{"id":19885,"date":"2010-06-19T19:13:03","date_gmt":"2010-06-19T16:13:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.turkishforum.com.tr\/en\/content\/?p=19885"},"modified":"2014-01-05T19:46:28","modified_gmt":"2014-01-05T17:46:28","slug":"big-powers-may-not-save-kyrgyzstan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/2010\/06\/19\/big-powers-may-not-save-kyrgyzstan\/","title":{"rendered":"Big Powers May Not Save Kyrgyzstan"},"content":{"rendered":"<h6>If Kyrgyz-style violence should radiate across borders in Central Asia,   the result could be a rise in Islamic militancy that would directly   threaten Russia and the United States.<\/h6>\n<h6><\/h6>\n<h6>Diplomatic Memo<\/h6>\n<h1>Value  to Big Powers May Not Save Kyrgyzstan<\/h1>\n<div><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/graphics8.nytimes.com\/images\/2010\/06\/19\/world\/MEMO\/MEMO-articleLarge.jpg\" border=\"0\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"315\" \/><\/p>\n<div>Bryan Denton for The New York Times<\/div>\n<p>Roza Otunbayeva, the head of the provisional  government in Kyrgyzstan, landing by helicopter in the southern city of  Osh on Friday, after days of ethnic fighting there.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><!--[if lt IE 8]> <mce:script type=\"text\/javascript\"><!              var wImage = $('wideImage').getElementsByTagName(\"img\")[0].getAttribute('src');             $('wideImage').getElementsByTagName(\"img\")[0].setAttribute('src',\"http:\/\/graphics8.nytimes.com\/images\/global\/backgrounds\/transparentBG.gif\");             var filter = \"progId:DXImageTransform.Microsoft.AlphaImageLoader(src='\"+wImage+\"', sizingMethod='scale' )\";             $('wideImage').getElementsByTagName(\"img\")[0].style.filter = filter;              \/\/ --> <!--[endif]--><\/p>\n<h6>By ELLEN BARRY<\/h6>\n<h6>Published: June 18, 2010<\/h6>\n<p>MOSCOW \u2014 A year and a half ago, the world\u2019s great powers were fighting  like polecats over Kyrgyzstan,  a landlocked stretch of mountains in the heart of Central Asia.<\/p>\n<div><!--forceinline--><\/p>\n<div>\n<h3>Related<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<h6><span class=\"removed_link\" title=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2010\/06\/19\/world\/asia\/19kyrgyz.html?ref=asia\"> Some Refugees Begin Returning to Kyrgyzstan<\/span> (June 19, 2010)<\/h6>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<h6>Times Topic: Kyrgyzstan<\/h6>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!--brightcove player begins --><\/p>\n<div><!--NYT video player embed code *starts here* - Build# 2008.09.17 --> <script src=\"http:\/\/graphics8.nytimes.com\/bcvideo\/1.0\/iframe\/embed.js\" type=\"text\/javascript\"><\/script> <script type=\"text\/javascript\">\/\/ <![CDATA[\n\t\t\tNYT_VideoPlayerStart( {\n\t\t\t   playerType  : \"article\",\n\t\t\t   videoId     : \"1247468078582\"\n\t\t\t} );\n\/\/ ]]><\/script> <!--NYT video player embed code *ends here* --><\/div>\n<p><!--brightcove player ends -->The United States was ferociously holding on to the Manas Air Base, a transit hub considered  crucial to NATO efforts in Afghanistan. <span class=\"removed_link\" title=\"http:\/\/topics.nytimes.com\/top\/news\/international\/countriesandterritories\/russiaandtheformersovietunion\/index.html?inline=nyt-geo\">Russia<\/span> was so jealous of its traditional  dominance in the region that it promised the Kyrgyz president $2.15  billion in aid the day he announced he was closing Manas. With the  bidding war that followed, Kyrgyzstan could be forgiven for seeing  itself as a global player.<\/p>\n<p>And yet for the past week, as spasms of violence threatened to break  Kyrgyzstan apart, its citizens saw their hopes for an international  intervention flicker and die. With each day it has become clearer that  none of Kyrgyzstan\u2019s powerful allies \u2014 <span class=\"removed_link\" title=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2010\/06\/15\/world\/asia\/15kyrgyz.html\">most pointedly, its former  overlords in Moscow<\/span> \u2014 were prepared to get involved in a quagmire.<\/p>\n<p>Russia did send in several hundred paratroopers, but only to defend its  air base at Kant. For the most part, the powers have evacuated their  citizens, apparently content to wait for the conflict to burn itself  out.<\/p>\n<p>The calculus was a pragmatic one, made \u201cwithout the smallest thought to  the moral side of the question,\u201d said Aleksei V. Vlasov, an expert in  the politics of post-Soviet countries at Moscow State University.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe use the phrase \u2018collective responsibility,\u2019 but in fact this is a  case of collective irresponsibility,\u201d he added. \u201cWhile they were  fighting about whatever \u2014 about bases, about Afghanistan \u2014 they forgot  that in the south of Kyrgyzstan there was extreme danger. The city was  flammable. All they needed to do was throw a match on it.\u201d He referred  to the city of Osh, which suffered days of ethnic rioting.<\/p>\n<p>Kyrgyzstan might have unraveled anyway, but competition between Moscow  and Washington certainly sped the process.<\/p>\n<p>To lock in its claim on the base after the threat of expulsion, the  United States offered President <span class=\"removed_link\" title=\"http:\/\/topics.nytimes.com\/top\/reference\/timestopics\/people\/b\/kurmanbek_s_bakiyev\/index.html?inline=nyt-per\">Kurmanbek  S. Bakiyev<\/span> $110 million to back out of his agreement with Russia,  which had already paid him $450 million. Congratulating itself on its  victory, Washington raised the stakes by announcing the construction of  several military training facilities in Kyrgyzstan, including one in the  south, which further irritated Moscow.<\/p>\n<p>This spring, the Kremlin won back its lost ground, employing a range of  soft-power tactics to undermine Mr. Bakiyev\u2019s government. Mr. Bakiyev  was ousted by a coalition of opposition leaders in April, and conditions  in Kyrgyzstan\u2019s south \u2014 still loyal to the old government \u2014 hurtled  toward disaster.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cLet\u2019s be honest, Kyrgyzstan is turning into a collapsing state, or at  least part of it is, and what was partially responsible is this  geopolitical tug of war we had,\u201d said Alexander A. Cooley, who included  Manas in a recent book about the politics of military bases. \u201cIn our  attempts to secure these levers of influence and support the governing  regime, we destabilized these state institutions. We are part of that  dynamic.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Last week, as pillars of smoke rose off Osh and Jalal-Abad, citizens  begged for third-party peacekeepers to replace local forces <span class=\"removed_link\" title=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2010\/06\/17\/world\/asia\/17kyrgyz.html\">they suspected of having taken part in the  violence<\/span>.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"removed_link\" title=\"http:\/\/topics.nytimes.com\/top\/reference\/timestopics\/people\/o\/roza_otunbayeva\/index.html?inline=nyt-per\">Roza  Otunbayeva<\/span>, the head of Kyrgyzstan\u2019s interim government, asked  Moscow for peacekeepers, and when that request was denied, for troops to  protect strategic sites like power plants and reservoirs. She asked  Washington to contribute armored vehicles from the base at Manas, which  she said would be used to transport the dead and wounded, she told the  Russian newspaper Kommersant.<\/p>\n<p>So far, Moscow and Washington have responded mostly with humanitarian  aid pledges \u2014 late on Friday, Russia\u2019s Defense Ministry said that Ms.  Otunbayeva\u2019s  request was still under consideration.<\/p>\n<p>The United States, overextended in Afghanistan and Iraq, has neither the  appetite nor the motivation for a new commitment. Russia, the more  obvious player, sees the risks of a deployment outweighing the benefits.  Russian troops would enter hostile territory in south Kyrgyzstan, where  Mr. Bakiyev\u2019s supporters blame Moscow for his overthrow, and Uzbekistan  could also revolt against a Russian presence.<\/p>\n<p>Mr. Vlasov, of Moscow State University, said: \u201cWho are we separating?  Uzbeks from Kyrgyz? Krygyz from Kyrgyz? Kyrgyz from some criminal  element? There is no clearly defined cause of this conflict. It would be  comparable to the decision the Soviet Politburo made to invade  Afghanistan \u2014 badly thought through, not confirmed by the necessary  analytical work.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>If the explosion of violence was a test case for the Collective Security  Treaty Organization, an eight-year-old post-Soviet security group  dominated by Russia, it seems to have failed, its leaders unwilling to  intervene in a domestic standoff. In any case, neither the Russian  public nor the county\u2019s foreign policy establishment is pressing the  Kremlin to risk sending peacekeepers.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf you send them, you have to shoot sooner or later,\u201d said Sergei A.  Karaganov, a prominent political scientist in Moscow. \u201cThen you are not a  peacekeeper, but something else.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Though it seems that the worst of the violence has passed, great  challenges remain. Beyond the immediate humanitarian crisis is an  unstable state at the heart of a dangerous region. The Ferghana Valley,  bordering Afghanistan, is a minefield of religious fundamentalism, drug  trafficking and ethnic hatreds.<\/p>\n<p><strong>If Kyrgyz-style violence should radiate across borders in Central Asia,  the result could be a rise in Islamic militancy that would directly  threaten Russia and the United States.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The failure of international institutions last week should alarm both  capitals. President  Obama and President Dmitri  A. Medvedev of Russia began their relationship with the crisis over  the Manas base, and as they grope toward tentative collaboration in the  post-Soviet space, Kyrgyzstan has dominated their conversation.<\/p>\n<p>Now, Kyrgyzstan  needs help building a stable government that <span class=\"removed_link\" title=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2010\/06\/18\/world\/asia\/18kyrgyz.html\">knits together the north and the south<\/span>. Dmitri  V. Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, suggested that NATO  should be working with the members of the Collective Security Treaty  Organization to develop a mechanism for collective action. The next time  a Central Asian country is wobbling at the edge of a precipice, he  said, someone must be prepared to accept responsibility.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cYou can abstain from a local conflict in Kyrgyzstan,\u201d Mr. Trenin said.  \u201cYou can close your eyes to it \u2014 it\u2019s bad for your conscience \u2014 but you  can live with it. If something happens in Uzbekistan, you will not be  able to just let it burn out.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If Kyrgyz-style violence should radiate across borders in Central Asia, the result could be a rise in Islamic militancy that would directly threaten Russia and the United States. Diplomatic Memo Value to Big Powers May Not Save Kyrgyzstan Bryan Denton for The New York Times Roza Otunbayeva, the head of the provisional government in Kyrgyzstan, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":83,"featured_media":783536,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[213,89,1551],"tags":[9742,550],"class_list":["post-19885","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-kyrgyzstan","category-turkey","category-turkmenistan-central-asia-asiapacific-regions","tag-kyrgyzstan","tag-racism"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19885","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/83"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19885"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19885\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/783536"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19885"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19885"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19885"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}