Is this the Beginning of the End for Turkey’s Erdogan? Stratfor Enterprises, LLC.

Jul 3, 2019 | 19:25 GMT By Sinan Ciddi Board of Contributors Sinan Ciddi Board of Contributors (MIKHAIL SVETLOV/Getty Images) Contributor Perspectives offer insight, analysis and commentary from Stratfor’s Board of Contributors and guest contributors who are distinguished leaders in their fields of expertise. Highlights In Turkey, the opposition’s Ekrem Imamoglu soundly defeated his ruling […]

An Impatient Turkey Gets Ready to Enter Northeastern Syria, Stratfor Enterprises, LLC

Aug 7, 2019 | 09:00 GMT (DELIL SOULEIMAN/AFP/Getty Images) Highlights Turkey has long warned of an imminent offensive into northeastern Syria, but its latest warnings suggest an incursion is imminent this time. A combination of Turkish impatience and a narrowing window for action could drive Ankara to finally launch the military operation. But given that […]

Turkey’s Delicate Dance in Iraqi Kurdistan

Jul 24, 2019 | 09:00 GMT (FERIQ FEREC/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images) Highlights After a brief hiatus following the September 2017 failed independence referendum, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) has reclaimed its place at the helm of the Kurdish government in northern Iraq. The return of the political status quo in the region will open the KDP […]

Turkey: Erdogan Appears Willing to Trade Economic Risk for Political Gain

  Turkey: Erdogan Appears Willing to Trade Economic Risk for Political Gain (Stratfor) The Big Picture A number of converging events recently have increased the risks to economic and political stability in Turkey. Even so, as Stratfor’s Third-Quarter Forecast pointed out, the Turkish government will maneuver among its numerous domestic and external problems, calculating that […]

Geopolitics Keeps Pushing Turkey and Israel Back Together

(HANS SLEGERS/Shutterstock.com) Highlights Turkey and Israel’s strategic alliance in the Middle East, fostered by their shared aim to limit Iran and prevent Arab states from aligning against them, will preserve their relationship through most external shocks. Intensifying U.S. efforts to find regional allies it can rely on to contain Iran helps keep the two countries […]

Ankara Calculates the Risks of an Offensive in Northeastern Syria

(OMAR HAJ KADOUR/AFP/Getty Images) Highlights Amid the U.S. drawdown of forces from Syria, Turkey is gearing up for further incursions in the country to reduce the power of the Syrian Democratic Forces. Residual U.S. and allied forces will remain, however, raising the risk of a miscalculation or confrontation as Turkish forces push into the area.  […]

Will an Economic Reckoning Follow Turkey’s Local Elections?

Will an Economic Reckoning Follow Turkey’s Local Elections? By Sinan Ciddi Board of Contributors Sinan Ciddi Board of Contributors (ADEM ALTAN/AFP/Getty Images) Contributor Perspectives offer insight, analysis and commentary from Stratfor’s Board of Contributors and guest contributors who are distinguished leaders in their fields of expertise. Highlights Consumer prices, a deteriorating economy and relations with […]

Counting the Cost of Potential U.S. Action Against Turkey

Highlights In response to any Turkish attack on the Syrian Kurds, the United States has the power to indirectly sway investor confidence in Turkey largely because of the lira’s inherent volatility and the structural weaknesses of its economy. Turkey can’t do as much economic damage to the United States, but it can create problems for […]

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Are the Pieces Falling Into Place for a Big Blowup in Gaza?

The Big Picture Israeli and Palestinian factions, long trapped in conflict, have routinely fallen into patterns of violence. A stalemated peace process, a fragmented Palestinian political system and an Israeli government often rewarded by voters for hard-edge approaches have kept these cycles going. But since 2014, Israel and its primary Palestinian antagonist, Hamas, have had […]

As Turkey Enters 2019, Its Economic Woes Are Never Far Away STRATFOR

Highlights Since many of Turkey’s woes are driven by external factors, the government will struggle to manage the country’s economic fragility in 2019. Because of the economic headwinds, Turkey will seek to minimize some tensions with Western governments such as the United States and the European Union, but it won’t abandon its national security goals, […]