{"id":61825,"date":"2012-12-27T15:33:35","date_gmt":"2012-12-27T13:33:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/?p=61825"},"modified":"2023-04-06T15:01:11","modified_gmt":"2023-04-06T12:01:11","slug":"turkey-will-pay-a-high-price-after-assad","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/2012\/12\/27\/turkey-will-pay-a-high-price-after-assad\/","title":{"rendered":"Turkey Will Pay a High Price After Assad"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Syrian<\/div>\n
Syrian children from the northern Syrian town of Ras al-Ain are pictured near the Turkish border fence as gunfire is heard between the Free Syrian Army and the armed Kurds of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) in the northern Syrian town of Ceylanpinar, Nov. 25, 2012. (photo by REUTERS\/Amr Abdallah Dalsh)<\/div>\n
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By: Kadri Gursel<\/strong>. posted on Wed, Dec 26<\/strong>.<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
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If we have to explain Turkey\u2019s fundamental mistake in the Syria crisis, there is no better way than \u201cputting all the eggs in one basket.\u201d This is exactly what Turkey did by putting all its eggs in the basket of the Muslim Brotherhood and locked itself into the parameters of a zero-sum game.<\/p>\n

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About This Article<\/h3>\n
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Summary :<\/p>\n

By throwing its lot completely with Syria\u2019s Muslim Brotherhood, Turkey will sustain costs whether Syrian President Bashar al-Assad stays or goes, writes Kadri Gursel.<\/div>\n

Author: Kadri Gursel
\nposted on: Wed, Dec 26, 2012<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

But a zero-sum game couldn\u2019t be played in Syria. For Turkey to emerge from the Syrian conflict as a country collecting all the bonuses, the Muslim Brotherhood has to fully and absolutely dominate the entirety of Syria. The likelihood of this is close to zero.<\/p>\n

Foreign-policy makers in Ankara, while putting all Turkish eggs into the Muslim Brotherhood basket, acted recklessly with extreme self-confidence, confident that the Baath regime will be toppled in a short time.<\/p>\n

One reason why the neo-Islamist elite ruling Turkey today adopted an attitude that was far removed from realities was their underestimation of the institutional resistance capacity of the Baath regime against an uprising. This was a gross misjudgment.<\/p>\n

But that wasn\u2019t the only reason: There were also emotional instincts in play.<\/p>\n

The AKP elite was in an unprecedented euphoria after seeing the Arab uprisings bring the Muslim Brotherhood to power in Egypt, and Islamists in two other Maghreb countries, while Sunnis were marching toward power in Syria. Here we have to take note that the AKP represents the Muslim Brotherhood traditions in Turkey.<\/p>\n

The hope that solidarity among countries dominated by Sunni-based Islam could lead to a new Middle East order in the eastern Mediterranean basin created that euphoria within the AKP elite who lost track of reality. Emotional factors played a significant role in the emergence of Sunni, Islamic and Ottoman elements in Turkey\u2019s foreign policy.<\/p>\n

Now, the general expectation is for Assad to be ousted in near future, one way or the other.<\/p>\n

For the rulers of Turkey, the criterion for the success of their Syrian policy is Assad\u2019s departure. We are expected to applaud the success of their policy once Assad goes. But if we apply concrete assessment criteria, a positive reaction to their wish won\u2019t be possible.<\/p>\n

Before answering the question \u201cWhat problems await Turkey once Assad goes?\u201d we must ask ourselves \u201cWhat will be the price of Assad staying in power longer than expected?\u201d<\/p>\n

Turkey has already paid a heavy political and economic price for Assad clinging to power for 21 months despite all overt and covert policies and measures we employed to topple him.<\/p>\n

As an example, we can cite the\u00a0almost total disruption of our land trade with the Middle East and costs accrued to transport, production and agricultural sectors. Naturally there will be a price AKP has to pay in domestic politics for this situation. The masses of Syrian refugees more or less invited with the hope that they may facilitate setting up a buffer zone did not work. Today, Turkey is carrying alone the financial burden of more than 140,000 refugees.<\/p>\n

As long as Assad remains in Damascus, efforts of the Syrian Kurds to achieve autonomy, seen as a threat by Ankara, will gain momentum. The longer Assad stays in power higher the cost will be for Turkey.<\/p>\n

But don\u2019t think that Turkey\u2019s problems will ease once Assad departs. On the contrary, the problems will be more diverse, more complicated and confusing, the vast majority of which can be attributed to Turkey\u2019s faulty policies.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s begin with Turkey\u2019s Kurdish issue: Emergence of Syrian Kurds under the leadership of the PYD \u2014 seen as Syrian offshoot of the PKK \u2014 affixed regional context to Turkey\u2019s Kurdish issue. In this context Iran, Baath, Baghdad, Kurdistan regional government of Iraq and many other elements entered Turkey\u2019s Kurdish equation. A possible intervention by Turkey in this region will bring with it the risk of internationalizing the issue.<\/p>\n

If Syria\u2019s Kurdish issue is solved through peaceful means and Kurds achieve their aspiration of autonomy, Turkey will be exposed as a country with the largest Kurdish population but also a country that has given the minimum political rights to its own Kurds.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the PKK, with weapons it will acquire from the army of the Baath regime, will be even a greater threat to Turkey\u2019s security.<\/p>\n

Ankara\u2019s entry to the Syrian conflict as a party supporting the Sunni majority will cause serious problems of confidence in its relations with other minorities of that country. After every massacre and act of brutality against those minorities, there will be attempts to determine Turkey\u2019s part in it. The fact that weapons to Sunni opposition and Jihadist groups were sent via Turkey will burden Turkey with ethical and political responsibility.<\/p>\n

Turkey will also suffer headaches because of the activities of Al Nusra Front and other al-Qaeda-linked groups in Syria.<\/p>\n

And finally we might see the small Syrian Turkmen minority being designated a target of retaliation against Turkey.<\/p>\n

Since Assad\u2019s departure doesn\u2019t automatically mean stability, the problems of Turkey\u2019s Middle East trade because of the Syrian crisis will continue during the transition period.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Read more: https:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/originals\/2012\/al-monitor\/turkey-syria-muslim-brother.html#ixzz2GG6ryWIj<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Syrian children from the northern Syrian town of Ras al-Ain are pictured near the Turkish border fence as gunfire is heard between the Free Syrian Army and the armed Kurds of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) in the northern Syrian town of Ceylanpinar, Nov. 25, 2012. (photo by REUTERS\/Amr Abdallah Dalsh) By: Kadri Gursel. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":83,"featured_media":61829,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[56],"tags":[3883],"class_list":["post-61825","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-syria","tag-bashar-al-assad"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61825","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/83"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=61825"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61825\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/61829"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=61825"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=61825"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=61825"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}