{"id":43914,"date":"2011-09-17T03:24:27","date_gmt":"2011-09-17T00:24:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.turkishforum.com.tr\/en\/content\/?p=43914"},"modified":"2014-01-06T15:14:57","modified_gmt":"2014-01-06T13:14:57","slug":"iran-turkey-dueling-demagogues","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/2011\/09\/17\/iran-turkey-dueling-demagogues\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran-Turkey: dueling demagogues"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"Benny Avni<\/strong><\/p>\n

Here\u2019s a tip for Lee Bollinger, the Columbia University president: If you want to hobnob with the most outrageous guest in town for next week\u2019s UN extravaganza, get hip and call the Turkish mission — because Iran\u2019s Mahmoud Ahmedinejad may no longer be your man. The up-and-comer is Turkey\u2019s prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.<\/strong><\/p>\n

They\u2019re rivals in another important sense: Both non-Arab Mideasterners dream of resurrecting glorious empires of yore; both are using hostility to Israel to win regional favor — and both are jockeying for position in Syria, now the region\u2019s weakest link.<\/p>\n

Democratically elected and popular, since his pro-market policies have turned Turkey into an economic powerhouse — Erdogan is eclipsing Ahmadinejad — reviled for mismanagement, economic decline and cruel oppression. (But beware the declining power: Mideasterners often turn to adventurism when they\u2019re pressured at home — and Iran is closing in on an atomic-missile capability.)<\/p>\n

Erdogan this week launched a triumphant Mideast tour, preaching to adoring crowds in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya about the evils of Israel and the West. He also threatened a naval confrontation with Israel, scaring American, European and NATO <\/span>officials, all of whom are begging Ankara to chill out a bit.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the attention-starved Ahmadinejad made a grand \u201cconcession\u201d to America, gallantly announcing that he\u2019d free the two US hostages (Shane Bauer and Josh Fattal) long held on flimsy espionage charges — then had to lock horns with Tehran\u2019s judiciary, which no longer fears his authority, in an effort to make good on his promise.<\/p>\n

But the Iran-Turkey power game spreads far beyond such gestures. The most important arena of confrontation is Syria.<\/p>\n

Iran has long propped up President Bashar al-Assad, but has started to distance itself from his rule. Tehran needs Syria too much — especially as a conduit to Hezbollah, its proxy army in Lebanon. Relying solely on the Assads is too risky a bet, so the mullahs are preparing for the morning after.<\/p>\n

As Tehran watcher Meir Javedanfar wrote this week, if Assad falls and a civil war ensues — the now-ruling minority Allawites against the majority Sunnis — \u201cIran is extremely unlikely to play the part of spectator.\u201d<\/p>\n

Neither is Turkey. Its southern border is bustling with activity as businessmen, troops and opportunity seekers prepare for the day Syria becomes a Turkish protectorate.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Yet Erdogan after some tough recent statements against Assad, his former ally, is zigzagging again.<\/p>\n

On his first appearance in Cairo this week, Erdogan all but ignored the Syria situation. Even worse, anti-regime Syrian activists accuse Ankara of handing over former Syrian Army Lt. Col. Hussein al-Harmoush to Damascus.<\/p>\n

Harmoush fled Syria months ago and was making tough anti-regime statements from the relative safety of a Turk-protected refugee camp near Syria\u2019s border. Yesterday, Syria announced his detention in Damascus. (Ankara denies sending Harmoush, or any Syrian, back \u201cagainst their will.\u201d)<\/p>\n

Is Turkey with Assad or against him? Is it backing the pro-democracy rebels or just the Islamists? The answer is that — like Tehran — Ankara\u2019s playing all sides against the middle.<\/p>\n

Incidentally, so does Saudi Arabia: Riyadh is hoping to use its petrodollars to prop up a powerful political ally in post-Assad Syria. But money isn\u2019t enough. In Syria, as in the rest of the Arab Mideast, the dominant powers are once more non-Arabs: The Persians and the Turks.<\/p>\n

Conspicuously missing from this high-stakes Syrian poker table are America and the Europeans — still hiding behind feckless diplomacy and meaningless moralistic statements.<\/p>\n

To his great credit, Robert Ford, the US ambassador to Syria, is constantly siding with pro-democracy forces. But that won\u2019t buy us a seat at a table where everyone else antes up with real resources.<\/p>\n

And the Mideast region is too volatile to leave to the graces of the increasingly dangerous Turks and Persians.<\/p>\n

beavni@gmail.com<\/p>\n

www.nypost.com<\/span>,\u00a0September 16, 2011<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Benny Avni Here\u2019s a tip for Lee Bollinger, the Columbia University president: If you want to hobnob with the most outrageous guest in town for next week\u2019s UN extravaganza, get hip and call the Turkish mission — because Iran\u2019s Mahmoud Ahmedinejad may no longer be your man. The up-and-comer is Turkey\u2019s prime minister, Recep Tayyip […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":83,"featured_media":43915,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[62,148,192,56,89],"tags":[2340,1018],"class_list":["post-43914","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-iran_","category-israel","category-saudi-arabia","category-syria","category-turkey","tag-ahmadinejad","tag-recep-tayyip-erdogan"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43914","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/83"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43914"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43914\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/43915"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43914"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43914"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43914"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}