![\"ERDOGAN.........\"](\"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/12\/ERDOGAN..........jpg\")
:<\/div>\nWhat a difference 24 months can make. In November 2011, Tehran was fuming over Turkey\u2019s agreement to host a Nato missile shield designed to protect Israel from retaliation if it attacked Iran. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard\u2019s head of aerospace vowed that any foreign attack would see Iran strike Turkey.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
In October 2012, Turkish fighter jets intercepted a Syrian passenger plane suspected of carrying weapons for the Bashar Al Assad regime, as it flew from Moscow to Damascus. Although the plane was subsequently allowed to continue its journey, the incident greatly angered the Russian federation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Since the beginning of the Syrian crisis, Turkey has been the most outspoken and pro-active supporter of the opposition, driving an even bigger wedge between Shiite allies Tehran and Damascus and Sunni Ankara.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Last week, however, Turkey appeared to look around at the rapidly changing regional scenario and begin a determined diplomatic U-turn.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
First, a top-level Turkish delegation \u2014 comprising Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and Energy Minister Taner Yildiz \u2014 arrived in Russia for an official two-day state visit and a meeting of the Turkish-Russian high-level cooperation council. Erdogan asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to organise a seat on the Shanghai Cooperation Council \u2014 a snub to the European Union which has littered Turkey\u2019s accession to its ranks with obstacles. On Syria, Putin boasted of Russia\u2019s role in \u2018persuading the regime\u2019 to attend the January 22 Geneva II peace conference and asked Turkey to convince the opposition to do likewise. Markedly absent was Turkey\u2019s former insistence that Al Assad\u2019s departure was a nonnegotiable precondition for the talks, although Erdogan suggested that the conference might \u201cbuy time\u201d for the re<\/p>\n
Last Wednesday, Davutoglu went to Tehran to meet his Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Javad Zarif. It was all-smiles and handshakes as the two men announced that Iran and Turkey would \u201ccooperate to defuse the crisis and stop the bloodshed in Syria\u201d. In a major breakthrough, they jointly called for a ceasefire ahead of Geneva II and pledged that \u201cboth sides will work … to encourage the opposing sides in Syria to agree\u201d. Davutoglu was also granted a tete-a-tete with the new Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani, who announced his intention to visit Ankara in January.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Clearly, all of the above represent a major change of attitude in Ankara.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Erdogan\u2019s position on Syria initially afforded him many powerful allies, but one by one, they have dropped off. The US and Europe have stepped back from the frontline to reconsider their strategy and loyalties \u2014 Washington\u2019s shock rapprochement with Tehran, in particular, reset the whole region\u2019s political paradigm. In addition, Erdogan\u2019s support for deposed president Mohammad Mursi in Egypt has alienated the Gulf states \u2014 whose investments helped Turkey become the regional economic miracle \u2014 and led to Cairo\u2019s military junta expelling the Turkish ambassador.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Other developments have also pushed Erdogan on the back foot:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
First, the de facto liberation of Syria\u2019s Kurdish regions, which Ankara sees as a threat to its own national integrity and security. Eighteen million of the region\u2019s 38 million Kurds live in Turkish territory. Ankara views the independence movement, the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), as \u201cterrorist\u201d and its leader, Abdullah Ocalan, is currently languishing in a Turkish jail.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Second, the Barack Obama administration\u2019s surprise bilateral agreement with Moscow on Syrian chemical weapons disarmament, which put a halt to the military strike everyone believed was imminent. Coupled with Washington\u2019s volte face on Iran, it is now clear that Obama favours political, rather than military, solutions in both theatres.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Third, Turkey\u2019s internal situation is experiencing some turbulence: The Alevi minority, a Shiite sect with links to Al Assad\u2019s Alawite sect, has been taking to the streets in the thousands following the death, in police custody, of one of their members, Ahmet Atakan. Protests over environmental issues too have become a focal point for opposition groups in Turkey.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Fourth, jihadist groups have been able to recruit Turkish youths to fight in their ranks in Syria. Turkish intelligence puts the number of Turks currently fighting with Al Qaida affiliate, the Islamic State of Iraq and Shams (ISIS) and Jabhat Al Nusra at around 500. A \u2018blowback\u2019 \u2014 when radicalised youths return home after jihad \u2014 is of concern to all governments.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
It is not surprising, then, that Ankara has been casting around for new alliances and greater security. Apart from visits to Iran and Russia, Turkey has signed new arms deals with China and instigated rapprochement with Iraq, which Davutoglu visited two weeks ago.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Turkey\u2019s A-list Russian charm offensive testifies to Moscow\u2019s upward trajectory on the international stage, largely due to its diplomatic triumphs on Syria. Erdogan arrived in St Petersburg a day after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu left Moscow, having unsuccessfully tried to disrupt last week\u2019s historic agreement between Iran and the 5+1 group of powers (US, Britain, France, Russia, China + Germany).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Saudi intelligence chief Prince Bandar Bin Sultan has also called on Putin in recent months and it appears to be the season of pilgrimage to the Kremlin by Washington\u2019s veteran allies who suddenly find themselves alone.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Erdogan is a pragmatic leader, who is prepared to change course when circumstances and national interests so dictate. Discovering at the eleventh hour that Turkey was about to be marginalised over Geneva II and regional diplomacy in general, Erdogan has thrown himself whole-heartedly into the thick of it. We would not be surprised if the coming days or weeks see Davutoglu packing his suitcase once more and heading for Damascus to meet Al Assad.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Abdel Bari Atwan is the former editor of the pan-Arab newspaper Al Quds Al Arabi. His latest book is After Bin Laden: Al Qaida, the Next Generation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Discovering at the eleventh hour that Turkey was about to be marginalised over Geneva II and regional diplomacy in general, the prime minister has thrown himself whole-heartedly into the thick of it By Abdel Bari Atwan | Special to Gulf News Published: 20:00 December 2, 2013 : What a difference 24 months can make. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":83,"featured_media":86621,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[89],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-86620","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-turkey"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86620","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/83"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=86620"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86620\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/86621"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=86620"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=86620"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=86620"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}