{"id":49504,"date":"2012-01-10T03:52:43","date_gmt":"2012-01-10T01:52:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/?p=49504"},"modified":"2023-04-15T18:04:52","modified_gmt":"2023-04-15T15:04:52","slug":"turkey-israel-iran-winners-and-losers-from-arab-spring","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/2012\/01\/10\/turkey-israel-iran-winners-and-losers-from-arab-spring\/","title":{"rendered":"Turkey, Israel, Iran\u2014Winners and Losers from Arab Spring"},"content":{"rendered":"

News Analysis<\/h2>\n
By Gary Feuerberg
\nEpoch Times Staff Created:<\/em> January 8, 2012 Last Updated:<\/em> January 9, 2012<\/div>\n
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Related articles: World \u00bb Middle East<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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An Egyptian demonstrator waves Egyptian and Palestinian flags at Cairo’s Tahrir Square on May 13, 2011. There is strong pro-Palestinian sentiment among the Arab populace, which will make it harder for post-Arab Spring leaders to advocate peace with Israel. (Khaled Desouki \/AFP\/Getty Images)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

WASHINGTON\u2014Arab Spring upheavals have not only affected the balance of power in countries where they have occurred, they have also had a strong ripple effect, shaking up the strategic outlook of the region\u2019s dominant countries: Israel, Turkey, and Iran.<\/p>\n

Superficially, the Arab upheavals\u2014with dictators being overthrown and popular cries for democracy\u2014may look desirable to the liberal democratic governments of Israel and Turkey, and a blight for Iran\u2014but a closer look reveals that the regional winners and losers may not be so obvious.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Israel<\/strong><\/h2>\n

For Israel, the Arab awakenings has created a \u201cdramatic transformation\u201d in the structure of the Middle East peace process, said Robert Malley, program director for Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group (ICG), and a former special assistant to President Bill Clinton for Arab-Israeli Affairs (1998\u20132001).<\/p>\n

Malley spoke at a Middle East Policy Council (MEPC) sponsored conference on Capitol Hill on Jan. 5 titled, Israel, Turkey & Iran in the Changing Arab World.<\/p>\n

Malley said, the Palestinian cause weighs more heavily now due to popular sentiments in the Arab world that Arab leaders ignore at their peril.<\/p>\n

Israel\u2019s strategic outlook has historically been one of \u201cpre-empting threats,\u201d said Malley, which has required having a good sense of what the threats are. That approach, however, is harder to apply after the Arab upheavals when the unpredictable and uncertainty of the masses enters the equation. It\u2019s impossible to know what the threat will be in a year\u2019s time, he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s one thing for Egypt to develop a certain strategic posture when you have President Mubarak or Gen. Tantawi in power. It\u2019s very different if you have the Muslim Brotherhood,\u201d said Malley.<\/p>\n

Israel also has to deal with the reality that public opinion in the Arab countries has a greater role to play than it did before. The question of Palestine resonates more deeply today, Malley said. Any Arab political leader now will not enhance his popularity by reaching out to Israel or by advocating peace with Israel, he said.<\/p>\n

The \u201cpeace process\u201d between Israel and Palestinians will have to be \u201creinvented,\u201d he said. The days of strong moderate Arab leaders and a strong U.S. role are called into question, said Malley.<\/p>\n

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Karim Sadjadpour, at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that Iran\u2019s Supreme Leader Khamenei is increasingly centralizing his control of the country while President Ahmadinejad has been in a power struggle with him. Listening is professor Omer Taspinar, at Brookings, who spoke in what sense Turkey can be a model country for the Middle East. Both gentlemen spoke at the Middle East Policy Council\u2019s Capitol Hill Conference, Jan. 5, 2012. (Gary Feuerberg\/ Epoch Times)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\u201cWho are the Arab leaders that are going to stand with [Palestinian President Mahmud] Abbas in the event of a peace treaty?\u201d Malley asked rhetorically.<\/p>\n

Malley said that he sees Israel adopting a \u201chunker down mentality,\u201d waiting and acting very cautiously. Changes in the Arab countries are viewed in Israel as bad news with the exception of Syria. If Israel does anything bold, it would be against Iran and its nuclear program, he said.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Iran<\/strong><\/h2>\n

In recent years, Iran has moved in a different direction from Egypt and other Middle East countries, beginning with its repression of democratic sentiments in 2009. In Iran, \u201cpower and influence are increasingly driven by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei,\u201d says Karim Sadjadpour, who in the past has interviewed dozens of senior Iranian officials and hundreds of Iranian intellectuals, clerics, among others for ICG.<\/p>\n

The real power behind Iran\u2019s nuclear program and Iran\u2019s role in the Middle East is decided by Khamenei and the sector of Revolutionary Guards with access to him. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is no longer content to sit on the sidelines, and a power battle has ensued between him and the supreme leader, said Sadjadpour at the MEPC conference.<\/p>\n

While suppressing democracy at home, Iran in the past has welcomed the representative government movement in the Middle East, as it has served Iran\u2019s own interests well. Elections in Lebanon led to Hezbollah; in Palestine, Hamas won; and in Iraq, Shi\u2019ite interests became dominate. So, Iran assumes, \u201cThe average citizen has much more in common with Tehran\u2019s world view than the West view,\u201d said Sadjadpour.<\/p>\n

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Robert Malley says the political upheavals in the Arab world have introduced more uncertainty and unpredictability resulting in a more cautious Israel. Dr. Malley is director at the International Crisis Group. Prior to joining ICG, Dr. Malley served as special assistant to President Clinton for Arab-Israeli Affairs. He spoke at the Middle East Policy Council\u2019s Capitol Hill Conference, Jan. 5, 2012 (Gary Feuerberg\/ Epoch Times)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

But the actual result has been mixed. Sadjadpour said Iran did not anticipate the Syria uprising. Syria is Iran\u2019s \u201conly consistent ally,\u201d he said. \u201cThe loss of the al-Assad regime would be a tremendous blow to Tehran.\u201d<\/p>\n

There are already reports that Iran has threatened to withhold funding if Hamas relocates its headquarters from Damascus to Doha, Qatar, revealed Sadjadpour.<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s patronage of Lebanon-based Hezbollah\u2014\u201cthe crown jewel of the Iranian revolution\u201d\u2014is going to be very difficult to sustain in the same way, he said. Hezbollah was created with financial backing from Iran in the early 1980s after Israel invaded Lebanon.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Turkey<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Turkey is often touted as a role model for the Middle East, and one could argue that Turkey was the big winner of the Arab Spring. It is simultaneously modern, Islamic, and democratic. No one has done that before, says Sadjadpour. It owes its current form to the Islamist-based Justice and Development Party (AKP), which was victorious in the election of 2002.<\/p>\n

Despite the Islamic origins of the AKP, Turkey\u2019s government is secular. When Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan visited Egypt in recent months and argued that Egypt should be a secular country, the position \u201cshocked the Muslim Brotherhood,\u201d said professor Omer Taspinar, speaking at the MEPC conference. Taspinar teaches at the U.S. National War College, and is director of the Turkey Project at the Brookings Institution.<\/p>\n

According to Malley, the main reason for Turkey\u2019s ascension in the region is that it \u201cspeaks loudly for the Palestine cause,\u201d which is popular among the Arab masses. For example, Erdogan gained popularity points when he walked out of a conference in Davos, Switzerland, in 2009 to protest Israeli President Shimon Peres\u2019s speech defending Israel\u2019s Gaza offensive.<\/p>\n

Although Turkey is a member of NATO, and until the Gaza flotilla fallout had military ties with Israel, in the past it has also tried to maintain good relations with its neighbors Iran and Syria. Turkey\u2019s Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu proclaimed the \u201czero problem with neighbors\u201d policy, which aimed to establish a zone of peace and tranquility between neighbors.<\/p>\n

Its nonaligned policy led Turkey, joined by Brazil, to vote against new sanctions on Iran in June 2010. Taspinar says that Turkey does not want to give the impression it is following Western foreign policy. Rather, it states that it wants \u201cregional solutions to regional problems,\u201d said Taspinar.<\/p>\n

However, the sudden breakdown in Turkey\u2019s relations with Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Israel has forced Turkey to abandon the \u201cno problems\u201d doctrine, said Taspinar. Turkey\u2019s relationship with Iran soured when Turkey, agreed last year to host radars as part of NATO\u2019s missile defense.<\/p>\n

Taspinar said one positive remainder of the Turkish approach is its avoidance of the Sunni-Shi\u2019ite divide. Turkey as a secular state disagrees with Saudi Arabia and Iran\u2019s sectarian agendas, and is a voice for peace on this divide that is playing out violently in Iraq and Syria.<\/p>\n

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Related Articles<\/h2>\n
    \n
  • 2011 & Beyond: Arab Spring Continued<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

    All three speakers agreed that post-Mubarak Egypt will recover its top leadership role in the Arab world. Even in its current chaotic state, Egypt has had more influence than Turkey on the Palestinian question. Egypt brokered the prisoner exchange involving Israeli captive Gilad Shalit, after Turkey had tried. The reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah was hammered out in Cairo, although Turkey had tried very hard, Taspinar said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    News Analysis By Gary Feuerberg Epoch Times Staff Created: January 8, 2012 Last Updated: January 9, 2012 Related articles: World \u00bb Middle East An Egyptian demonstrator waves Egyptian and Palestinian flags at Cairo’s Tahrir Square on May 13, 2011. There is strong pro-Palestinian sentiment among the Arab populace, which will make it harder for post-Arab […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":83,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[62,148,2938],"tags":[5983],"class_list":["post-49504","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-iran_","category-israel","category-middle-east-middle-east-regions","tag-arab-spring"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49504","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/83"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49504"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49504\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49504"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49504"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49504"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}