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Turkey’s Economic Weakness Fuels a Slow-Burning Political Crisis

Emily Hawthorne Middle East and North Africa Analyst, Stratfor Feb 17, 2020 | 10:00 GMT A Turkish tea seller carries a tray of glasses through the streets of a historic market district in Ankara. Rising inflation and slipping consumer confidence could cause the government in Ankara to continue to pursue an aggressive foreign policy to […]

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Turkey Digs In Its Heels in Idlib

Stratfor is now part of RANE, the Risk Assistance Network and Exchange Turkey Digs In Its Heels in Idlib Ryan Bohl Middle East and North Africa Analyst, Stratfor Turkish-backed Syrian fighters man an anti-aircraft gun in Saraqeb, in the northwestern Syrian province of Idlib on Feb. 1, 2020. Turkey and Russia could be on a […]

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Erdogan’s White House Visit May Have Only Delayed the Inevitable Storm

Sinan Ciddi Board of Contributors Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L) and U.S. President Donald Trump hold a news conference at the White House on Nov. 13, 2019. Other than Trump, Erdogan appears to have few friends left in Washington. (HALIL SAGIRKAYA/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images) Highlights Despite some worries otherwise, Turkish President Recep Tayyip […]

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Turkey and the West: A Gathering Storm?

Nov 7, 2019 | 23:02 GMT The strategies pursued by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may have alienated some of the country’s traditional allies, but they have boosted his nationalist credentials at home. (ATTILA KISBENEDEK/AFP via Getty Images) Turkey, straddling a strategic geographic nexus between Europe and Asia, is the focus of conversation in this […]

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Turkey and the West: A Gathering Storm?

Nov 7, 2019 | 23:02 GMT The strategies pursued by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may have alienated some of the country’s traditional allies, but they have boosted his nationalist credentials at home. (ATTILA KISBENEDEK/AFP via Getty Images) Turkey, straddling a strategic geographic nexus between Europe and Asia, is the focus of conversation in this […]

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Turkey May Have Stepped Into Its Own ‘Endless War’ in Syria

Charles Glass Board of Contributors oct 25, 2019 | 10:00 GMT Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to deploy joint Russian-Turkish patrols in the so-called security zone Erdogan has ordered Syrian Kurds to evacuate. (SEFA KARACAN/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images) Highlights Since its emergence as a republic after World War I, […]

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Is this the Beginning of the End for Turkey’s Erdogan? Stratfor Enterprises, LLC.

Jul 3, 2019 | 19:25 GMT By Sinan Ciddi Board of Contributors Sinan Ciddi Board of Contributors (MIKHAIL SVETLOV/Getty Images) Contributor Perspectives offer insight, analysis and commentary from Stratfor’s Board of Contributors and guest contributors who are distinguished leaders in their fields of expertise. Highlights In Turkey, the opposition’s Ekrem Imamoglu soundly defeated his ruling […]

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An Impatient Turkey Gets Ready to Enter Northeastern Syria, Stratfor Enterprises, LLC

Aug 7, 2019 | 09:00 GMT (DELIL SOULEIMAN/AFP/Getty Images) Highlights Turkey has long warned of an imminent offensive into northeastern Syria, but its latest warnings suggest an incursion is imminent this time. A combination of Turkish impatience and a narrowing window for action could drive Ankara to finally launch the military operation. But given that […]

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Turkey’s Delicate Dance in Iraqi Kurdistan

Jul 24, 2019 | 09:00 GMT (FERIQ FEREC/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images) Highlights After a brief hiatus following the September 2017 failed independence referendum, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) has reclaimed its place at the helm of the Kurdish government in northern Iraq. The return of the political status quo in the region will open the KDP […]

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Turkey: Erdogan Appears Willing to Trade Economic Risk for Political Gain

  Turkey: Erdogan Appears Willing to Trade Economic Risk for Political Gain (Stratfor) The Big Picture A number of converging events recently have increased the risks to economic and political stability in Turkey. Even so, as Stratfor’s Third-Quarter Forecast pointed out, the Turkish government will maneuver among its numerous domestic and external problems, calculating that […]

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Geopolitics Keeps Pushing Turkey and Israel Back Together

(HANS SLEGERS/Shutterstock.com) Highlights Turkey and Israel’s strategic alliance in the Middle East, fostered by their shared aim to limit Iran and prevent Arab states from aligning against them, will preserve their relationship through most external shocks. Intensifying U.S. efforts to find regional allies it can rely on to contain Iran helps keep the two countries […]

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Ankara Calculates the Risks of an Offensive in Northeastern Syria

(OMAR HAJ KADOUR/AFP/Getty Images) Highlights Amid the U.S. drawdown of forces from Syria, Turkey is gearing up for further incursions in the country to reduce the power of the Syrian Democratic Forces. Residual U.S. and allied forces will remain, however, raising the risk of a miscalculation or confrontation as Turkish forces push into the area.  […]

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Will an Economic Reckoning Follow Turkey’s Local Elections?

Will an Economic Reckoning Follow Turkey’s Local Elections? By Sinan Ciddi Board of Contributors Sinan Ciddi Board of Contributors (ADEM ALTAN/AFP/Getty Images) Contributor Perspectives offer insight, analysis and commentary from Stratfor’s Board of Contributors and guest contributors who are distinguished leaders in their fields of expertise. Highlights Consumer prices, a deteriorating economy and relations with […]

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Counting the Cost of Potential U.S. Action Against Turkey

Highlights In response to any Turkish attack on the Syrian Kurds, the United States has the power to indirectly sway investor confidence in Turkey largely because of the lira’s inherent volatility and the structural weaknesses of its economy. Turkey can’t do as much economic damage to the United States, but it can create problems for […]

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Israel, Palestinian Territories: Are the Pieces Falling Into Place for a Big Blowup in Gaza?

The Big Picture Israeli and Palestinian factions, long trapped in conflict, have routinely fallen into patterns of violence. A stalemated peace process, a fragmented Palestinian political system and an Israeli government often rewarded by voters for hard-edge approaches have kept these cycles going. But since 2014, Israel and its primary Palestinian antagonist, Hamas, have had […]

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As Turkey Enters 2019, Its Economic Woes Are Never Far Away STRATFOR

Highlights Since many of Turkey’s woes are driven by external factors, the government will struggle to manage the country’s economic fragility in 2019. Because of the economic headwinds, Turkey will seek to minimize some tensions with Western governments such as the United States and the European Union, but it won’t abandon its national security goals, […]

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Politika Türkiye

Erdoğan’ın baş danışmanı CIA raportörü çıktı

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’ın baş danışmanı İbrahim Kalın, CIA raportörü çıktı recep tayyip erdogan cia raportoru ibrahim kalin BAKIN ŞU MEMLEKETİN HALİNE… CIA‘nın gölgesi olarak adlandırılan Stratfor‘un kaynağının Başbakan Erdoğan’ın dışişlerinden sorumlu Başdanışmanı İbrahim Kalın olduğunu, Wikileaks‘te yayımlanan Stratfor belgelerinde ortaya çıktı… Stratfor, AKP iktidarını zor durumda bırakmaya devam ediyor… Stratfor nedir? Parçalanmış Türkiye haritasını ilk yayımlayan düşünce kuruluşudur. Amerikan […]

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Türkiye

Türkiye savaşa girecek

Gölge CIA’den bomba iddia Daha önce Türkiye’dekiler dâhil gizli yazışmaları ortaya dökülen Stratfor özel istihbarat ve düşünce kuruluşu 2015-2025 yılları arasındaki tahminlerine yer verdiği onyıllık bir rapor yayınladı. Stratfor raporunda, “Güney sınırları bu savaşla hassas hale gelen Türkiye yavaşça savaşın içine çekilecek. Bu onyılın sonunda Türkiye büyük bir bölgesel güç olarak ortaya çıkacak ve sonuç üzerine Türk-İran rekabeti de artacak” denildi. […]