying Turkey can revive its economy with domestic resources.

    Due to a wave of foreign direct investment, the EU candidate’s economy mushroomed from 2002 to 2006 at an annual rate of 6%, slowing to about 4.5% the following year.

    Despite the slowdown, Turkey, a country of more than 70 million people, ranked among the 20 wealthiest countries in the world in 2008.

    The impact of the global financial crisis, however, rocked Turkey. Unemployment rose to a historic 16% last February, and exports declined nearly 40% in May as compared to last year’s figure.

    Economists warn that Turkey’s economy may contract further, estimating a deflation of 5.1% in 2009.

    Some analysts see the IMF as a port for Turkey in the economic storm. If Erdogan and the IMF can reach common ground, the IMF is expected to pump between $10 billion and $20 billion into the economy.

    However, an agreement also means restructuring that economy, which may be painful for small enterprises and trade unions.

    Fears of an IMF “bitter pill” have divided business associations. The influential Turkish Industrialists’ and Businessmen’s Association (TUSIAD) — as well as the banking sector — have called for an urgent IMF deal.

    Exporters, on the other hand, fear the consequences of a bailout.

    “We may need fresh cash from the IMF, but this is a serious issue and should not be done haphazardly,” said Mehmet Buyukeksi, chairman of the Turkish Exporters Assembly (TIM).

    In lieu of IMF assistance, Turkey proposed an incentive package last week, which aims to generate 500,000 jobs, as well as support investments in the country’s poorer regions, and give major tax-cuts to investors.

    It’s not clear whether this package alone can cure Turkey’s ailing economy. Young Businessmen’s Confederation of Turkey President Hazim Sesli welcomed the stimulus package, but said he sees red flags down the road if an IMF agreement remains elusive.

    “With the new stimulus package, a positive climate emerged in domestic markets. We are now looking forward to having an agreement with IMF soon, to expand this positive climate to international markets,” said Sesli.

    “After 14 months of long talks between the government and IMF, now it is necessary to successfully conclude these negotiations as soon as possible.”

    This content was commissioned for SETimes.com
    Source:  www.setimes.com, 11/06/2009
  • Turkish military officials praise Memorandum of Understanding with Iraq

    Turkish military officials praise Memorandum of Understanding with Iraq

    ANKARA, June 12 (Xinhua) — Turkey’s General Staff Headquarters Spokesman Metin Gurak said on Friday that a memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed between Turkey and Iraq would contribute to regional peace.

    Gurak, also the head of the Communication Department of the General Staff, said at a weekly press briefing in Ankara, “the memorandum of understanding signed by the two neighboring countries that have historical, cultural and traditional ties will contribute to peace in the Middle East that is still facing negative developments.”

    Turkish Deputy Chief of General Staff Gen. Hasan Igsiz and visiting Iraqi Deputy Chief of Staff Gen. Nasier Abadi signed a memorandum of understanding on military training, technical and scientific cooperation in Ankara on Tuesday.

    Gurak said that the MoU would lay the legal groundwork for further agreements.

    “Our friendly relations based on brotherhood, mutual understanding and cooperation will further improve with this memorandum,” Gurak said.

    Ankara has sought close ties with Baghdad to enlist Iraqi support against the outlawed Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK), whose members used northern Iraq as a base for launching attacks in Turkey.

    Turkish security forces conducted frequent operations against PKK militants in eastern and southeastern Turkey.

    The PKK took up arms in 1984 to create an ethnic homeland in southeastern Turkey. So far, some 40,000 people have been killed in the past two-decade conflicts.

    Turkey’s military forces have taken tougher actions against the PKK after the country’s legislature extended the government’s mandate to launch cross-border operations against the rebels in northern Iraq.

    Source: news.xinhuanet.com, 12.06.2009

  • Remembering The Turkish Brigade

    Remembering The Turkish Brigade

    in The Korean War


    By Mark Meirowitz

    It is Memorial Day 2009 in the United States, and I believe it is very fitting to remember with respect and thanks the contribution and heroism of the Turkish Brigade in the Korean War. These Turkish soldiers fought with bravery and heroism side by side with American soldiers.

    In June, 1950, following the invasion by North Korea of South Korea, Turkey responded by sending a brigade of  5,000 troops to the conflict. “Turkey is ready to meet her responsibilities” was Turkey’s response to the need for action to combat the North Korean aggressor.

    The Turkish Brigade, under the command of Brigadier General Tahsin Yazici, fought with courage in a number of battles, including those at Kunuri, Kumyangjang-ni, Taegyewonni and Wegas. It is estimated that Turkey lost over 700 men killed in action, with about 2,000 wounded and 400 missing in action.  Over the entire campaign period, about 14,000 Turkish troops served in Korea. The Turkish Brigade received the Distinguished Unit Citation from US President Harry S. Truman and the Presidential Unit Citation from the President of Korea.One commentator said as follows: “The Turks acquitted themselves in a brave and noble fashion in some of the worst conditions experienced in the Korean War. Very little else could have been required or expected of them. Their heavy casualties speak of their honor and commitment. Their bravery requires no embellishment. It stands on its own.”

    There is an expression, “the more things change, the more they remain the same”. The news this Memorial Day is of North Korea’s underground nuclear test. This is a stark reminder of America’s need for friends in this complex world. Turkey is, and has been, one of America’s most stalwart friends. It is a committed member of NATO, and, as we have seen, during the Korean War, when North Korea launched an attack on South Korea, Turkey stepped up and showed its friendship by committing its troops to the conflict.

    Americans need to know this story, and learn about the many other ways that Turkey has been a solid ally of the United States, even in the most adverse circumstances.

    The story of the Turkish Brigade in the Korean War resonates brilliantly and inspires us even until today.

    To the veterans of the Turkish Brigade, we give our heartfelt thanks, and to the memories of those brave Turkish soldiers of the Turkish Brigade, who fell, along with American soldiers, in the Korean War, we say: Thank you from our hearts for your sacrifice, for which we will be eternally grateful.

    ————————————–

    Mark Meirowitz is a business lawyer in Manhattan. He also holds a doctorate in Politics and teaches undergraduate courses in Politics, History and Law at various colleges in the NYC metropolitan area. He is studying Turkish and belongs to a number of Turkish-American organizations.
  • Armenian-Lebanese Swing Vote In Metn Helps Gen. Aoun Emerge As Parliamentary Leader Of Lebanon’s Christians

    Armenian-Lebanese Swing Vote In Metn Helps Gen. Aoun Emerge As Parliamentary Leader Of Lebanon’s Christians

    By Appo Jabarian
     Executive Publisher / Managing Editor USA Armenian Life Magazine
    Friday,  June  12, 2009

    The much talked-about 2009 Lebanese parliamentary elections took place on June 7 under the watchful eyes of both local, regional and international powers. The United States, Russia, the European Union and China anxiously followed the June 7 Lebanese parliamentary elections.

    1.63 million voters constituting over 51% of the 3.169 million, cast their ballots in an election that is considered to have a major impact on Lebanon’s international politics. Many foreign governments closely watched to see which Christian Maronite Lebanese party leader would emerge as the main parliamentary leader of the Christian Lebanese inside the national assembly.

    Many wondered, would that leader be jointly formed by the ruling March 14 partners, the Phalangists’ and the Lebanese Forces’ leadership under Sami Gemayel and George Geagea; or March 8th opposition Free Patriotic Movement’s General Michel Aoun?

    By Monday June 8 noon time, the answer was clear. Gen. Aoun emerged as the leader commanding over 27 seats in the parliament (21 before the elections), in major part, thanks to an important victory of 6 seats out of 8 in the Metn District, delivered by the Armenian Lebanese swing vote.

    Only two ruling candidates barely squeaked through to victory as opposed to seven.  One was a March 14 loyalist, Phalangist Sami Gemayel; and the second was an independent candidate, Mr. Michel Murr.

    At approximately 2:00 AM Monday, a realist Sami Gemayel reached out to the Armenian Lebanese Tashnag supporters during a live speech on MTV Lebanon. He said that he marveled at how the Tashnag election machine worked so effectively, and delivered victory to opposition party. He said that “we need to learn from the Armenians,” the spirit of being so united and of being so organized.   In the May 22 issue of USA Armenian Life Magazine, this writer had underlined that “the overwhelming majority in the Lebanese-Armenian municipality of Bourj Hammoud and the entire Metn region always votes in favor of Tashnagtsutiun. And one can clearly tell how the Lebanese-Armenian vote may ultimately contribute to altering the U.S. Policy in the Middle East.”

    Non-Existent Popular Mandate Vs. Parliamentary Victory
    The March 14 political ruling bloc can claim a parliamentary victory. But on the streets it is far from having a popular mandate. Out of one million six hundred thousand (1,634,181) voters only seven hundred twelve thousand (712,902) voters cast their ballots in favor of the ruling March 14 candidates. In contrast, over nine hundred twenty one thousand (921,279) electorate cast their votes in favor of the March 8 opposition candidates.

    The ruling March 14 political bloc is a fragile association between a small segment of the Maronite Christians, Sunnites, and other minorities including the Druze, some Shiites and some Greek Orthodox Christians. The March 8 opposition alliance is mainly formed by Christian Maronites, Shites, Greek Orthodox Christians, Christian Armenians and some Druze, and Sunnis.

    The Story Behind The Story
    The story behind the story is March 8th camp’s staunch opposition to March 14th leader Saad Hariri’s intention to help the country’s sizeable mostly Sunni Palestinian refugees acquire Lebanese citizenship thus helping boost the dwindling presence of the traditional Sunni Lebanese community. Both Christian Maronite and Shiite Lebanese majorities actively support General Aoun in opposing such maneuvering by Mr. Hariri. They are keenly aware that Hariri’s plans would tip the balance to their detriment and in favor of the Lebanese Sunnis.

    That’s why the clear majority of the Maronite Lebanese defied Maronite Patriarch Sfeir’s 11th hour advice to vote against Aoun’s party. Gen. Aoun registered impressive victories in Kessrouan and in most of the Christian stronghold of Mt. Lebanon region.

    Many Christian and Moslem Lebanese feel that Israel should respect the Palestinians’ right to return to their homeland. They blame Israel for most of the problems of Lebanon and the Middle East. They point to the key year of 1948 when the Zionist Jews from around the world began migrating to Palestine to create the state of Israel; and initiated a campaign to usurp Arab lands in Palestine and to systematically uproot its Arab inhabitants. A large segment of the Palestinian refugees were accepted into Lebanon.

    Emergence Of The Armenian As An Important Lebanese Language
    In order to reach out to the Armenian-Lebanese voters, the two major camps, March 8 and March 14, allocated sizeable budgets for media and billboard advertising in Armenian language.

    During the entire length of the campaign, several political messages and slogans were also presented in Armenian in various parts of the country. Besides Arabic, English, and French, Armenian has been featured as the fourth most important language in Lebanon. Two out of four Lebanese major TV networks – The Future TV and Orange TV regularly feature programs in Armenian.

    Lebanon Reinvents Itself As The Traditional Bastion Of Democracy In Middle East
    Setting the election results aside, Lebanon has reinvented itself as the traditional bastion of democracy in the entire Middle East eclipsing both Turkey’s fledgling and Israel’s predominantly Jewish democracies. Neither Turkey nor Israel can boast to have inclusive democracies. Many observers agree that the sizeable Palestinian Arab minority in Israel is under-represented in the Israeli Knesset; and the minorities in Turkey are either not represented or terribly under-represented.

    Armenian-Lebanese Hard-ball Politics Due To Incomplete Reinstatement of Their Right To Accurate Representation In The Parliament
    The siphoning off of the four Armenian seats out of six from the Armenian Lebanese majority by Mr. Hariri’s Sunni voters in Zahle, Beirut I, Beirut II, and Beirut III, Lebanon’s parliament is condemned by thousands of Lebanese both inside and outside the country.

    Hopefully in the future that inequity may be solved by Mr. Hariri’s recognition that the Armenian Lebanese have the right to get reunited. Past experience has shown that even though the Armenian Lebanese Tashnag party continuously enjoyed the backing of over 75% (80% in 2009 elections), it has always reached out to the minority Armenian Lebanese Ramgavar and Hunchak parties by including a Ramgavar and a Hunchak candidate in its party list (Antranig Manoukian and Ara Yerevanian in the 1970’s).

    The defrauding 2000 parliamentary election laws under the late Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, stripped the Armenian Lebanese Tashnag-leaning majority of the right to directly elect its real representatives. Therefore, the Tashnag party had boycotted the 2005 parliamentary elections.

    It was after the 2008 Doha agreement that the traditional Armenian Lebanese Parliamentary Bloc was able to partially reinstate the Armenian Lebanese Tashnag-leaning majority’s right to genuine representation.

    During this year’s election, that reinstatement process was partially completed, because Mr. Hariri once more interfered in the intra-Armenian Lebanese consensus-building process by imposing his hand-picked Armenian Lebanese individuals against the will of the majority by abusing the votes of his Sunni and non-Armenian Christian constituents who outnumber the Armenian Lebanese voters in Beirut I, II and III; and in Zahle. The Hariri-led Sunnis voted against the interests of the traditional Armenian Lebanese Parliamentary Block.

    To its credit, even under these adverse political conditions and in order to create consensus among both Tashnag supporters and Ramgavar/Hunchak supporters, the Tashnag party has once more put its goodwill to good use by again including non-Tashnag individuals like Arthur Nazarian in its list. It is hopeful that in the future Mr. Hariri will show his goodwill toward the Armenian Lebanese community by letting the community create its consensus list, thus reunifying the various Armenian Lebanese political segments around a mutually acceptable list.

    It’s also hopeful that the individual exploiters of the current discord between Hariri and Tashnag party abstain from self-interest at the expense of the majority; and re-align themselves behind the reunification of the Armenian Lebanese community.

    The resuscitation of the all-inclusive Tashnag-Ramgavar-Hunchak coalition is a basic human right that the Armenian Lebanese community desperately needs and deserve. In the absence of goodwill on the part of the ruling March 14, the Armenian Lebanese majority has no choice but play hard-ball politics.

  • Turkey Reports Signs of Economic Recovery

    Turkey Reports Signs of Economic Recovery

    Turkey Reports Signs of Economic Recovery

    Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 6 Issue: 112
    June 11, 2009
    By: Saban Kardas
    Data recently released by the Turkish Statistics Institute (TurkStat) has raised expectations that the economy might be on its way to recovery. According to TurkStat, the capacity utilization rate within the Turkish manufacturing sector increased for the third consecutive month in May (www.tuik.gov.tr, June 10). Although the improvement is attributed largely to the AKP government’s economic stimulus packages, it remains uncertain whether domestic demand alone can sustain economic development.

    Starting in the second half of 2008, the Turkish economy felt the impact of the global financial crisis: industrial production output, exports, economic growth and industrial capacity utilization rates dropped dramatically, while unemployment soared (EDM, February 18). In January and February, the industrial capacity utilization rate dropped to 63.8 percent and hit a record low in the last two decades, presenting the starkest evidence of the contraction within the Turkish economy. In an attempt to prevent a deeper recession, the Central Bank gradually cut its interest rates. In addition, the AKP government, which was under fire for failing to take effective precautions, adopted several economic packages. In March, temporary tax cuts were introduced in major sectors including automotive, housing and household appliances in order to stimulate domestic demand (EDM, March 16).

    Recent economic trends indicate that these precautions slowed the pace of the downturn. In March, the capacity utilization rate increased for the first time since September 2008 and has continued to climb; it moved from 63.8 percent in February to 64.7 in March, and to 66.8 in April and 70.4 percent in May.

    While confirming this trend, TurkStat’s report highlighted low domestic and foreign demand as the major factors negatively affecting the capacity utilization. Although in May the capacity utilization rate indicated a 12 percent decline compared to the previous year, demonstrating the extent of the economic downturn, the report provided other signs of recovery. The production volume in May increased by 7.6 percent compared to April, which is estimated to continue growing by 6.7 percent in June. The sales volume increased by 6.4 percent in May and this is forecast to continue in June (www.tuik.gov.tr, June 10).

    The recent figures were interpreted by government officials as a sign that Turkey might be able to mitigate the full impact of the crisis. The Minister of Trade and Industry Nihat Ergun attributed the growth in the capacity utilization to the production triggered by the government’s earlier economic packages. He argued that a slow recovery was now under way. Nonetheless, he avoided drawing an overly optimistic picture, and added that without the complementary expansion in foreign demand, the recovery might be short-lived (www.cnnturk.com, June 10).

    Indeed, following the introduction of the latest economic package, several companies that were considering halting their production dropped these plans. Likewise, many companies that had applied for the government sponsored short term pay compensation, in order not to lay off their employees stopped receiving those benefits and began paying full salaries (Zaman, April 13). Moreover, a report published by an Ankara-based think-tank found that a majority of the automotive sales were financed by consumer savings and seller credits, rather than bank loans. The report suggested that this might prove an important indicator, signaling the growing consumer confidence in the market -a key factor for economic recovery (www.tepav.org.tr, June 4).

    The stimulus package has provided temporary relief, but it is uncertain what will occur after the tax incentives expire this month. Since the global economy is unlikely to recover in the short term, foreign demand cannot serve as the main stimulant for the Turkish economy. Therefore, the key question might be whether Turkey’s domestic demand can sustain its economic growth. Some experts maintain that with improved economic coordination and more intensive public involvement in the functioning of the economy, Turkey can stimulate domestic demand and maintain its economic growth (www.tepav.org.tr, May 27). However, other analysts expect that, short of any major surge in foreign demand, it will be difficult to sustain such economic growth in the second half of 2009. On the contrary, they forecast that the automotive sector is likely to face “renewed sharp contraction in the second half of 2009 and a slow recovery beyond that” (Hurriyet Daily News, May 29).

    Since the automotive sector is one of the engines of Turkish economic development, the government needs to implement additional measures to redress the deficit caused by this contraction. With such considerations in mind, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the fifth economic incentives package on June 4. The package seeks to enhance the economy’s competitive power and eliminate regional discrepancies through region, sector and project specific incentives and investments. Businesses investing in poorer regions such as in eastern Turkey will be entitled to free land, tax breaks on corporate taxation, and government assistance for employees’ social security premiums, etc. An additional package aims to reduce unemployment by funding various seasonal public works, such as repairing schools and hospitals and planting trees, as well as providing vocational training. With this new package, the total cost of the stimulus packages for 2009 and 2010 is expected to reach 60 billion TL ($38.7 billion) (www.32gunhaber.com, June 4).

    The government’s economic policy is driven by the need to reduce the impact of the crisis on households to prevent the erosion of its political popularity. In this context, it has elongated the negotiations with the IMF to sign a loan deal, which might have imposed tighter budgetary rules on public spending. Recent reports suggest that in response to the signs of recovery, the treasury has an alternative plan to continue the economic program without a stand-by agreement with the IMF (Referans, May 20). The government has managed to slow the downturn and escape a deep recession, but it is still too early to determine when the Turkish economy will experience a permanent recovery. Moreover, if the global crisis continues beyond 2009 the heavy financial burden of the stimulus packages on the budget might return to haunt the Turkish economy, and possibly damage the government’s popularity.

    https://jamestown.org/program/turkey-reports-signs-of-economic-recovery/
  • Greek Cyprus and Turkey clash over oil exploration

    Greek Cyprus and Turkey clash over oil exploration

    Published: Thursday 11 June 2009   

    Cyprus said on 10 June it would press on with offshore oil exploration, despite strong objections from Turkey, and would open new fields for hydrocarbon research by early next year.

    Cypriot Industry Minister Antonis Paschalides told Reuters in an interview that Turkey’s decision to send warships to the area last year had not deterred investors eager to search for oil and gas in the eastern Mediterranean. 

    The first exploration deal was clinched with US company Noble Energy, which has already found a large gas reservoir off nearby Israel. 

    “The first round has been completed,” he said. “We expect that around the end of this year, the beginning of next, we can proceed with the second licensing round.” 

    In 2007, Cyprus launched its first licensing round for hydrocarbons in 11 offshore blocks, most in deepwater locations, despite objections from Turkey, which invaded the north of Cyprus in 1974 after a brief Greek-inspired coup. 

    In November last year, EU member Cyprus protested to the United Nations that Turkish warships had repeatedly harassed Norwegian research vessels off the southern rim of the island over blocks earmarked for exploration. 

    Turkey, which lies north of Cyprus, said the research ships had encroached on its continental shelf. 

    On Wednesday, Turkish officials called on Cyprus to abandon the project, saying the Greek Cypriot government in the south did not represent the whole island. 

    “We expect the Greek Cypriot authorities to end their calls for international tender,” said a Turkish foreign ministry official who requested anonymity. “Insistence […] will adversely affect the peace and stability on the island of Cyprus, as well as in the Eastern Mediterranean region.” 

    Paschalides said the incidents involving Turkey were not deterring companies from a second round, which would offer 12 blocks in a process where companies acquire data with the option of moving on to exploration, then exploitation. 

    “From the interest shown, there is no discouragement. We are optimistic that big companies are interested, international companies from many countries such as the United States, Russia, China and European countries.” 

    Israel’s find encouraging 

    The 12 plots include 10 from the first round but with more research data, and another two which have just opened for exploration. 

    Cyprus, over-reliant on heavy fuel oil imports and slow to switch to cleaner energy, was encouraged by Israel’s discovery because the area is only 65 km from the Cypriot field that Noble Energy will be exploring. 

    “We are optimistic if we take into account the Israel plot, where huge quantities of gas were found, neighbouring our own,” Paschalides said. 

    Asked whether Cyprus would change its planning after Turkey’s reaction, he said: “Not at all […] any natural wealth of Cyprus belongs to the Republic of Cyprus and the Cyprus people, and only them. We wish that the Cyprus problem would be solved so the Turkish Cypriots, as citizens of this Republic, could reap the same benefits.” 

    Turkish Cypriots in the north of the divided island say their Greek Cypriot rivals have no authority to explore for oil or gas and have warned the dispute could upset reunification talks. 

    Paschalides said Cyprus would continue to block EU aspirant Turkey’s energy negotiations with Brussels as a result of this dispute and intended to open more areas for exploration in future. 

    “How can Turkey stake claims and want to get into Europe, want to open the energy chapter, yet question the sovereign rights of an EU member state?,” he said. “What will Turkey do? Go and attack US research vessels?” 

    (EurActiv with Reuters.)