Month: October 2008

  • AMERICA:  Where Do We Go From Here?

    AMERICA: Where Do We Go From Here?

    POOR  RICHARD’S   REPORT                860-522-7171

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                                 Where Do We Go From Here?

     

                The Oct 11-12 weekend edition of the Financial Times (the Salmon Colored paper) had all negative articles on the global stock markets. Not one positive one I could find. The NYSE reported 2,500 new lows out of 3,400 traded. The G-7 held an emergency meeting in Washington DC. With the pendulum so far to one side it has to swing back. Today Monday, Oct 13, 2008 at noon there are only 2 new lows being made and the markets are soaring. It will be a long time before we see the new highs in the popular averages. We are being  taught a valuable lesson about greed.

                This is just a rally or a dead cat bounce. Imagine a farmer haying his field for the last time before winter sets in. The birds will flock to pick over the bugs that have been exposed and they will grow slowly as the temperature cools down. When the frigid weather sets in it is time for reorganization. We have just been hayed.  Just like the farmer’s field the market will come back under new leadership.

                Congress can do what ever they please, but this is a free country with entrepreneurs seeking their pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. In this free spirit country we will seek new avenues for long term growth. If one invested in Wal-Mart in 1970 today that person would have made 5,300 times on their investment Just keep your eyes open around you.

                All the learned men are coming forth with idealistic reforms for the financial reform. They won’t be able to put humpty dumpty back together again. They don’t have the right glue.

                We need a comprehensive reorganization and reform of our global markets. Sounds impossible? Well, since everyone is down globally there is a sensible way to get it going.

                Congress should expand the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) from three members to 7 or 9. The other members would be made up of leading financial experts from member nations of the G-7.  Each member would have to be approved by a special US Senate committee to make sure their heads are screwed on right. Then they will be able to take our reforms back to their individual countries. Countries that do not follow our examples will not be recognized by participating countries. They will be playing an expensive form of Monopoly.

                The reason for this is if one country has an UPTICK RULE for short sales then the other members would be encouraged to enforce it on their own markets. The mandate should be “For the Common Good” and not how much money will be made. Get rich quick schemes attract individuals with smelly clothes and bad manners.    The reason for our own breakdown starts in Washington. Our Political parties were more intent on destroying the other instead of improving our lot. There is no love or forgiveness in Washington.  

                Events in Washington determine what direction our economy goes. That in turn affects the market place. We must keep watch on our politicians. The media is all over Sarah Palin, but ignoring errors made by Senator Biden during the vice presidential debate. He is chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee too. I think he has the beginning of Alzheimer’s.

                Now I have maintained for several months the Uptick Rule as many readers know.

                In the 1990’s the freedom to know was passed on to securities research. This was interpreted that the general public should know what a select few knew. It is a noble idea, but not very practable in the long term. Many corporations have no idea what they are going to earn. If they guide the investor in the wrong direction they can face stiff fines or a day or two in jail. So they give out in the ball park figures that as the year goes by they keep refining it. Brokerage firms that had paid a pretty penny for good analysts were up against the wall. The general public did not know who to believe.

                Here is how it worked in the past and should work in the future. An analyst calls on company A and meets with the high ranking officer. They discuss each division of the company and the officers tell the analyst if he is hi or low. Then the analyst leaves and writes up a report that is sent back to the company for approval. Then more notes are sent back and forth until they both agree on the figures. Now both sides know what company A can earn. The research manager approves the report and it is finally published. Here the research firm should have three days to contact their clients. After that grace period the information can be made public for a nominal fee depending upon the number of written pages. Then management is able to correctly guide other analyst in the right direction.

                Repeal the Investment Company Act of 1940. This was for the protection of the baby industry of mutual funds. Some baby! It is a gorilla messing up markets. Take away their hidden and real fees and you will see a better performance. That industry is top heavy with unnecessary “management”.  They should trade like Exchange Traded Funds (ETF’s) with normal stock exchange commissions.

                No net trades. Every investor should know how much he is paying for the security. It is called Transparency and bond traders hate it.

                Finally the media must be reined in. An analyst once told me that when he goes “on the air” he comes up with his most speculative idea. If it hits he has a chance of being in the big time, if he is wrong everyone will forget. (Except for the analyst who wrote up “Gold is Dead!”  when it was $40 and ounce!)

                There is one ad that over the years has met all ethical and legal requirements and that is the Oppenheim Mutual Fund ads. The one with the four hands and they say an intelligible disclaimer at the end.

                Two Classic ads were Merrill Lynch’s “We are bullish on America”. They did not say the stock market. This was during the bear market of 1973-1982. The second one was “Smith Barney – they make money the old fashion way – They earn it!”  Smith Barney did not say you were going to make money. 

                If one had done the opposite of 99% of the “talking heads” that person would be way ahead.  I consider commodity ads outrageous. “Gold has never gone down” is one ad that turns my stomach inside out. 1982 into 1990’s was a downtrend.  The most speculative exchange has or implies you can not lose. Pure trash!

                Business leaders fined or jailed should apply to the spouse too. That will slow everyone down. One can not hide money in family accounts.

                Our Congress will pass punitive laws in order to insure reelection, pounding their hollow chests while bellowing “vote for me”. Meanwhile a lot of good folks will be out of jobs, and the recession could deepen.

                The shock and the horror that has happened will take years for the market to recover. In the meantime old leaders will fade away and new spring growth will emerge with beautiful colors and soon what5 has past will be ancient history except to a painful few.

                One final thought. To increase consumer confidence and to help the “little guy” instead of just the mighty institutions, we should bring back the usury laws15%-30 on credit cards is downright immoral. If the Democrats are so intent on helping the poor; why not help the ones going to the “poorhouse”?

     

     

                                        Goodbye inflationHello Deflation

          

     

                                                                                                    Tuesday, October 14, 2008

     

     

     

     

    This report has been prepared from original sources and data we believe reliable but we make no representation to its accuracy or completeness. Coburn & Meredith Inc its subsidiaries and or officers may from time to time acquire, hold, sell a position discussed in this publications, and we may act as principal for our own account or as agent for both the buyer and seller.                           


     

    This is my new Home/Office number in Eastford Ct.

    I can be reached any where from 8:30am to 8:00pm a cell phone can not be used for transmitting orders.

      The cell phone is always on my person, but like me has to be recharged every night.

  • Turkish Airlines launches tender for 105 planes, invites Boeing, Airbus

    Turkish Airlines launches tender for 105 planes, invites Boeing, Airbus

    Turkish Airlines

    Turkey’s flag carrier, Turkish Airlines (THY), launched a tender to buy 105 planes, including 30 optional, in 15 years and invited American Boeing as well as European Airbus to offer bids.

    HY, a member of Star Alliance, said the tender would include 35 long-haul with an option for 10 aircraft and 70 short and medium-haul with an option for 20, the company said in a statement.

    It also said THY is looking at Airbus A350, A330, A320 and Boeing 787, 777, 737.

    “The delivery timetable, expected to start in the second quarter of 2010, would be an important criteria alongside the price in the evaluation of the companies’ bids,” the statement said.

    Turkey’s fast-growing flag carrying had increased its passenger number at an average rate of around 20 percent in recent years.

    Hot News Turkey

  • Armenia: FM Denies Reports Of Turkey Proposal On Nagorno-Karabakh

    Armenia: FM Denies Reports Of Turkey Proposal On Nagorno-Karabakh

    Armenia’s Foreign Ministry denied on Oct. 2 denied reports circulating in the Azerbaijani media that Baku and Yerevan are engaged in three-way negotiations with Turkey over a Turkish proposal to resolve the conflict between the two over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, Azeri Press Agency reported.. A spokesman for the Armenian Foreign Ministry said talks are continuing “on the basis of Madrid proposals in the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group,” the report said.

  • Gap years: Make sure you do something useful

    Gap years: Make sure you do something useful

      

     

     

    By Miranda Green

    Published: October 13 2008 11:00 | Last updated: October 13 2008 11:00

    As Will Morgan begins his final year at Southampton University, his career plans are undergoing a thorough rethink.

    After he emerges with a masters degree in electrical engineering next year, Will had intended to start a career in finance: he is interested in becoming a trader because “I’m quite a hands-on guy”.

    However, the financial crisis has made him postpone a decision and keep his options open. He now intends to live in Marseilles for a year and do some work experience in a French engineering consultancy firm where he has a family contact.

    “Because of the economic downturn, I think I want to see what’s going on and wait until it all settles down. I’d like to take a month or two off but then do something constructive because I know employers take a dim view of people just having fun.”

    Will is probably one of the lucky ones. A degree in engineering, because it proves his problem-solving abilities, makes him a sought-after recruit either in industry, business or finance. He is likely to have more than one path open to him when he returns from France, especially because he will have acquired good working use of the French language and several months experience of the world of work.

    But among Will’s friends, and across the undergraduate population in general, similar decisions to take a post-university gap year are become more widespread.

    In a survey published last month by TMP Worldwide, the recruitment advertising company, 54 per cent of the final-year undergraduate interviewees were thinking about taking a gap year and one in 10 was planning to wait for a year to escape the financial chaos and wait for the economy to either improve or for the picture to become clearer.

    Some of Will’s contemporaries have managed to defer banking jobs for a year for similar reasons.

    Some have other motivations: “A lot of my friends are doing a similar thing because, if they didn’t take a year off between school and university, they have been doing exams solidly for 10 years. They need a break and they want to see the world.”

    But Jayne Cullen, head of graduate solutions at TMP has a warning for any soon-to-be graduates contemplating such a step. “They need to plan it carefully to make sure they’re more employable when they return and look for permanent jobs.

    “They need to make sure they not only develop the right skills, such as communication and teamwork, but also ensure they can demonstrate what they have learnt to potential employers.”

    The company conducted the research after finding that more graduates were taking time out and then failing to reappear as potential recruits to training programmes – companies were concerned about how to reconnect with this “lost” group.

    The survey also showed that those who had already taken a gap year were bad at selling the way the time off had developed their skills: 20 per cent did not think their employer would be interested in their experiences and another 13 per cent did not even mention their time away from the job market in conversations with potential employers.

    Recruiters say this is a mistake. “People tend to box off career from the rest of their life,” says Sedef Buyukataman, graduate recruitment manager for the UK, Ireland and the Nordic countries at Cisco. “But we are looking for potential. If you can’t find what you want in the current business environment, I would say take that year off but find something that will develop you.”

    She recommends, for example, a community role or volunteering, which even if not directly relevant, shows commitment, and “it will all be useful”.

    Morgan McKinley, which specialises in banking and financial services recruitment, says employers can see the advantages of both work experience and travel but only if potential recruits can prove their experiences demonstrate “resourcefulness, drive, responsibility and inquisitiveness”.

    Debt, however, is another consideration that may dissuade soon-to-be graduates from putting their job search on hold. Some students run up large amounts by opening multiple bank accounts with overdrafts, and 37 per cent of UK undergraduates use credit cards for some of their expenses.

    Will and his friends say they are not worried about debt in the form of student loans, because the interest rate is so favourable and it will not have to be paid back until they begin to earn a decent salary.

    But he is keeping his attitudes flexible: “I’ll still be looking for a City job. I’ve always wanted to live in London. And if an offer comes up that’s too good to refuse, well…”

     

  • Top US grad schools seek Turkish pupils

    Top US grad schools seek Turkish pupils

    Saturday, October 11, 2008
    Participants of the graduate school and MBA event vying for studentsâ EURO ™ attentions this Sunday in Istanbulâ EURO ™s center include 17 of the top 20 U.S. business schools â EURO ” Berkeley, Columbia, Duke, Stanford and Wharton. With more than 50,000 of Turkeyâ EURO ™s students studying abroad, the fairs reflect the growth of Turkey as a market for foreign educational institutions

    ISTANBUL â EURO ” Turkish Daily News
      This Sunday representatives from the best American and European graduate programs will meet with students attending the World MBA & Grad School Tour in Istanbul.

      Held at the Military Museum & Cultural Center in the central Istanbul neighborhood of Harbiye, the free event provides an opportunity to interact with admissions officers of the world’s leading business and graduate schools. Students will also find information about tapping into $1.1 million of scholarships, a GMAT/GRE testing and admissions strategy workshop, a careers panel with recruiters and alumni, a sample class from top professors and a free career guide for the first 100 visitors.

      The Education Ministry says some 50,000 students from Turkey study abroad every year. The recent trend reflects that students realize that quality international education is close by and that EU benefits are abundant. The numbers of international visas granted show that more than 20,000 Turkish students are enrolling each year in European universities.

      Participants in the QS World MBA Tour include 17 of the top 20 U.S. business, schools such as Berkeley, Columbia, Duke, Georgetown, Stanford and Wharton. All of the leading European business schools will attend, including Rotterdam and London business schools, Cambridge, and Oxford. Leading Turkish MBA providers will also take part. The Grad School Tour brings more than 80 U.S. and international graduate schools to Istanbul this year.

    Face time with top schools

      With high competition for business school admission, meetings such as this provide students with the opportunity to ask customized questions about career opportunities, school specializations and financial aid. And the face-to-face impression can make the difference in the end, said Peter Johnson, director of admissions at UC Berkeley’s Haas School of Business.

      ï¿ 1/2 We look for candidates who can clearly articulate their post-MBA career goals, and have a good understanding of how our MBA program will help them to achieve those goals,ï¿ 1/2 he added. Following each fair, Johnson’s team follow up personally with candidates short-listed for their potential.

      During the nine years that Wharton has attended the tour, the percentage of international students at the school has increased from 28 percent to a high of 38 percent of the class.

      Candidates can register online to attend the QS World MBA and Grad Schools Tour this Sunday by visiting: www.topmba.com and www.topgradschool.com.

      Istanbul, 12 October 2008, 2 to 6 p.m.

      Contact: Isabelle Pasmantier [email protected]   + 33 1 45 66 54 72
    Â(c) 2005 Dogan Daily News Inc. www.turkishdailynews.com.tr

  • Sen. Byrd and Rep. Wexler on Turkey and Iraq war

    Sen. Byrd and Rep. Wexler on Turkey and Iraq war

    Emil Sanamyan’s articles on Armenian-Americans, Armenia and its neighborhood.
    Saturday, October 11, 2008
    Sen. Byrd and Rep. Wexler on Turkey and Iraq war
    First published in September 13, 2008 Armenian Reporter.

    Turkey’s friends on the Hill: U.S. was wrong, Turkey right on Iraq
    In recent books, two Democrats offer whitewash of Turkey’s position
    review by Emil Sanamyan

     

    WASHINGTON – Senator Robert Byrd (D.-W.V.), a veteran politician referred to in the past as the “senator from Istanbul,” and Rep. Robert Wexler (D.-Fla.), a young member of Congress who just may be popular enough in Turkey to one day become its prime minister, published their books over the summer.

    Timed for release in a presidential election year, both books focus on criticisms of the Bush administration and particularly its decision to invade and occupy Iraq. In the process Mr. Byrd and Mr. Wexler also share their admiration for Turkey, highlighting in particular its opposition to the Iraq war – without listing, however, many of the reasons for that opposition.

    Both authors also avoid any mention of their efforts, on behalf of Turkish government, to kill resolutions affirming the U.S. record on the Armenian Genocide.

    Commenting on that subject during a July 14 book presentation organized by the Turkish lobby in Washington (see the Washington Briefing in the July 19 Armenian Reporter), Mr. Wexler noted that he represents a Florida district with probably the largest number of Holocaust survivors nationwide.

    “Issues relating to genocide of any type, alleged or not, have great sensitivity,” Mr. Wexler admitted, adding that one of his opponents this year is a son of a Holocaust survivor and used Mr. Wexler’s position on the Armenian Genocide resolution against him.

    Although West Virginia may have the smallest number of Holocaust survivors nationwide and there is hardly another member of Congress with a safer seat, Mr. Byrd also decided not to parade his record as an opponent of Genocide affirmation.

    The “Senator from Istanbul”

    Mr. Byrd is the longest-serving member of Congress; next year he will mark 50 years in elected office.

    As the Bush administration readied for the 2003 invasion, Mr. Byrd made an impassioned speech in the Senate arguing that the administration was going to war without a clear mandate from Congress and without Congress clearly informed as to threats Iraq posed to U.S. interests.

    In his book titled Letter to a New President: Commonsense Lessons for Our Next Leader (Thomas Dunne Books, 2008), Mr. Byrd also suggested that the “Bush Administration made the mistake of taking Turkish cooperation in the [Iraq war] for granted.”

    He writes: “The bitter and intemperate U.S. reaction to [the Turkish parliament’s decision not to allow the United States to open a northern front,] put more strain on U.S.-Turkey relations, as did U.S. backing of Iraqi Kurds in Kurdistan.”

    As a result, Mr. Byrd writes, the United States was left with “a foreign policy disaster,” whereas Turkish public’s approval for the United States fell from 52 percent in 1999 to 9 percent in 2007.

    In the book, Mr. Byrd also recalls the start of his relationship with Turkey in the early days of the Cold War. Shortly after his election to the House of Representatives and appointment to its Foreign Affairs Committee, the 38-year-old Rep. Byrd made his first-ever trip abroad with a delegation led by committee chair Rep. Clement Zablocki (D.-Wis.)

    The 1955 trip included a number of Western European countries and Turkey, which impressed the young member of Congress as a “key U.S. ally . . . with a largest standing army in Europe.”

    Turkey’s would-be prime minister

    “My wife jokes I could run for Prime Minister of Turkey,” Rep. Wexler writes in his Fire-breathing Liberal: How I Learned to Survive (and Thrive) in the Contact Sport of Congress (Thomas Dunne Books, 2008).

    The representative is proud of his popularity in Turkey and that, having been to the country seven times, he gets the same level of access in Ankara as does Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

    In Congress since 1996, Mr. Wexler “as co-founder of the Turkey caucus, worked hard to improve relations between the United States and that democratic, secular Muslim nation, a critical ally in the fight against terrorism.”

    As Mr. Byrd, Mr. Wexler writes that Turkey was right and the United States wrong on Iraq. “Had Bush listened to the advice of experts in the Turkish Foreign Ministry before launching the Iraq war, it is quite possible we wouldn’t be facing the chaos we’ve created now,” he writes.

    The representative recalled that shortly before the U.S. invasion, he met the Turkish Foreign Ministry’s undersecretary Ugur Ziyal, who “smoked many cigarettes with the most knowledgeable and powerful diplomats in the region.”

    Mr. Ziyal told Mr. Wexler that as bad as Saddam Hussein was, he was successfully containing various conflicting groups within Iraq and that without Hussein “chaos would replace despotism.”

    But instead of listening to these arguments, the United States’ message to Turkey, as delivered by then-Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz was “either you are with us or against us.”

    Mr. Wexler writes, “you will never successfully persuade a Turkish political entity, whether it’s individual or the Turkish Parliament, by first demeaning them.”

    He added: “Even if your logic is correct, and they should take certain steps, if you belittle them, they are not going to give you what you want.”

    Why Turkey opposed the war in Iraq

    While discussing U.S.-Turkish differences over Iraq, both authors leave the impression that Turkey’s opposition to the U.S. invasion was either born out of Ankara’s penchant for nonviolence or based on some deep knowledge of regional realities rather than selfish calculations.

    In fact, for more than 30 years Turkey has occupied northern Cyprus and repeatedly invaded northern Iraq both before and after the 2003 war. Maintaining one of the largest militaries in the world, Turkey remains a big believer in hard power.

    At the same time, it is no secret that Saddam Hussein’s rule over Iraq – and particularly his persecution of Kurds – was seen as beneficial to Turkey’s own security interests, focused as they have been since World War I on the Kurdish rebellion within Turkey that has gone on, with some significant interruptions, for more than 80 years.

    As both U.S. and Turkish sources make clear, Turkey’s eventual decision to stay out of the 2003 invasion of Iraq was more likely a product of an exaggerated sense of self-importance which led Ankara to demand a steep price for its cooperation.

    In the Turkish Milliyet newspaper, Fikret Bila wrote on December 5, 2002: “The USA has demanded military support from Turkey [in Iraq]. Turkey has put forth four conditions that must be fulfilled if Turkey is to meet the American demands. Here are Turkey’s conditions:

    “1. The war would entail, for Turkey, an estimated cost of $20-25 billion. America should meet that cost. Furthermore, that money must come directly from the USA’s War Budget.

    “2. Establishment of a Kurdish state in the North must not be permitted. If a federation is to be established in Iraq, Turcomans must be given the same status as the Kurds.

    “3. In the operation to be staged against Saddam, the Peshmergas [Kurdish militia groups in Northern Iraq] must not be used so as not to compromise the security of the Turcomans and Arabs in the region. The Peshmergas must not be armed.

    “4. If the war is going to be waged from the North, the region’s coming under British control would be unacceptable to Turkey. Security and control in Northern Iraq must be a job for Turkey.”

    Writing in his book Cobra II: The Inside Story of the Invasion and Occupation of Iraq (Pantheon, 2006), Michael Gordon recalls that months before the war “Turks… demanded $25 billion in outright grants from Colin Powell at an 11 PM meeting at the home of the Secretary of State.”

    The United States could not afford that price tag for Turkish cooperation and instead scraped up a package that included “$3 billion in aid, $3 billion in financing, and a promise to make a concentrated effort to persuade Persian Gulf states to provide $1 billion in free oil to help Turkish companies secure reconstruction contracts in Iraq and Afghanistan.”

    But this $10 billion package was not deemed as sufficient baksheesh. The Turkish government and military did not lobby their national parliament to approve U.S. use of Turkish territory for the invasion, and the proposal failed by just a few votes.

    Days later, the United States invaded without the Turkish front.