by AYDOĞAN VATANDAŞ
Revelations by WikiLeaks received enormous coverage last week in the media around the globe. But in some parts of the world, like Turkey for instance, where these revelations have some of the greatest potential to sow controversy, they have caused an influential ripple.
The documents revealed by WikiLeaks also caused a great controversy in Arab countries as well. Some of these “secret” messages include various communications from various Arab heads of state, allegedly including the Saudi king himself, putting pressure on America to strike against Iran and put an end to its nuclear program.
I was not surprised when I noticed these allegations in the documents because it was only several weeks ago when I read the same allegation in an Atlantic Monthly piece written by a very influential journalist in US pro-Israeli circles who also has access to Israel’s corridors of power.
In his extremely shocking article, titled “The point of no return,” Jeffrey Goldberg wrote that he was told by Israeli intelligence leaders that Arabs and Iranians never speak. The Arabs, he wrote, secretly want Israel or the US to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities out of fear that the acquisition of nuclear weapons would embolden their Persian rivals: “Several Arab leaders have suggested that America’s standing in the Middle East depends on its willingness to confront Iran. They argue self-interestedly that an aerial attack on a handful of Iranian facilities would not be as complicated or as messy as, say, invading Iraq. ‘This is not a discussion about the invasion of Iran,’ one Arab foreign minister told me. “We are hoping for the pinpoint striking of several dangerous facilities. America could do this very easily.’”
What we have to remember here is that when it came to supporting a prospective invasion of Iraq back in 2002, Goldberg provided effective lobbying in liberal American circles, especially through his reports of so called “evidence” linking Saddam Hussein and al-Qaeda.
The question here is how did the Israeli intelligence community know that Arab leaders secretly support a military strike on Iran? Did the Israelis know about the American secret documents revealed by WikiLeaks? Furthermore, did they reveal that information to Goldberg on purpose?
Goldberg also wrote that Israeli generals said to him that lobbying Barack Obama to attack Iran would be a better idea!
“In my conversations with former Israeli air-force generals and strategists, the prevalent tone was cautious. Many people I interviewed were ready, on condition of anonymity, to say why an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites would be difficult for Israel. And some Israeli generals, like their American colleagues, questioned the very idea of an attack. “Our time would be better spent lobbying Barack Obama to do this, rather than trying this ourselves,” one general told me. ‘We are very good at this kind of operation, but it is a big stretch for us. The Americans can do this with a minimum of difficulty, by comparison. This is too big for us.’”
But if the Americans refuse to attack Iran and Israeli defense forces are ordered to start a military strike on Iran, how would this strike be designated?
“The first is that Israel would get only one try. Israeli planes would fly low over Saudi Arabia, bomb their targets in Iran and return to Israel by flying again over Saudi territory, possibly even landing in the Saudi desert for refueling — perhaps, if speculation rife in intelligence circles is to be believed, with secret Saudi cooperation. These planes would have to return home quickly, in part because Israeli intelligence believes that Iran would immediately order Hezbollah to fire rockets at Israeli cities, and Israeli air-force resources would be needed to hunt Hezbollah rocket teams.”
I just noticed that WikiLeaks had a document that used the same language in the heading as Goldberg’s article “The point of no return.”
It was in cablegate document 05TELAVIV1593, a cable from 2005 from the US Embassy in Tel Aviv:
“Israel sees Iran as the primary threat to its security and sees the enrichment cycle as the ‘point of no return’ for Tehran’s nuclear weapons program.”
Do you think that it was just a coincidence?
Well, actually it’s a very commonly used cliché. I wouldn’t read too much into that. But what we are seeing is that the cables, read carefully, do show that the Israelis are constantly hyping “points of no return” and deadlines.
Based on my conversations with Israeli decision-makers, this period of forbearance, in which Netanyahu is waiting to see if the West’s nonmilitary methods can stop Iran, will come to an end this month. Robert Gates, the US secretary of defense, said in June at a meeting of NATO defense ministers that most intelligence estimates predict that Iran is one to three years away from building a nuclear weapon. “In Israel, we heard this as nine months from June — in other words, March 2011,” one Israeli policymaker told me. “If we assume that nothing changes in these estimates, this means that we will have to begin thinking about our next step at the turn of the year.”
What’s funny about the cable I mentioned above is that this was the old “red line,” when Iran had succeeded in enriching uranium. It would be too late. And they achieved that in early 2006. As we see in Goldberg’s article, there was a new “red line” now, and it is December.
But what if President Obama can’t be convinced for a military strike on Iran?
The last paragraph of the Goldberg’s piece is extremely thought provoking for President Obama, I guess:
‘“Shortly after John F. Kennedy was elected president, Ben-Gurion met him at the Waldorf-Astoria’ in New York, [Shimon] Peres told me. After the meeting, Kennedy accompanied Ben-Gurion to the elevator and said, ‘Mr. Prime Minister, I want to tell you, I was elected because of your people, so what can I do for you in return?’ Ben-Gurion was insulted by the question. He said, ‘What you can do is be a great president of the United States. You must understand that to have a great president of the United States is a great event.’
“Peres went on to explain what he saw as Israel’s true interest. ‘We don’t want to win over the president,’ he said. ‘We want the president to win.’”
*Aydoğan Vatandaş is a journalist based in New York and the author of several books, including “Armageddon.”
Today’s Zaman
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