Upcoming Election
Presidential Elections (August 2014)
1- Turkish presidential elections will take place on August 10 (First Round) and August 24 (Second Round). The winner needs to receive over 50 percent of votes to get elected. If no candidate wins a majority in the first round, two candidates receiving most votes will compete in the second round.
2-According to the Turkish constitution, presidential candidates need to be 40 years of age or older, college graduate, qualified to be a member of parliament (but not necessarily a current member). In addition, for an individual to run in the contest, at least 20 members of parliament need to petition on his or her behalf. Given the party structure and discipline in Turkey, it is expected that every major party will nominate a presidential candidate; thus, no more than 4 nominees (even less in the case of a joint candidate) will compete in the elections.
3- It is no secret that Prime Minister Erdogan is interested in becoming the 12th President of Turkey. If he decides to run and gets elected, then the ruling AKP, which still holds the majority in the parliament, will need to select his replacement as the chairman of the party and prime minister. If Mr. Erdogan runs for presidency and loses, he will still keep his current position. There is no constitutional need for Mr. Erdogan to resign his office to run for presidency.
Poll Results
If elections held today (among potential presidential candidates)
| DATE
May 5 May 5 May 2 April 29 April 25 Feb 3 Feb 2 | POLL
ORC OPTIMAR TUSIVAR METROPOLL ORC CIHAN GEZICI | GUL
– 23 24 23 – 47 29 | ERDOGAN
52 24 35 26 51 17 20 | BASBUG
– 11 16 16 – – – | AKSENER
– – 9 4 – – – | BAYKAL
– – 3 – – – – | KILICDAR.
– – – 3 – 7 28 | BAHCELI
– – – 3 – 5 12 |
Parties and nominees (no party has yet declared a nominee)
Who should be the AKP nominee? (among AKP supporters)
DATE May 5 May 2 April 29 Feb 2 |
POLL OPTIMAR TUSIVAR MAK GEZICI |
GUL 39 33 12 29 |
ERDOGAN 49 58 70 20 |
DAVUTOGLU - - 6 28 |
ARINC - 3 4 12 |
Who should be the CHP nominee? (among CHP supporters)
DATE May 5 May 2 April 29 April 25 |
POLL OPTIMAR TUSIVAR MAK ORC |
KILICDAROGLU 13 5 47 13 |
BAYKAL 6 8 17 - |
BUYUKERSEN - 4 7 - |
BASBUG 28 46 5 7 |
Who should be the MHP nominee? (among MHP supporters)
DATE May 5 May 2 April 29 April 25 |
POLL OPTIMAR TUSIVAR MAK ORC |
BAHCELI 25 9 20 31 |
AKSENER 17 36 34 32 |
HALACOGLU - - 14 - |
VURAL - - 10 - |
Who should succeed Prime Minister Erdogan if he runs and gets elected as president?
DATE May 5 May 2 April 29 |
POLL OPTIMAR TUSIVAR MAK |
DAVUTOGLU 5 12 19 |
GUL 15 34 17 |
ARINC 3 19 16 |
KURTULMUS 3 15 15 |
YILDIRIM - - 13 |
Past Election Results
2009 Local Elections
AKP
38.4
|
CHP
23.0
|
MHP
15.9
|
DTP 5.7 |
OTHER 17.0 |
2011 Parliamentary Elections
AKP 49.8 |
CHP
25.9
|
MHP
13.1
|
BDP/IND
6.5
|
OTHER 14.7 |
2014 Local Elections
AKP 45.2 |
CHP 28.8 |
MHP 15.2 |
BDP/HDP 5.8 |
OTHER 5.0 |
Maps
By Talha Oz, George Mason University
Click image for larger view
Poll Results
2014 Local Elections (March 30)
DATE March 27 March 18 March 17 March 12 March 8 March 5 March 5 Feb 14 Feb 12 Feb 11 Feb 7 Feb 6 Feb 4 Feb 4 Feb 3
Feb 2 Feb 1 Jan 31 Jan 28 Jan 27 Jan 16 Jan 10 Jan 8 |
POLL GEZICI ANDY-AR Anonymous ORC ANAR KONDA Metropoll GEZICI OPTIMAR DI-EN DENGE ORC AG ANDY-AR CIHAN
GEZICI KONSENSUS KONDA GENAR METROPOLL CUMHURIYET DENGE SONAR |
AKP 46.2 40.7 29.7 45.7 46.9 49.4 41.7 37.6 44.8 36.8 48.5 45.0 47.0 43.5 36.4 39.9 41.7 47.7 48.8 43.2 35.5 47.5 42.3 |
CHP 27.2 31.2 33.2 28.3 30.1 21.8 30.9 31.3 29.3 26.4 29.7 29.3 28.0 29.3 28.8 31.3 29.5 28.2 28.0 28.1 26.7 28.9 29.8 |
MHP 15.5 17.2 21.3 16.0 14.3 15.8 16.7 20.6 14.2 18.3 14.1 15.1 14.0 13.6 20.5 19.2 15.4 14.4 13.0 15.0 15.1 12.7 18.7 |
BDP 7.1 6.8 7.6 6.0 5.8 8.3 8.3 7.6 5.6 6.4 5.5 6.2 9.0 6.5 7.4 7.8 6.5 5.9 6.5 9.7 7.6 7.1 5.6 |
OTHER 4.0 4.0 8.2 4.0 2.9 4.7 2.4 2.7 4.9 10.2 1.9 4.4 2.0 5.1 6.9 1.8 6.9 3.7 3.7 4.0 15.1 3.6 3.6 |
Major Cities
Istanbul
DATE March 18
March 18
March 18
March 17
March 12
Feb 13
Feb 11 Feb 10 Jan 24
Jan 17 Jan 9 Jan 3 |
POLL ANDY-AR
KONSENSUS
SONAR
Anonymous
GEZICI
DENGE
DI-EN MAK SONAR
GEZICI KONDA ORC |
LEADING PARTY AKP AKP AKP CHP AKP AKP AKP AKP CHP AKP AKP AKP |
SPREAD 2.2 3.6 4.7 1.9 6.3 14.0 7.4 7.0 0.3 8.8 17.7 9.1 |
Ankara
DATE March 19 March 18 March 18 March 18 March 17 March 11 Feb 11 Feb 10 Jan 17
Jan 3 |
POLL OPTIMAR ANDY-AR KONSENSUS SONAR Anonymous GEZICI DI-EN MAK GEZICI
ORC |
LEADING PARTY CHP CHP CHP AKP CHP AKP AKP AKP AKP AKP |
SPREAD 0.3 0.4 1.8 6.3 7.6 5.1 5.8 9.0 7.2 13.4 |
Izmir
DATE March 18 March 18 March 18 Feb 11 Jan 17
Jan 8 |
POLL ANDY-AR KONSENSUS SONAR DI-EN GEZICI
ORC |
LEADING PARTY CHP CHP CHP CHP CHP CHP |
SPREAD 19.8 15.6 19.7 6.1 6.9 5.2 |