Month: September 2009

  • Armenia Debates Landmark Deal With Turkey

    Armenia Debates Landmark Deal With Turkey

    Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 6 Issue: 174September 23, 2009 By: Emil Danielyan

    An ARF rally, September 2009

    Yerevan’s fence-mending agreements with Ankara, which are expected to be signed by October 14, have generated lively and bitter debates among Armenia’s leading political groups. Although many of them have voiced misgivings about key parts of the deal, President Serzh Sargsyan should have no trouble in securing its mandatory ratification by the Armenian parliament. Nor is Sargsyan likely to face serious short-term threats to his rule emanating from Turkish-Armenian rapprochement.

    The most vocal critics of the process, notably the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF, also known as the Dashnak Party), lack either the strength or desire to fight for regime change in the country. Their concerns about the two Turkish-Armenian draft protocols publicized on August 31 revolve around three issues. The most important is the planned creation of a Turkish-Armenian panel of historians that will examine the mass killings and deportations of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire. Critics allege that Ankara might exploit the existence of such a body in order to dissuade other countries from recognizing the massacres as genocide.

    ARF leaders and other government opponents, such as the former Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian, also strongly object to another provision that commits Armenia to explicitly recognizing its existing border with Turkey. They say the clause is unacceptable because it precludes future Armenian territorial claims to formerly Armenian-populated areas in what is now eastern Turkey. They have also speculated that Sargsyan may have pledged to make more concessions to Azerbaijan in return for Ankara’s agreement to make no reference to the Karabakh conflict in either protocol.

    Sargsyan sought to address these concerns as he met with the leaders of 52 Armenian parties mostly loyal to his administration on September 17. “I also recognize the risks, and have concerns,” he said, opening the five-hour meeting behind closed doors. However, Sargsyan insisted that his conciliatory tone in developing relations with Turkey is worth this risk, since it shows that “a nation which endured the cataclysm of genocide” is genuinely committed to making peace with its longtime foe.” He stressed that diplomatic relations between the two neighboring states and an open border would only be the beginning of a long reconciliation process (Statement by the Armenian presidential press service, September 17).

    Many participants in the discussion were reportedly unconvinced by these arguments. “At one point, there was disappointment on Sargsyan’s face,” one unnamed party leader told the Yerevan newspaper Iravunk de Facto. “Sargsyan looked like a different person after the meeting,” claimed Aram Karapetian of the New Times Party, one of the opposition parties that did not boycott the meeting (RFE/RL Armenia Report, September 17).

    According to Armen Rustamian, an ARF leader who represented the nationalist party at the meeting, the president made clear that the controversial protocols cannot be amended in any way prior to signing the inter-governmental agreement. The ARF drafted and circulated several amendments to the documents (stemming from its objections) on September 15, as dozens of its activists staged a protest outside the main government and foreign ministry buildings in Yerevan against the government’s Turkish policy (Yerkir-Media TV, September 15).

    Hrant Markarian, another Dashnak leader, told Radio Free Europe the following day that Sargsyan might fall from power if he signs the deal in its existing form. The warning seemed hollow, since unlike the other opposition forces, the ARF is not demanding the Armenian president’s resignation, despite its harsh criticism of his Turkish policy. Moreover, the influential party known for its hard line on Turkey holds only 16 seats in Armenia’s 131-member National Assembly and is not in any position to block the agreement. It can only rely on the backing of the opposition Heritage party, which controls seven seats. The parliament’s pro-presidential majority has already voiced its unconditional support for the Turkish-Armenian agreements.

    The Armenian National Congress (HAK), the country’s leading opposition force not represented in the assembly, has adopted a surprisingly subtle position on the matter. Jamestown witnessed the HAK’s leader, Levon Ter-Petrosian addressing thousands of supporters in Yerevan on September 18. He once again accused Sargsyan of being “fooled” by the Turkish government last spring, but he stopped short of denouncing the draft protocols. The former Armenian president stood by the HAK’s September 1 statement, which described the protocols as a step forward, while rejecting the planned Turkish-Armenian genocide study. “Who needs this belated hysteria now that it is almost impossible to influence the process?” he said, scoffing at the ARF uproar.

    Ter-Petrosian himself championed better relations with Turkey, for which he was vilified by the ARF and other nationalist groups during his 1991-1998 presidency. His more cautious stance on the latest developments in the Turkish-Armenian dialogue underscores the changed fortunes of Sargsyan. The latter has remained defensive over a Turkish-Armenian statement issued on the eve of the April 24 remembrance of the tragic events of 1915. The statement, which announced a “roadmap” to normalizing bilateral ties, made it easier for U.S. President Barack Obama to ignore his pre-election pledges to describe the massacres as genocide. Many in Armenia and its worldwide diaspora accused Sargsyan of willingly sacrificing U.S. recognition of the Armenian genocide and gaining nothing in return.

    The August 31 publication of the Turkish-Armenian agreements, which set concrete time frames for the re-opening of the Turkish-Armenian border without preconditions, can now be held up by Sargsyan as a diplomatic success, even if Ankara stalls or blocks its ratification by the Turkish parliament. In the latter case, Yerevan would be able to portray itself as the more constructive party in the Western-backed dialogue and avoid making any unpopular concessions resented by the Armenian opposition. Both the United States and the European Union have stressed the importance of a speedy implementation of these agreements.

    Yerevan was unusually quick to criticize Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan for reportedly reiterating that Turkey will not lift the 16-year economic sanctions on Armenia until agreeing to a Karabakh settlement acceptable to Azerbaijan. In a late-night September 18 statement, Armenian Foreign Minister Eduard Nalbandian warned that Erdogan risks wrecking both the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement and the Karabakh peace process.

    https://jamestown.org/program/armenia-debates-landmark-deal-with-turkey/

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  • Turkey Proceeds with its Economic Recovery Plans

    Turkey Proceeds with its Economic Recovery Plans

    Turkey Proceeds with its Economic Recovery Plans

    Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 6 Issue: 174September 23, 2009

    By: Saban Kardas

    On September 16, Turkey’s Economy Minister Ali Babacan revealed the government’s medium term economic plan for 2010-2012, prepared by the state planning agency. Babacan acknowledged that the contraction in growth by the end of the year may reach 6 percent, rather than the previous estimate of 3.6 percent. According to his forecasts, the economy will experience growth rates of 3.5 percent in 2010, 4 percent in 2011 and 5 percent in 2012. The government also expects the budget deficit to reach 62.8 billion TL ($42.9 billion), then starting to fall to 50 billion TL ($33.8 billion) in 2010 and 45.1 billion TL ($30.5 billion) in 2011, and 39.1 billion TL ($26.4 billion) in 2012. Similarly, the current account deficit is also forecast to reach $18 billion. Babacan acknowledged that despite a modest recovery, unemployment is set to remain at around its current rate of 14 percent in 2010, which is well above the pre-crisis rate of 10.8 percent (www.cnnturk.com, www.ntvmsnbc.com, September 16).

    The global financial crisis was a serious blow to the Turkish economy, which led to a drastic decline in production and employment in sectors heavily dependent on exports. Although the government initiated several economic stimulus packages, their effectiveness has proven limited. They slowed the contraction of the economy, but are far from stimulating a sustainable economic recovery. The soaring budget deficit due to the economic crisis has been a growing concern among economists (EDM, August 11).

    Therefore, economists expected the government to focus on taking precautions to address the budget deficit in 2010-2012. In contrast to initial speculation that the government might have set unrealistic targets in terms of growth and fiscal balances, experts evaluating the middle term economic plan argued that it is based on a realistic prognosis of the economic conditions and a pragmatic outlook to address the problems. Rather than expecting an ambitious short term recovery, the government prefers a gradual approach aimed at improving economic conditions (Anadolu Ajansi, Today’s Zaman, September 17).

    Following the announcement of the plan, international credit rating agencies also responded positively. Standard & Poor raised Turkey’s credit rating outlook from negative to stable, while Moody’s upgraded the outlook on Turkey’s Ba3 bond rating from stable to positive (www.ntvmsnbc.com, September 18).

    On the implementation side, one factor that makes economists believe that the plan is realistic is the decision to introduce a “fiscal rule” into public administration starting from 2011. Once it is in place, it is expected to contribute to long term fiscal stability, by setting limitations on public spending. This rule was required by the IMF as part of the loan negotiations with Ankara (EDM, January 29).

    However, the role of the IMF in the implementation of the plan has proven controversial. Ankara was engaged in protracted negotiations for over a year with the IMF in order to secure a loan. Despite the recent announcement of progress in these talks, it remains unclear whether Turkey will eventually sign a stand-by deal. The critics of the AKP’s economic policies argue that an agreement with the IMF is necessary to inject credibility into its economic policies and boost confidence in the market, contributing to a more sustainable recovery.

    However, some analysts believe that the medium term plan indicates that the government might implement the precautions without the IMF, while others speculate that the IMF could remain an option. Babacan also added to the sense of confusion. On the one hand, he said that Turkey will discuss the new medium term plan with the IMF. If both sides achieve consensus, Ankara will prefer to sign a stand-by deal. On the other hand, he maintained that although an IMF loan would help the Turkish economy, the IMF financing was not necessary for the implementation of the plan. He added that the plan was prepared on the assumption that in case an agreement was reached with the IMF, the extra resources would be channeled into the domestic market directly, in order that the banking sector could distribute money for private consumption and investment (www.cnnturk.com, September 16).

    The IMF welcomed the plan and found it realistic, reflecting the impact of the global financial crisis on Turkey. In addition to the fiscal rule, the announcement supported Ankara’s plan to cut the ratio of public debt to GDP. It called on Turkey to adopt supporting policies and structural reforms, including measures to address areas that create spending pressures, so that Ankara might achieve its goal of controlling public debt (www.cnnturk.com, September 17).

    Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that Turkey had survived the crisis without IMF loans. It could continue its path without IMF assistance and would not accept IMF requirements concerning taxes and spending. Therefore, the future of an IMF deal remains uncertain (Hurriyet Daily News, September 18).

    Another major aspect of the plan is that it does not foresee any major hikes in corporate, income and value-added taxes, which equally motivates the government to restrict IMF involvement. Although there were widespread expectations that the government might opt for tax increases to reduce the budget deficit burden, it refrained from pursuing this policy. This decision partly reflects the government’s desire to limit the effect of the economic recovery plan on consumers and the markets, by avoiding policies that might curb economic activity. The government believes that the Turkish economy could recover quickly based on its own dynamics, as long as it is kept vibrant, once the global economic environment starts to improve.

    One factor that boosts the government’s self-confidence is the condition of the Turkish banking sector. Babacan, therefore, argued that unlike other Western economies where the collapse of the financial institutions triggered the economic crisis, the Turkish banking system remained intact and was in good condition. Consequently, he expects a rather smooth economic recovery, centered on the private sector (www.cnnturk.com, September 16).

    Despite the government’s positive outlook on the Turkish economy’s vibrancy, the implementation of the plan and a sustainable economic recovery will also depend upon developments in the global economy. Moreover, the government’s ability to withstand the spending pressures to be generated by the next general election slated for 2011 will be a major test of its determination to reduce public debt, a core element of Turkey’s medium-term economic plan.

    https://jamestown.org/program/turkey-proceeds-with-its-economic-recovery-plans/

  • Envion Oil Generator turns plastic waste into oil

    Envion Oil Generator turns plastic waste into oil

    By Paul Ridden

    17:12 September 21, 2009 PDT

    The Envion Oil Generator, a new technology that converts plastic waste into oil, at the Montgomery County Waste Transfer Station

    Image Gallery (3 images)

    The ground-breaking Envion Oil Generator (EOG) gave its first public performance at the Montgomery County Solid Waste Transfer Station in Derwood, Maryland recently. The EOG can be fed almost any petroleum-based waste plastic and will convert it into synthetic light to medium oil for less than USD$10 per barrel. As with crude oil, the synthetic oil can then be processed into commercial fuels or even back into plastic.

    Both a saint and a sinner, plastic has touched almost every part of modern life. It’s everywhere – we live in homes built using it, we eat and drink from it or with it, we drive encased in it, we walk wearing it, we are entertained by it, this article was typed using keys made from it. It has made our lives easier and we have become utterly dependent on it. But it’s this very usefulness – 20 times more plastic is produced today than 50 years ago, some 260 million tons globally – that is behind plastic’s biggest problem. What do you do with it when it’s reached the end of its useful life?

    Until relatively recently, our disposable Western mindset would tell us to simply throw the snapped plastic fork or the empty plastic bottle out with the rubbish. Although most of us have now been whipped up into a recycling frenzy, an awful lot of plastic still ends up as waste. In the US it is estimated that less than 4 percent of plastic waste is recycled (2 millions tons, leaving about 46 million tons to be disposed of in other ways).

    Whether it’s incinerated (which produces hazardous emissions and toxic ash) or buried in landfill (where various toxic chemicals are released during the slow degradation of plastics) or dumped at sea (that accounts for millions of tons of hazardous floating garbage, such as the Great Pacific Garbage Patch) – humans, animals and the environment suffer as a result.

    Energy capture

    Given that an awful lot of the plastic we use every day is derived from fossil fuels such as gas and oil and as such contains huge amounts of stored energy which simply goes to waste when it’s thrown away, wouldn’t it be great if we could capture all of this energy and re-use it?

    That’s essentially what Envion (a portmanteau of environment and vision) says its EOG does. A reactor converts waste plastic feedstock into oil through low temperature thermal cracking in a vacuum, extracting the hydrocarbons embedded in petroleum-based plastic waste without the use of a catalyst. Roughly around 62 percent of what goes into the unit is successfully converted into oil.

    Interestingly, the EOG makes use of some of the by-products of the conversion process to power the unit. Vent gas is recycled to provide electricity and excess oil residue is transformed into emulsified heavy oil.

    When Gizmag asked about other by-products, Envion’s Todd Makurath told us: “There are three byproducts of the EOG operation: oxygen, carbon dioxide and ash. First it should noted that the EOG is actually carbon negative as an oil producer. That being said, we are an environmentally-focused company and aren’t satisfied with just beating the average. The CO2 released by the EOG is minimal and well-within all EPA guidelines,” said Makurath.

    “The ash that is produced is the result of the use of our sludge dryer. We try to contain and reuse whatever we can in the system and as sludge is produced within the EOG it is fed into the sludge dryer where any excess or residual oil is extracted and fed back into the system to increase efficiency, and what is leftover is microwaved to produce a non-hazardous ash. There are no gaseous emissions from the sludge dryer. When all is said and done, the ash generally equates to less than 5 percent by weight of what was processed by the machine.”

    Each Envion unit is assembled on a single mobile base platform with dimensions 47ft x 13ft (14.3m x 4m) and is capable of processing up to 10,000 tons of plastic waste annually, producing three to five barrels of refined (99 percent sediment-free) petroleum product per ton of plastic waste (that’s over one million gallons of oil per year per unit). Scaling up the unit merely involves adding more reactors, not whole systems.

    Unlike current recycling methods, where mixing different kinds of plastic is a big no-no, the EOG has an ‘all plastic is welcome’ policy, no segregation here! Polyethylene terephthalate (PET); high and low density polyethylenes (HDPE and LDPE); polyvinyl chloride (PVC); polypropylene (PP) and polystyrene (PS) as well as several other plastic materials, such as GPPS, EPS, HIPS, and PA, can all be converted to oil by the unit.

    The company estimates that its solution would have been able to accept and process between 60-80 percent of the total plastic waste thrown away in the U.S. in 2007 (based on EPA statistics).

    At the recent launch in Maryland, company founder Michael S Han commented: “The Envion Oil Generator provides a revolutionary solution to the problem of plastic waste by transforming it from an environmental hazard into a sustainable, renewable energy source.”

    After 15 years in development, the EOG is now ready for deployment throughout the U.S. and beyond but Envion isn’t planning to stop there. Its research and development boffins are currently looking into applying the conversion technology to other types of petroleum-based waste products, such as vehicle tires.

    The good, the bad and…

    The good – re-using the millions of tons of plastic waste instead of burying, dumping or burning it is undoubtedly a good thing. With processing costs of less than USD$30 per ton compared to other methods in excess of USD$200 per ton, it’s a cheaper way of managing plastic waste, too.

    The bad – the end product is oil which means that all the environmental consequences associated with it are likely to continue for some time to come.

    The last great oil shock in the late 1970s fueled some wonderful ideas for alternatives to polluting power but as the distress died away, so did the ideas. The realization that oil reserves are finite, that some day soon oil production will come to an end, has finally started to hit home. A great innovation in itself, it would be a great shame if the widespread application of the Envion technology put a premature end to the increasingly numerous clean-power innovations that are regularly showcased on Gizmag’s pages.

    The Envion Oil Generator, a new technology that converts plastic waste into oil, at the Mo...

  • Turkey Boosts its Ties with Syria and the Middle East

    Turkey Boosts its Ties with Syria and the Middle East

    Turkey Boosts its Ties with Syria and the Middle East

    Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 6 Issue: 171September 18, 2009 05

    By: Saban Kardas

    The Syrian President Bashar al-Assad visited Turkey on September 16-17 as the special guest of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, during which the two countries signed landmark agreements to deepen their bilateral relations. Assad attended a Ramadan fast-breaking dinner on September 16, held in his honor by the Justice and Development Party (AKP). He expressed Syrian support for Turkey’s recent Kurdish opening. Both leaders emphasized their desire to end the terrorist problem in Turkey through democratic initiatives and transform the Middle East into an area of peace and stability. Assad also praised Turkey’s role as peacemaker in the Syrian-Israeli indirect peace talks, which he described as “reliable.” He said that they still needed Turkey’s impartial mediatory role in the peace process (Anadolu Ajansi, September 16).

    The first visible achievement of Assad’s trip was the lifting of visa requirements between the countries. In a related development, they also agreed to remove taxes on trailer trucks operating between both countries. Given the flourishing of bilateral trade, these developments were welcomed by many Turks, especially those living in provinces on the border, where trade with Syria constitutes a major source of economic activity. Representatives of the business community expect the trade volume to double following the agreement on these new regulations (Yeni Safak, September 18).

    In a related decision a High-level Strategic Cooperation Council (HLSCC) was established between the two countries. Turkey has followed a similar pattern in its efforts to deepen its multi-dimensional political, economic and cultural ties with Iraq. The format of the Turkish-Syrian council will resemble the model used between Turkey and Iraq (EDM, August 12).

    During his joint press briefing with his Turkish counterpart Ahmet Davutoglu, the Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Mualem said that “this is the biggest demonstration of cooperation, solidarity and mutual trust.” Davutoglu concurred by saying that this decision moved the brotherhood between the two nations to a political level (Anadolu Ajansi, September 17).

    Meanwhile, the first ministerial meeting of the Turkey-Iraq HLSCC also took place in Istanbul on September 17. Speaking at this meeting, Davutoglu said that the two governments are willing to shape their countries’ future in line with the model partnership framework being developed. He added that their goal is to achieve the most comprehensive economic integration between the two countries. His Iraqi counterpart reciprocated by saying that “we desire cooperation that could help shape the future of the region” (Anadolu Ajansi, September 17).

    This intensive diplomatic traffic also provides another opportunity for Turkey to act in a mediation role. On the sidelines of the Turkey-Iraq HSCC, Davutoglu brought together Mualem and his Iraqi counterpart Hoshyar Zebari, joined by the Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa. The meeting was held to facilitate the ongoing dialogue between Syria and Iraq aimed at reducing tensions between the two countries following Baghdad’s claim that Damascus was behind the terrorist attacks in the Iraqi capital in August. They mutually withdrew their ambassadors and Turkish diplomats have been working intensively to heal the strained relations, which it views in terms of developing closer regional integration. Earlier, Davutoglu toured the two capitals and attended an Arab League meeting in Cairo to address this problem. Although no specific steps to solve Syrian-Iraqi tensions were announced, Davutoglu emphasized that Turkey would promote confidence building measures between the two brotherly nations, and he will also explore the involvement of the United Nations in the crisis (Cihan, September 17).

    The removal of barriers between Turkey and Syria has a strong symbolic meaning, and reflects a deliberate attempt on the part of the two governments to overcome the political divisions that kept them apart for decades. When the Turkish-Syrian border was formed following the First World War, many families were separated on both sides of the border. During the Cold War even mutual family visits on the occasion of religious feasts were difficult to conduct. In the post-Cold War era, such border crossings were facilitated through the issuing of short term visas. Nonetheless, for decades, the Turkish-Syrian border and those visa difficulties symbolized the political and ideological isolation of Turkey from its Middle Eastern, cultural hinterland. This decision, therefore, complements earlier initiatives undertaken by the AKP government to normalize Turkish-Syrian relations, such as the clearing of the mines on the Turkish side of the border (EDM, May 21), or holding joint military exercises in border areas (EDM, May 1). Through such steps, Turkey has moved toward reconnecting with its Middle Eastern neighbors. Moreover, it sees this reorientation as more than a cultural project: rather, it is part of Turkey’s efforts to develop platforms to resolve security problems in the region through the involvement of local actors.

    Indeed, Assad also underscored a similar vision when he addressed the fast-breaking dinner. After emphasizing that for centuries people sharing the same culture were divided, he maintained that this problem was caused by the local leaders’ failure to appreciate the pitfalls of acting in line with the manipulations of great powers. However, he avoided apportioning the blame exclusively on great powers, and engaged in self-criticism by noting that many of the problems in the region were of their own making. He called for the resolution of “regional problems by the regional countries themselves,” a sentiment that resonates well with Turkey’s foreign policy vision (www.cnnturk.com, September 17).

    Nonetheless, such initiatives raise the question of whether Turkey is reorienting its foreign policy priorities. Although the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) Deputy Head Onur Oymen, a former diplomat, supported the establishment of the HLSCC and the normalization of relations with the country’s neighbors, he still raised key questions: “Given its values, Turkey belongs to Europe. We do not even have mutual visa lifting agreements with our E.U. neighbors… But we sign such agreements with Syria and other Muslim countries with which [we do not share the same world view]. Is this indicating a break with Turkey’s traditional foreign policy orientation?” (ANKA, September 17).

    https://jamestown.org/program/turkey-boosts-its-ties-with-syria-and-the-middle-east/

  • Oskanian Condemns Turkey-Armenia Protocols

    Oskanian Condemns Turkey-Armenia Protocols


    By Asbarez Staff on Sep 22nd, 2009

    YEREVAN (RFE/RL)–Former Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian condemned the Turkey-Armenia protocols  on Tuesday, subjecting Armenia’s fence-mending agreements with Turkey to harsh criticism and saying that Yerevan is giving the Turks “everything they have wanted for 17 years” and gaining very little in return.

    In an emotional speech, Oskanian echoed the arguments of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation and other vocal opponents of the deal. He rejected government assurances that it calls for an unconditional normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations.

    “The document on diplomatic relations with Turkey that we are to sign should lay the groundwork for long-term good-neighborly relations,” he said. “It should enable the two parties to sit down and frankly talk to each other about both the past and the future. But the existing document does not allow for that. In fact, it precludes such discussions.”

    Like other critics, Oskanian singled out two controversial provisions of the Turkish-Armenian protocols on the establishment of diplomatic relations and reopening of the border between the two countries. One of them envisages the creation of a joint panel of experts that would transform the political debate of the Armenia genocide into a historic one by questioning its veracity.

    The idea of such a study was first floated by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in a 2005 letter to then President Robert Kocharian. The latter effectively turned down the offer, saying that this and other issues of mutual concern should instead be tackled by a Turkish-Armenian inter-governmental commission.

    The creation of such a commission is envisaged by one of the protocols that are expected to be signed by the two governments next month. One of its seven “sub-commissions” is to conduct an “impartial scientific examination of historical documents and archives.”

    Foreign Minister Eduard Nalbandian and other allies of President Serzh Sarkisian have said that the sub-commission would not seek to determine whether the Armenian massacres constituted a genocide. But Ankara has made no secret of its plans to use the very existence of such a body to keep more countries from recognizing the genocide.

    Oskanian also vehemently objected to another protocol provision that obliges Armenia to recognize its existing border with Turkey. “With one sentence, we completely cede our historical rights. We even close the possibility, no matter how formal, of restoring historical justice,” he said in remarks reflecting the ARF’s position on the issue.

    According to US President Woodrow Wilson’s arbitration award in the Sevres Treaty of 1920, Armenia has a legal right to the formerly Armenian-populated territories in what is now eastern Turkey. The Kocharian administration, in which Oskanian served for ten years, avoided explicitly recognizing a 1921 treaty that set the current Turkish-Armenian frontier.

    Speaking during an event organized by his Civilitas Foundation think-tank, Oskanian linked the perceived alarming developments in Yerevan’s dealings with Ankara to what he described as a lack of democracy in Armenia. “Unfortunately, our country is very far from being a democratic country,” he said. “And yet that’s what our future and security depend on. We have not made serious investments in strengthening our democratic institutions.”


    Below is an abridged version of Oskanian’s speech:


    We are facing a critical historic and political decision as a country and as a people and Civilitas believes in the importance of public debate. But in the case of these protocols, the debate is going off in the wrong direction. Not only are we presented with a fait accompli, but they’re also telling us nothing is changeable, and those documents have no preconditions.

    Reading these protocols one unwillingly comes to the following conclusion: That these documents were prepared, somewhere, with Turkey’s participation, and imposed on the Armenian side, or the Armenian side really did negotiate this document having fully convinced itself that Armenia’s future development and survival is indeed completely linked to the opening of this border.

    Those are the only two possible explanations. Otherwise, it’s not possible to understand the logic of these documents that unequivocally give Turkey what it has wanted for 18 years. Let’s not fool ourselves, let’s not mislead our people, let’s not trample on our own dignity, and let’s call things by their name.

    For a moment, let’s assume that the border will indeed open. We will, as a nation, have to recognize that the border is being opened in exchange for important concessions of history and national honor, and of our sense of who we are and how we view our role and place in this region. We will have conceded our equal place in our future relations with Turkey.

    At the base of this document is a defeatist attitude. It reminds me of the mood in 1997, when we were being told Armenia has no hope of further development, that it can’t be a stable, fully independent state if the Nagorno Karabakh conflict is not quickly resolved. The next 10 years came to disprove this. Despite the many problems and faults of that period, with the border still closed, there was in fact serious economic improvement. Our economy saw double-digit growth thanks to old and new economic reforms and their continuation. The country became more stable, with a new sense of unity, however fragile and incomplete, and with broader Diaspora inclusion.

    Today, Armenia’s situation is again very difficult. We have an inexplicable 18.4% decline in growth, when the average world decline is two to three percent. Diaspora and Armenia have never been so distant from each other. Our society has never been so polarized. Our people have never felt so hopeless about our country’s future. Under these conditions, old sentiments have emerged again, telling us that Armenia can never become a fully independent state and cannot develop economically because of the closed border and the unresolved Nagorno Karabakh conflict.

    Today, since we’ve already gone down this road, I can say with even greater confidence, that that’s not the case.

    We must have trust in our own resources, in our people, in our country, in our future. If we successfully completed first generation economic reforms, we must move on to the second, third, fourth, fifth generations. These hold huge potential for our prosperity. We have an ever greater potential source: our unity and common sense of purpose.

    Despite all this, there is also a new area where no one — not past administrations and not this one either – has seriously and honestly ventured. Very little has been done in the thorny but vital area of political reform. Unfortunately, our state is not a democratic state yet. But our whole future and security depend on that one word. We have not invested in fortifying and consolidating our democratic institutions, and now instead of going forward, we are going backwards. Our people, any people, are creative when they are free; but we have not created the conditions, the equal playing field, an assured rule of law society that protects the freedoms that enable prosperity. The closed border has not kept them out. Our succeeding governments have not nourished the seeds that are here on our land.

    Our problems are here, at home. The solutions, too, must be sought here. No one says no to open borders or to an agreement on Nagorno Karabakh. But we must do so in the right way, in a dignified way, not with an imposed external solution, but a solution achieved from positions of strength among equal partners.

    Signing these documents will not solve our problems. On the contrary, they will bring on entirely new setbacks and problems that can only be tackled by a unified, free, hopeful society.

    That is not to say protocols with Turkey should not be signed. Of course they should. Even these two protocols, with all their major and minor unacceptable, controversial, questionable provisions would be acceptable, if at the very least, one sentence were removed, and a few words changed.

    But as currently formulated, they cannot be signed.

    First, if we were to assume that Turkey, after signing the protocols, will ratify them as well, we must ask ourselves, will the opening of the Turkish border be worth the price we will pay? This is the price they have been asking since 1991, when after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Turkey recognized and established diplomatic relations with all former soviet republics except Armenia. Since the beginning, they’ve had two demands – that Armenia renounce any territorial claims, and that Armenians renounce the international genocide recognition campaign. A third demand was added in 1993 – that Armenians withdraw from the territories surrounding Nagorno Karabakh.

    Since that day, those three conditions have been consistently repeated. Today, the first two are formalized in the protocol. It’s there, black on white, and our government has apparently agreed to meet those demands. The protocol is worded such that not only do we agree to respect the territorial integrity of Turkey, but in the next sentence, we consent to renounce our historic rights as well as even the theoretical possibility of regaining historic justice.

    Today there are more than 190 countries in the world, and there are nearly that many territorial disputes among them. That means that pairs of countries with normal relations with each other continue to disagree over their borders. A fourth of those disputes are in Europe. They have embassies, they trade, they have friendly relations, but their diplomats continue to talk and argue, respectfully, over their differing interpretations of history and territory. Those countries have signed protocols and have diplomatic relations.

    In our region, even with our friendly, brotherly Georgia, Armenia and Georgia have not ‘recognized current existing borders.’ Demarcation is just now ongoing between us. Neither have Georgia and Azerbaijan. There, demarcation hasn’t even begun. But there are diplomatic relations. Those other 190 countries have agreed to respect each other’s territorial integrity, not their current existing borders. That is the international practice. There is a clear distinction in international relations between respecting territorial integrity and recognizing current borders. Look, we often say that we recognize Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity. But we continue the sentence and point out that Nagorno Karabakh has nothing to do with Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity since it’s never been a part of independent Azerbaijan.

    Today, we can recognize Turkey’s territorial integrity. But how we continue that sentence is a right that no one can take from us or our future generations.

    A protocol to establish diplomatic relations between two states sets the start for a long-term relationship during which two countries will tackle and resolve many new and ongoing bilateral problems. When the document that formalizes this relationship includes language that transforms the relationship to an unequal one, extracting one-sided concessions, one wonders about the future of such relations.

    We want relations with Turkey, but we want them with a Turkey that wants equal and reciprocal relations with Armenia. We want relations with a Turkey that understands that the Europe to which we both aspire is not a Europe without disputes, but a Europe where neighbors agree to disagree while continuing to live neighborly and in dignity. We deserve no less.

    The same concerns exist with the protocol provision about a historical subcommission and the ‘impartial scientific examination of the historical records’. Our neighbor, the successor to a state which committed Genocide, has not itself condemned this internationally recognized crime, yet expects to use this protocol to formalize its own unwillingness to confront history. Worse. Armenia’s government has acquiesced and agreed to be dragged into another endless process of denying and rewriting. Already, before the documents are even signed, there is talk of Turkey’s asking countries to re-visit their own statements of genocide recognition and condemnation. Turkey will cite the protocol and proceed with its efforts to rewrite history. Armenia and Armenians will expend energy and time to confirm historic facts.

    These are the pitfalls that await us if Turkey intends to ratify the protocols. But what if this is all intended to show the world that they are ready to proceed with open borders, while at the same time their parliament withholds ratification until Azerbaijan is satisfied with the Nagorno Karabakh resolution?

    This is the fundamental danger. These are not empty fears, this is not the product of an active imagination. Prime Minister Erdogan and Foreign Minister Davutoglu remind us of this condition daily. Their demands on Nagorno Karabakh are Azerbaijan’s demands. Already, even before the protocols are signed, they continue to speak of those conditions. During the last year, there has not been an opportunity when Erdogan has spoken of Armenia-Turkey relations, without mentioning a return of the territories surrounding Nagorno Karabakh, and sometimes even return of Nagorno Karabakh itself. There hasn’t been one opportunity when Erdogan in his bilateral meetings, has not spoken about Nagorno Karabakh as an important agenda item. Apparently, Turkey is not concerned that as a consequence of such announcements, Armenia will withdraw from this process or from signing the document. Thus, Turkey is going against the letter and spirit of the document, by taking sides with one neighbor, at the expense of another.

    In other words, if the purpose of this document and this process is to look to the future, that is not happening.

    The only part about this that is surprising is that our leadership either does not hear them, does not want to hear them, or wants to believe they really mean something other than what they say.

    For 15 years, Turkey has maintained the blockade, hoping for our economic and political capitulation. It didn’t happen and will not happen. Today, it is they who desperately need to come out of that political corner in which they placed themselves, it is they who need that border open, and they seem to have found a way to do it, at our expense.

    Today, they need to open the border. It is they who are under great European pressure within their accession time frames. Today, they need to open the border because they are the ones who have economic issues at their eastern border that they need resolved. Today, they need to open the border because they are the ones in fear of the genocide recognition process that has been moving quickly and has culminated in great US pressure. Finally, they need the border open in order to reinforce their leadership role in this region.

    Instead, our government has been making concessions, in their haste to move this process forward. From the beginning, if they were not farsighted enough to avoid being put in this position, now that this situation has been created, they must find a way to change course.

    They have no choice. We are at a crossroads in our history. We have on the table the first bilateral document that the independent sovereign Republic of Armenia intends to sign with the Republic of Turkey. These documents not for and by third parties, as with the countless historical documents of the past where Armenia is a subject and not a party, but for the first time in history, a document in which Armenia is signing on to its own perceived place in history.

    I wanted to make clear the basis of my criticism: we must and should move to normal relations with Turkey. But this document with these formulations should not be signed. Indeed, no one is authorized to sign this document with such formulations.

    When people hear my criticism, sometimes they accuse me of jealousy. I think they do this so that they don’t have to have to deal with the substance of my criticism but instead, they trivialize it so they can dismiss it.

    Nevertheless, I want to confess, I am sometimes envious. But of Turkish diplomacy. I would not dare to bring such a document to the table, I wouldn’t sign it and I don’t envy the man who will soon do so.

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