The AKP in Pursuit of a Political Strategy

Turkey’s government will implement populist and nationalist policies at home and abroad ahead of the 2023 elections, potentially triggering fiscal (, economic, diplomatic and/or military crises. Uncertain about its electoral prospects in 2023, the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) will pursue policies designed to curry favor with its traditional Islamist-nationalist base. It will seek to appeal to Islamists by citing religious tenets to justify controversial policies like keeping low interest rates at the central bank and weakening human rights protections if they contravene local religious values. To appeal to nationalists, it will initiate limited confrontations with the European Union in the Eastern Mediterranean, with the United States over Turkey’s defense ties with Russia, and with Russia over Turkey’s continued military intervention in Russian ally Syria. Though the AKP will, of course, try to avoid triggering a crisis, it is not positioned to ensure its high-risk policies do not spur unprecedented inflation, further capital flight and even a major debt crisis in 2022; its management of the lira is especially fraught. Meanwhile, Turkey’s more aggressive foreign policy could trigger fresh sanctions from the European Union and/or the United States. And if Russian ( and Turkish forces clash and there are significant casualties on either side in Syria, the military confrontation could spread to other theaters where Turkey and Russia back opposing sides, like Ukraine and the Caucasus. 

Enjoy ??Cheerio !!!~

Richard C De Graff

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