Turkey: Sizing Up the Impact of Sex on Politics<\/p>\n
by Alexander Christie-Miller<\/p>\n
As Turkey\u2019s June 12 parliamentary elections draw nearer, public attention is focusing on how a set of explicit videos involving politicians from Turkey\u2019s third largest political party, the ultranationalist MHP, are influencing voting preferences.<\/p>\n
A group claiming to be disaffected Nationalist Action Party (MHP) activists began posting the black-and-white hidden-camera footage of the tawdry encounters on the Internet a month ago. Apparently timed to undermine voter support for the opposition MHP, the tapes, which purport to feature a 16-year-old girl and a Russian prostitute, have prompted the resignation of 10 senior MHP members.<\/p>\n
\u201cI felt like a trainee boxer getting punched in the face again and again; that\u2019s how shocked I was,\u201d said Ibrahim Cakir, a 60-year-old Istanbul taxi driver and former MHP activist, referring to the sex tapes. \u201cThese things are not part of what we are.\u201d<\/p>\n
Cakir, who first became a MHP supporter while taking part in Turkey\u2019s 1974 invasion of Cyprus, is one of a growing number of erstwhile party loyalists who has transferred allegiance to the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP). He claimed that about 60 of his friends have done the same in the past two months.<\/p>\n
The tapes are spurring debate about the MHP\u2019s electoral prospects. In the 2007 elections, the party gained 14.3 percent of the vote, but it has struggled since then to maintain that level of support. Now, there is speculation that the party might not clear the 10-percent threshold for entrance into parliament. If that happened, the MHP\u2019s seats in parliament would be redistributed, a development likely to benefit the AKP. It could even give the AKP a super majority in the legislature, allowing it to implement a plan to alter Turkey\u2019s constitution.<\/p>\n
The fall-off in support may be linked to more than just the sex tapes. Cakir, who first left the party in 2009, believes that the final straw for many people who have gone over to the AKP was the MHP\u2019s selection of a suspect in an ongoing military coup-plot investigation as a candidate for parliament. \u201cThe [sex tape] scandal has just solidified their decision,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n
Polling before and after the release of the tapes suggests MHP support now hovers at between 10 percent and 12 percent of voting-age adults. In one survey for the Ak\u015fam newspaper released on May 31, only 7 percent of MHP supporters among 2,315 respondents said the revelations had shaken their trust in the party.<\/p>\n
Some analysts suggest that Turkey\u2019s polarized political scene, coupled with suspicions over the motives behind the smear campaign, may dull the tapes\u2019 impact. Many MHP supporters, including the leadership, assert the AKP — the scandal\u2019s most obvious political beneficiary \u2013 is responsible for the release of the recordings. \u201cThis is a very conspiracy-oriented society,\u201d said Mehmet Arisan, a specialist in political psychology at Istanbul Technical University. \u201cIf people have a strong belief in some political movement or leader, it\u2019s difficult to make them see through that.\u201d<\/p>\n
Moreover, despite entrenched, conservative attitudes on sexual and marital issues, Turks often apply different standards to politics than they do to their own communities, Arisan believes. \u201cIn some parts of the community, there is a lynching mindset,\u201d said Arisan. Indeed, Turkey\u2019s government tried to criminalize adultery in 2004, and a survey last year by the Pew Research Centre suggested that 16 percent of Turkish Muslims favored stoning as a punishment for adulterers.<\/p>\n
\u201cBut when it\u2019s mixed with politics, the reaction can be different,\u201d Arisan added. \u201cEveryone knows that if there is an expos\u00e9 of an MHP deputy, there can easily be one of an AKP deputy, too. Some people can see the MHP candidates as victimized because they know that this is the result of some political competition.\u201d<\/p>\n
In light of the notorious unreliability of Turkish opinion polls, most observers remain cautious over assessing the tapes\u2019 impact.<\/p>\n
Cengiz Aktar, a political scientist at Istanbul\u2019s Bahcesehir University, believes that if the perception that the AKP is resorting to dirty tricks gains traction, it could end up helping the MHP mobilize its urban base. The PR damage could be more difficult to repair among the party\u2019s rural supporters, who tend to be more conservative, Aktar added. \u201cBut at the end of the day, there won\u2019t be a dramatic impact because, in the meantime, there are lots of other things happening,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
For some observers, the party\u2019s recent troubles are merely symptomatic of a long decline. \u201cRegardless of the tapes, the MHP has lost its Turkish nationalist vote to the Islamist right,\u201d said Oray Egin, a columnist for the Ak\u015fam newspaper.<\/p>\n
Editor’s note:<\/p>\n
Alexander Christie-Miller is a freelance journalist based in Istanbul.<\/p>\n
via Turkey: Sizing Up the Impact of Sex on Politics | EurasiaNet.org.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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