by\u00a0AYDO\u011eAN VATANDA\u015e<\/p>\n
Revelations by WikiLeaks received enormous coverage last week in the media around the globe. But in some parts of the world, like Turkey for instance, where these revelations have some of the greatest potential to sow controversy, they have caused an influential ripple.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/12\/071210_wikie.jpg\")
The documents revealed by WikiLeaks also caused a great controversy in Arab countries as well. Some of these \u201csecret\u201d messages include various communications from various Arab heads of state, allegedly including the Saudi king himself, putting pressure on America to strike against Iran and put an end to its nuclear program.<\/p>\n
I was not surprised when I noticed these allegations in the documents because it was only several weeks ago when I read the same allegation in an Atlantic Monthly piece written by a very influential journalist in US pro-Israeli circles who also has access to Israel\u2019s corridors of power.<\/p>\n
In his extremely shocking article, titled \u201cThe point of no return,\u201d Jeffrey Goldberg wrote that he was told by Israeli intelligence leaders that Arabs and Iranians never speak. The Arabs, he wrote, secretly want Israel or the US to bomb Iran\u2019s nuclear facilities out of fear that the acquisition of nuclear weapons would embolden their Persian rivals: \u201cSeveral Arab leaders have suggested that America\u2019s standing in the Middle East depends on its willingness to confront Iran. They argue self-interestedly that an aerial attack on a handful of Iranian facilities would not be as complicated or as messy as, say, invading Iraq. \u2018This is not a discussion about the invasion of Iran,\u2019 one Arab foreign minister told me. \u201cWe are hoping for the pinpoint striking of several dangerous facilities. America could do this very easily.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n
What we have to remember here is that when it came to supporting a prospective invasion of Iraq back in 2002, Goldberg provided effective lobbying in liberal American circles, especially through his reports of so called \u201cevidence\u201d linking Saddam Hussein and al-Qaeda.<\/p>\n
The question here is how did the Israeli intelligence community know that Arab leaders secretly support a military strike on Iran? Did the Israelis know about the American secret documents revealed by WikiLeaks? Furthermore, did they reveal that information to Goldberg on purpose?<\/p>\n
Goldberg also wrote that Israeli generals said to him that lobbying Barack Obama to attack Iran would be a better idea!<\/p>\n
\u201cIn my conversations with former Israeli air-force generals and strategists, the prevalent tone was cautious. Many people I interviewed were ready, on condition of anonymity, to say why an attack on Iran\u2019s nuclear sites would be difficult for Israel. And some Israeli generals, like their American colleagues, questioned the very idea of an attack. \u201cOur time would be better spent lobbying Barack Obama to do this, rather than trying this ourselves,\u201d one general told me. \u2018We are very good at this kind of operation, but it is a big stretch for us. The Americans can do this with a minimum of difficulty, by comparison. This is too big for us.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n
But if the Americans refuse to attack Iran and Israeli defense forces are ordered to start a military strike on Iran, how would this strike be designated?<\/p>\n
\u201cThe first is that Israel would get only one try. Israeli planes would fly low over Saudi Arabia, bomb their targets in Iran and return to Israel by flying again over Saudi territory, possibly even landing in the Saudi desert for refueling — perhaps, if speculation rife in intelligence circles is to be believed, with secret Saudi cooperation. These planes would have to return home quickly, in part because Israeli intelligence believes that Iran would immediately order Hezbollah to fire rockets at Israeli cities, and Israeli air-force resources would be needed to hunt Hezbollah rocket teams.\u201d<\/p>\n
I just noticed that WikiLeaks had a document that used the same language in the heading as Goldberg\u2019s article \u201cThe point of no return.\u201d<\/p>\n
It was in cablegate document 05TELAVIV1593, a cable from 2005 from the US Embassy in Tel Aviv:<\/p>\n
\u201cIsrael sees Iran as the primary threat to its security and sees the enrichment cycle as the \u2018point of no return\u2019 for Tehran\u2019s nuclear weapons program.\u201d<\/p>\n
Do you think that it was just a coincidence?<\/p>\n
Well, actually it\u2019s a very commonly used clich\u00e9. I wouldn\u2019t read too much into that. But what we are seeing is that the cables, read carefully, do show that the Israelis are constantly hyping \u201cpoints of no return\u201d and deadlines.<\/p>\n
Based on my conversations with Israeli decision-makers, this period of forbearance, in which Netanyahu is waiting to see if the West\u2019s nonmilitary methods can stop Iran, will come to an end this month. Robert Gates, the US secretary of defense, said in June at a meeting of NATO defense ministers that most intelligence estimates predict that Iran is one to three years away from building a nuclear weapon. \u201cIn Israel, we heard this as nine months from June — in other words, March 2011,\u201d one Israeli policymaker told me. \u201cIf we assume that nothing changes in these estimates, this means that we will have to begin thinking about our next step at the turn of the year.\u201d<\/p>\n
What\u2019s funny about the cable I mentioned above is that this was the old \u201cred line,\u201d when Iran had succeeded in enriching uranium. It would be too late. And they achieved that in early 2006. As we see in Goldberg\u2019s article, there was a new \u201cred line\u201d now, and it is December.<\/p>\n
But what if President Obama can\u2019t be convinced for a military strike on Iran?<\/p>\n
The last paragraph of the Goldberg\u2019s piece is extremely thought provoking for President Obama, I guess:<\/p>\n
\u2018\u201cShortly after John F. Kennedy was elected president, Ben-Gurion met him at the Waldorf-Astoria\u2019 in New York, [Shimon] Peres told me. After the meeting, Kennedy accompanied Ben-Gurion to the elevator and said, \u2018Mr. Prime Minister, I want to tell you, I was elected because of your people, so what can I do for you in return?\u2019 Ben-Gurion was insulted by the question. He said, \u2018What you can do is be a great president of the United States. You must understand that to have a great president of the United States is a great event.\u2019<\/p>\n
\u201cPeres went on to explain what he saw as Israel\u2019s true interest. \u2018We don\u2019t want to win over the president,\u2019 he said. \u2018We want the president to win.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n
Today\u2019s Zaman<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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