By Soner Cagaptay, Saturday, November\u00a09, 1:42\u00a0AM<\/p>\n
Soner Cagaptay is a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and the author of \u201cThe Rise of Turkey: The Twenty-First Century\u2019s First Muslim Power.\u201d He is on Twitter: @sonercagaptay.<\/p>\n
Two years ago, I argued in a Post op-ed that Turkey was pivoting toward the United States. This policy has not ushered in what Ankara wanted: American firepower to oust the Assad regime in Syria. And feeling alone, Turkey has started to seek other allies, including Beijing.<\/p>\n
When the Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and other Turkish officials toyed with the idea of being a stand-alone actor in the Middle East. By 2011, they had realized that the Arab Spring would create long-term instability in their neighborhood and would position Iran against Turkey in Syria. Turkey adeptly pivoted toward the United States. The two nations worked with other countries to oust Moammar Gaddafi in Libya that year and, early on, coordinated policies against the Assad regime .<\/p>\n
Gallery<\/p>\n
Tom Toles goes global:\u2009A collection of cartoons about international news.<\/p>\n
Even more important for U.S.-Turkish relations, President Obama and Erdogan hit it off. The two leaders spoke often and were eager to listen to each other about Middle East issues. The convergence was so apparent that in September 2011 Turkey abandoned its rhetorical hedging that Iran \u201chas the right to pursue nuclear energy research for peaceful purposes\u201d and joined NATO\u2019s missile defense shield.<\/p>\n
This is why Turkey\u2019s recent announcement that it would buy air defense systems from China \u2014 a first for any NATO member \u2014 was a shock. If finalized, this deal would deal a serious blow to Turkey\u2019s relations with the United States and with NATO, opening the alliance\u2019s security umbrella to potential Chinese snooping.<\/p>\n
Two issues are driving Ankara\u2019s pivot away from Washington. First, Turkey aspires to build its defense industry and has been disappointed that U.S. companies would not transfer technology in return for weapons purchases. Turkish officials see turning to China as a way to enhance their bargaining power with U.S. companies.<\/p>\n
Second, Turkey is signaling its disappointment with the Obama administration\u2019s Syria policy \u2014 or lack thereof. Turkey has pursued regime change in Damascus since 2012, providing weapons and haven to the Syrian opposition. Ankara has tried to persuade Washington to join its efforts and significantly support the opposition. The United States has done neither.<\/p>\n
Turkey\u2019s sense of abandonment was heightened in the aftermath of the chemical weapons deal U.S. and Russian officials brokered in September, which, in Turkish minds, provided a lifeline for the Assad regime.<\/p>\n
Turkey foresees two grave eventual\u00adities in Syria: an Iran-backed hostile rump state at its border \u2014 whose leaders will not forget Ankara\u2019s support for the Syrian rebels \u2014 and al-Qaeda-controlled enclaves.<\/p>\n
Whichever way Syria goes, Turkish officials expect that the outcome is likely to be unfavorable for them and that they will need allies to mitigate the fallout.<\/p>\n
The Turkish government\u2019s heavy-handed treatment of protesters this summer also affected the relationship. When the police cracked down on a small pro-environment gathering in Istanbul, millions of Turks took to the streets to demand respect for freedom of assembly and liberal democracy \u2014 and were met with a more violent government reaction. Before these protests, Erdogan and Obama chatted often. Since then, Washington has been mostly deaf to Turkish appeals on Syria.<\/p>\n
For the past decade, Turkey has been surrounded by mostly troubled neighbors. By comparison, it has looked like an island of stability. Istanbul\u2019s financial markets have attracted international capital in excess of $40 billion annually, driving record-breaking growth. The Syrian civil war changes this context. With a weak and divided state next door and al-Qaeda at its border, Turkey\u2019s image as the region\u2019s stable nation is eroding, and its economic growth could be undermined. This could complicate, or even derail, Erdogan\u2019s plans to run for president next year as he is likely to be elected again only if Turkey continues growing.<\/p>\n
So after failing to get a U.S. commitment on action in Syria, Turkey is flirting with the Chinese and, potentially, the Russians to lock in additional long-term security. Eyeing the negotiations over Iran\u2019s nuclear program, Turkish officials could seek their own deal with Tehran over Syria. Turkey hosted the Iranian foreign minister in Ankara on Nov. 1, hinting at the end of a period of cold ties. Ankara is trying to ameliorate its relations with Iraq, which soured over Baghdad\u2019s objection to warm ties between Turks and the Iraqi Kurds. Turkey needs Iraq, one of Syria\u2019s other neighbors, as an ally to contain a Syrian meltdown if it cannot bring an end to the Assad regime.<\/p>\n
The honeymoon in U.S.-Turkish ties is over. Turkey is out to gather as many friends as it can line up in the Middle East. The United States might be just one of them.<\/p>\n
via Turkey seeks to lock in long-term security – The Washington Post.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
By Soner Cagaptay, Saturday, November\u00a09, 1:42\u00a0AM Soner Cagaptay is a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and the author of \u201cThe Rise of Turkey: The Twenty-First Century\u2019s First Muslim Power.\u201d He is on Twitter: @sonercagaptay. Two years ago, I argued in a Post op-ed that Turkey was pivoting toward the United States. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":83,"featured_media":42224,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[34],"tags":[145],"class_list":["post-86099","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-usa","tag-barack-obama"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86099","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/83"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=86099"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86099\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/42224"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=86099"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=86099"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=86099"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}