Stratfor.com
\nAugust 25, 2008<\/p>\n
The Russians still have not completed withdrawal
\nfrom Georgia. It is clear that, at least for the
\ntime being, the Russians intend to use the clause
\nin the cease-fire agreement that allows them
\nunspecified rights to protect their security to
\nmaintain troops in some parts of Georgia. Moscow
\nobviously wants to demonstrate to the Georgians
\nthat Russia moves at its own discretion, not at
\nthe West\u2019s. A train carrying fuel was blown up
\noutside of Gori, with the Georgians claiming that
\nthe Russians have planted mines. Whether the
\nclaim is true or not, the Russians are trying to
\nsend a simple message: We are your best friends
\nand worst enemies. The emphasis for the moment is on the latter.<\/p>\n
It is essential for the Russians to demonstrate
\nthat they are not intimidated by the West in any
\nway. The audience for this is the other former
\nSoviet republics, but also the Georgian public.
\nIt is becoming clear that the Russians are intent
\non seeing Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili
\nremoved from office. Moscow is betting that as
\nthe crisis dies down and Russian troops remain in
\nGeorgia, the Georgians will develop a feeling of
\nisolation and turn on Saakashvili for leading
\nthem into a disaster. If that doesn\u2019t work, and
\nhe remains president, then the Russians have
\nforward positions in Georgia. Either way, full
\nwithdrawal does not make sense for them, when the
\nonly force against them is Western public
\nopinion. That alone will make the Russians more intractable.<\/p>\n
It is interesting, therefore, that a U.S. warship
\ndelivered humanitarian supplies to the Georgians.
\nThe ship did not use the port of Poti, which the
\nRussians have effectively blocked, but Batumi, to
\nthe south. That the ship was a destroyer is
\nimportant. It demonstrates that the Americans
\nhave a force available that is inherently
\nsuperior to anything the Russians have: the U.S.
\nNavy. A Navy deployment in the Black Sea could
\nwell be an effective counter, threatening Russian sea lanes.<\/p>\n
While it was a warship, however, it was only a
\ndestroyer \u00ad so it is a gesture, but not a threat.
\nBut there are rumors of other warships readying
\nto transit into the Black Sea. This raises an
\nimportant issue: Turkey. Turkey borders Georgia
\nbut has very carefully stayed out of the
\nconflict. Any ships that pass through Turkish
\nstraits do so under Turkish supervision guided by
\nthe Montreux Convention, an old agreement
\nrestricting the movement of warships through the
\nstraits \u00ad which the Russians in particular have
\nignored in moving ships into the Mediterranean.
\nBut the United States has a particular problem in
\nmoving through the Bosporus. Whatever the
\nConvention says or precedent is, the United
\nStates can\u2019t afford to alienate Turkey \u00ad not if
\nthere is a crisis in the Caucasus.<\/p>\n
Each potential American move has a complication
\nattached. However, at this moment, the decision
\nas to what to do is in the hands of the United
\nStates. The strategic question is whether it has
\nthe appetite for a naval deployment in the Black
\nSea at this historical moment. After that is
\nanswered, Washington needs to address the Turkish
\nposition. And after a U.S. squadron deploys in
\nthe Black Sea, the question will be what Russia,
\na land power, will do in response. The Europeans
\nare irrelevant to the equation, even if they do
\nhold a summit as the French want. They can do
\nnothing unless the United States decides to act,
\nand they can\u2019t stop the United States if it does decide to go.<\/p>\n
The focus now is on the Americans. They can let
\nthe Russo-Georgian war slide into history and
\ndeal with Russia later on, or they can act. What
\nWashington will decide to do is the question the
\narrival of the U.S.S. McFaul in Georgia posed for the Russians.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Stratfor.com August 25, 2008 The Russians still have not completed withdrawal from Georgia. It is clear that, at least for the time being, the Russians intend to use the clause in the cease-fire agreement that allows them unspecified rights to protect their security to maintain troops in some parts of Georgia. Moscow obviously wants to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":83,"featured_media":38128,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[209,42,89,34],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3031","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-georgia-caucasus","category-russia","category-turkey","category-usa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3031","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/83"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3031"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3031\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/38128"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3031"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3031"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3031"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}