{"id":8488,"date":"2009-01-13T22:43:49","date_gmt":"2009-01-13T19:43:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/?p=8488"},"modified":"2023-06-17T14:43:54","modified_gmt":"2023-06-17T11:43:54","slug":"forecast-2009-deflation-and-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/2009\/01\/13\/forecast-2009-deflation-and-recession\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast 2009: Deflation and Recession"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
<\/div>\n
\n

Thoughts From The Frontline
\nJohn Mauldin’s Weekly E-Letter<\/h2>\n
<\/div>\n

\n<\/div>\n

Forecast 2009: Deflation and Recession<\/h2>\n

by John Mauldin<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

January 12, 2009<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

IN THIS ISSUE:<\/strong><\/em><\/div>\n
Forecast 2009: Deflation, Deleveraging, and the Stimulus Effect
\nMuddle Through on Hold
\nLies, Damned Lies, and Government Unemployment Numbers
\nCentral Bankers of the World, Unite!
\nPredictions 2009
\nLa Jolla, Bermuda, and Europe<\/strong><\/div>\n
\n
Where are we headed in 2009? We will explore that in detail over the next few issues of Thoughts from the Frontline, but today we will start with some of the larger forces which will have a major impact on the economies of the world, and I will end with my usual attempt to forecast the various markets. We will look at deflation, deleveraging, the fallout from the stimulus plans (note plural), housing, consumer spending, unemployment, and a lot more. There is a lot to cover. But first two quick announcements.<\/div>\n
Along with my partners Altegris Investments I will be co-hosting our 6th<\/sup> annual Strategic Investment Conference in La Jolla, California, April 2-4. I have invited some of the top economic minds in the country to come and address us, giving us their views on what seem to be a continuing crisis. It will be a mix of economic theory and practical investment advice. Already committed to speak are Martin Barnes, Woody Brock, Dennis Gartman, Louis Gave, George Friedman (of Stratfor), and Paul McCulley. I anticipate adding another stellar name or two. This is as strong a lineup as we have ever had, and on par with any conference I know of anywhere.<\/div>\n
Due to securities regulations, attendance is limited to qualified high-net-worth investors and\/or institutional investors. Early registrants will get a discount. Last year we had to close registration, and I anticipate we will run out of room again, so I would not procrastinate. Simply click on the link below, give us your name and email, and you will be sent a form next week to register.<\/div>\n
<\/span><\/div>\n
I should note that most attendees say this conference is the best investment conference they have ever been to. One of the benefits is being with several hundred very nice people in a relaxed setting. We do it up right.<\/div>\n
Second, I and some of my fellow newsletter writers (Bill Bonner and Dennis Gartman, among others, are slated to be there) are going to be hosting a special tribute dinner to honor Richard Russell for his outstanding contribution of over 50 years to not only the craft of investment writing but also to the lives and investment portfolios of his readers. He is one of my personal heroes as well as a good friend. At 84, his writing today is better than ever, and now he writes every day, not just once a month! Richard is an institution in the investment writing world, and after talking with his wife Faye he has said he will let us plan the dinner.<\/div>\n
Richard has some of the most loyal readers anywhere. I have personally talked to people who have been reading Dow Theory Letters<\/em> almost since the beginning (1956), and their enthusiasm for all things Richard has not waned. We have a long list of people who want to attend.<\/div>\n
Based on the response so far, we believe we can get a large roomful of Richard’s friends, writing colleagues, and fans who have benefitted from his wisdom over the years, to honor him for a life well-lived and a true servant’s spirit, as well as being a guide not just in the markets but in life.. The dinner will be Saturday evening, April 4, 2009 in San Diego. In order to know how many people we should plan for, please send an email to russelltribute@2000wave.com indicating how many tickets you would like. If you have already responded, you will get an email with a link next week for you to register. If you have not and want to come, I suggest you do so quickly, as again we anticipate a packed room. The tickets will be $195, with any money left over going to Richard’s favorite charity.<\/div>\n
(Note: If you register for my conference, you must register separately for the Russell Tribute Dinner, which will be held at a different venue, after the close of my conference on Saturday. Thanks!)<\/div>\n
And for new readers and those who get this letter forwarded to them, you can get a free subscription of your own just by going to www.investorsinsight.com. And now to our regular letter.<\/div>\n
\n

ADVERTISEMENT<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Fatten your 401K in 2009. Proven Trading System. AlphaKing.com<\/strong><\/div>\n
Quit worrying about your 401K and invest the AlphaKing way.<\/strong> We made money in 2008 while others lost big. Our Index Portfolio was UP 70% in 2008!<\/span><\/strong><\/div>\n
Free 30-day Trial to Portfolios, No credit card needed.<\/div>\n
Proven trend following system. It works. Bull or bear, its all the same to us. Check us out. Read the Tours page. Read the Archives. See Performance page.<\/div>\n
We do all the work.<\/strong> If your brokerage account or 401K needs fattening up then AlphaKing.com<\/strong> is for you. Click: <\/strong><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Muddle Through on Hold<\/h3>\n
First, a quick look back at how I did in my 2008 forecast issue. In general, it was not a bad year in terms of getting the direction right on many of the markets, including gold, oil, the dollar (especially against the pound sterling), and stocks. Some predictions were on target, like a second-half rebound in the dollar.<\/div>\n
But I missed the economy. I noted then that I believed we were already in recession (which we have now found out that we were), and I wrote that a recovery would begin by the end of the year, but that it would be a very weak one for a long time — my basic Muddle Through scenario. Obviously, the recession is a lot worse than I thought it would be at the time. Looking to the end of this letter, I now think we will be in recession through at least 2009 before we begin a recovery, which will again be a rather anemic Muddle Through period of maybe two years, for a variety of reasons, some of which I cover today and others over the next few weeks.<\/div>\n
And I should note that it was not long into the year before I began to get decidedly more gloomy, as many of you noted. And I expect that this year will bring a few surprises that will cause me to change my opinions yet again. When the facts change, I will try and change with them.<\/div>\n
\n
\n
John Mauldin’s 2009 Economic Forecast Special Report is available in PDF format and registered users of InvestorsInsight.com may download their copy for free from our FREEmiums media gallery.<\/strong><\/div>\n
Not a registered user? Registration is quick and free! Register now and get access to John’s 2009 Economic Forecast today…<\/div>\n
Don’t be the last to know… Register and download John Mauldin’s Special Economic Report today!<\/em><\/div>\n

Download The Full Article Now >><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n
\n
Copyright 2009 John Mauldin. All Rights Reserved.<\/div>\n
Note:<\/strong> The generic Accredited Investor E-letters are not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of John Mauldin and Millennium Wave Investments. It is intended solely for accredited investors who have registered with Millennium Wave Investments and Altegris Investments at www.accreditedinvestor.ws or directly related websites and have been so registered for no less than 30 days. The Accredited Investor E-Letter is provided on a confidential basis, and subscribers to the Accredited Investor E-Letter are not to send this letter to anyone other than their professional investment counselors. Investors should discuss any investment with their personal investment counsel. John Mauldin is the President of Millennium Wave Advisors, LLC (MWA), which is an investment advisory firm registered with multiple states. John Mauldin is a registered representative of Millennium Wave Securities, LLC, (MWS), an FINRA registered broker-dealer. MWS is also a Commodity Pool Operator (CPO) and a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) registered with the CFTC, as well as an Introducing Broker (IB). Millennium Wave Investments is a dba of MWA LLC and MWS LLC. Millennium Wave Investments cooperates in the consulting on and marketing of private investment offerings with other independent firms such as Altegris Investments; Absolute Return Partners, LLP; Pro-Hedge Funds; EFG Capital International Corp; and Plexus Asset Management. Funds recommended by Mauldin may pay a portion of their fees to these independent firms, who will share 1\/3 of those fees with MWS and thus with Mauldin. Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest with any CTA, fund, or program mentioned here or elsewhere. Before seeking any advisor’s services or making an investment in a fund, investors must read and examine thoroughly the respective disclosure document or offering memorandum. Since these firms and Mauldin receive fees from the funds they recommend\/market, they only recommend\/market products with which they have been able to negotiate fee arrangements.<\/div>\n
Print View | Contact John Mauldin Here<\/span><\/div>\n

Subscriber Services<\/h4>\n
You are currently subscribed as rdegraff@yahoo.com.<\/div>\n
To change your email address<\/strong>, go here.<\/div>\n
To unsubscribe<\/strong> from John Mauldin’s Thoughts From the Frontline, go here.<\/div>\n
You have permission to publish this article electronically or in print as long as the following is included:<\/div>\n

John Mauldin, Best-Selling author and recognized financial expert, is also editor of the free Thoughts From the Frontline that goes to over 1 million readers each week. for more information on John or his FREE weekly economic letter go to: http:\/\/www.frontlinethoughts.com\/learnmore<\/span><\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

For advertising inquires please contact adsales@investorsinsight.com<\/div>\n

Notice<\/h4>\n
John Mauldin is president of Millennium Wave Advisors, LLC, a registered investment advisor. All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Investment recommendations may change and readers are urged to check with their investment counselors before making any investment decisions.<\/div>\n
Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. John Mauldin and\/or the staffs at Millennium Wave Advisors, LLC and InvestorsInsight Publishing, Inc. (InvestorsInsight) may or may not have investments in any funds, programs or companies cited above.<\/div>\n
PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS, INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS, YOU SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS: OFTEN ENGAGE IN LEVERAGING AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES THAT MAY INCREASE THE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS, CAN BE ILLIQUID, ARE NOT REQUIRED TO PROVIDE PERIODIC PRICING OR VALUATION INFORMATION TO INVESTORS, MAY INVOLVE COMPLEX TAX STRUCTURES AND DELAYS IN DISTRIBUTING IMPORTANT TAX INFORMATION, ARE NOT SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.<\/div>\n
Communications from InvestorsInsight are intended solely for informational purposes. Statements made by various authors, advertisers, sponsors and other contributors do not necessarily reflect the opinions of InvestorsInsight, and should not be construed as an endorsement by InvestorsInsight, either expressed or implied. InvestorsInsight is not responsible for typographic errors or other inaccuracies in the content. We believe the information contained herein to be accurate and reliable. However, errors may occasionally occur. Therefore, all information and materials are provided “AS IS” without any warranty of any kind. Past results are not indicative of future results.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Thoughts From The Frontline John Mauldin’s Weekly E-Letter Forecast 2009: Deflation and Recession by John Mauldin January 12, 2009 IN THIS ISSUE: Forecast 2009: Deflation, Deleveraging, and the Stimulus Effect Muddle Through on Hold Lies, Damned Lies, and Government Unemployment Numbers Central Bankers of the World, Unite! Predictions 2009 La Jolla, Bermuda, and Europe Where […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":83,"featured_media":35085,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[89],"tags":[901],"class_list":["post-8488","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-turkey","tag-financial"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8488","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/83"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8488"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8488\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/35085"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8488"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8488"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8488"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}