{"id":18426,"date":"2010-04-13T21:48:50","date_gmt":"2010-04-13T19:48:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.turkishforum.com.tr\/en\/content\/?p=18426"},"modified":"2023-04-05T00:16:54","modified_gmt":"2023-04-04T21:16:54","slug":"turkey-leader-of-the-muslim-world","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/2010\/04\/13\/turkey-leader-of-the-muslim-world\/","title":{"rendered":"Turkey, leader of the Muslim world?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"teaser\">\n<h4>Neil Reynolds<\/h4>\n<h3><\/h3>\n<div id=\"lead-photo\">\n<p id=\"lead-caption\">Turkey, leader  of the Muslim world? AP<\/p>\n<p><script type=\"text\/javascript\">\/\/ <![CDATA[\n$('#lead-photo').hover(function() {\n$('#lead-caption').slideDown(300);\n}, function() {\n$('#lead-caption').slideUp(300);\n});\n\/\/ ]]><\/script><\/div>\n<p id=\"deck\">Political scientist George Friedman thinks so.  When the next global war breaks out, he reckons, Turkey will join Japan  to drive the U.S. out of the Middle East and the Pacific<\/p>\n<p>==============================<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"file:\/\/\/C:\/DOCUME%7E1\/KAYABU%7E1\/LOCALS%7E1\/Temp\/moz-screenshot-6.png\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p id=\"byline\"><span class=\"removed_link\" title=\"http:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/news\/opinions\/columnists\/neil-reynolds\">Neil Reynolds<\/span><\/p>\n<p id=\"source-dateline\">Published on Monday, Apr. 12, 2010 5:00AM EDT Last updated on Monday, Apr. 12, 2010 11:25PM EDT<\/p>\n<p><!-- End: fp_columnBioDefault.jsp --> <!-- \/#credit --><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>In mid-March, Turkish President  Abdullah Gul travelled to Cameroon for his country\u2019s first trade mission  to a central African nation. He got a warm welcome, The Economist  reported. \u201cTurkey must reclaim its mantle,\u201d one Islamic cleric told him,  \u201cas leader of the Islamic world.\u201d In this context, you\u2019re not talking  restoration of the Ottoman Empire \u2013 you\u2019re talking expansion. Although  the Ottoman Empire embraced Egypt, Libya, Algeria and Sudan, it never  reached central Africa. For its part, The Economist recognized the  credibility of resurrected Turkish ambitions. African countries have  bitter memories of Western colonialists and Arab slave traders, the  magazine noted. In contrast, they regard Turks as enlightened and  humane.<\/p>\n<p>Read political scientist George Friedman\u2019s <em>The Next 100  Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century <\/em>and you find yourself  pondering \u2013 almost against your will \u2013 the apparent implications of  otherwise insignificant news events. You\u2019ll be skeptical, for instance,  of Mr. Friedman\u2019s assertion that Turkey will put together an Ottoman  alliance before 2050 \u2013 with Ankara the capital of a Muslim brotherhood  of nations that stretches from Bosnia-Herzegovina to Saudi Arabia, from  Morocco to Afghanistan. Yet, Mr. Friedman presents his geopolitical  analysis with a stern and, in many ways, compelling logic.<\/p>\n<p>Why  would Turkey emerge as the leader of the Muslim world? Mr. Friedman  notes that Turkey is the richest Muslim country \u2013 the only Muslim  country with \u201ca modern economy.\u201d Turkey is the 17th-largest economy in  the world with GDP of $600-billion (U.S.). Iran is 29th (GDP:  $300-billion). Egypt is 52nd (GDP: $125-billion). Think of Turkey as a  European country and it ranks seventh. Further, Iran is too erratic and  too radical to assume regional leadership, and Pakistan is too unstable.<\/p>\n<p>When  the next global war breaks out, Mr. Friedman guesstimates, Turkey will  join Japan to drive the United States out of the Middle East and the  Pacific. He says the war is most apt to begin at 5 p.m. on Nov. 24, 2050  \u2013 American Thanksgiving \u2013 when Japan, mimicking its Second World War  success at Pearl Harbor, launches a sneak attack on U.S. space-based  communications satellites.<\/p>\n<p>As bizarre as this prediction sounds,  Mr. Friedman is no crank. Author or co-author of six books on war and  peace, he is an academic who founded Stratfor, a private intelligence  consulting company based in Austin, Tex. He holds a doctorate in  government from Cornell University. Born in Hungary, son of Holocaust  survivors, his family was a classic example of refugees who \u201cmade it\u201d in  America.<\/p>\n<p>Mr. Friedman\u2019s<em> Next 100 Years <\/em>became a New York  Times bestseller when it was published a year ago. However contrary to  conventional expectations (in asserting, for example, that China and  Russia will both falter economically in the next two decades), this book  warrants the reading time. Even where and when it\u2019s wrong (or most apt  to be wrong), Mr. Friedman\u2019s analysis is instructive.<\/p>\n<p>As with the  First World War, Mr. Friedman argues, the next global conflict will be a  war that no one wanted. Driven by demographic decline, Japan will feel  compelled to acquire a captive work force on the Chinese mainland.  Driven by the collapse of Russia, Turkey will feel compelled to bring  order to anarchic neighbouring states. The U.S. will feel obliged to  restrain these countries \u2013 by force.<\/p>\n<p>History doesn\u2019t necessarily  repeat itself, Mr. Friedman says. But it often mimics itself. Each war  creates the conditions for the next \u2013 and the perceptive observer can  rationally anticipate the rise and fall of empires. The conflict that  begins midway through the 21st century, he says, will be primarily a  space war between Japan and the U.S. and a land war between Turkey and  U.S.-allied Poland, the two countries that will seek to fill the vacuum  when Russia implodes. Because most of the war will take place in space,  there\u2019ll be few civilian casualties \u2013 and perhaps only 50,000 soldiers  killed in four years of war.<\/p>\n<p>Who wins? Mr. Friedman says the U.S.  never goes to war to achieve something, only to prevent something. For  this reason, it doesn\u2019t need to win to accomplish its objectives. This  makes an American victory in war almost axiomatic. Further, the U.S. is  so powerful that the rest of the world combined can\u2019t defeat it. Mr.  Friedman notes that no vessel sails anywhere in the world without the  implicit protection \u2013 some would say the implicit permission \u2013 of the  U.S. Navy. Like it or not, the 21st century belongs to the United  States.<\/p>\n<p>Incidentally, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan  travelled to Sarajevo last week for the country\u2019s first state visit to  Bosnia-Herzegovina \u2013 a country that thrived as a client state of the  Ottoman Empire for 400 years.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- \/.copy --><\/p>\n<div id=\"article-relations\"><!-- \/#more-columns --> <script type=\"text\/javascript\">\/\/ <![CDATA[\nvar columnistArticlesDisplay = $.cookie('gam.art.more-columns');\nif (columnistArticlesDisplay != null) {\nif (columnistArticlesDisplay == \"block\") { $('#more-columns h4.toggle').removeClass('close'); }\n$('#more-columns .relation-holder').css({'display': columnistArticlesDisplay});\n}\n$(window).unload(function() {\nvar display = $('#more-columns .relation-holder').css('display');\n$.cookie('gam.art.more-columns', '', { expires: -1 });\n$.cookie('gam.art.more-columns', display, {expires: 365, path:'\/'});\n});\n\/\/ ]]><\/script><\/p>\n<div id=\"related-articles\"><\/div>\n<p><!-- \/#related-articles --><\/p>\n<div id=\"latest-comments\">\n<h4>Latest Comments<\/h4>\n<div id=\"latest-comments-content\">\n<div id=\"latest-comments-container\">\n<table id=\"pluckCommentsTable\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"3\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td id=\"commentUser\">\n<div id=\"comment-username\">Republic  of Saturn<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td id=\"commentDivider\"><\/td>\n<td id=\"commentBody\">\n<div>4\/13\/2010 3:41:22 PM<a id=\"pluck-comment-index-0\" name=\"CommentKey:b9b099ac-092d-4745-a487-792060866ea6\"><\/a><\/div>\n<div>That Mr. Friedman even forgot his  own history. America reached the status of no 1 economic power before  20th century already, but it took them another 50 years, and quite  reluctantly, to reach the dominant status.<\/p>\n<p>And let&#8217;s talk about  German and Japan, how they jumped up and down for the &#8220;hegemony status&#8221;?  It didn&#8217;t work out for them. Americans didn&#8217;t want that status at the  first place, the danger for them now, is to overreact to maintain that  status, like Bush Jr did. It&#8217;s counter-productive.<\/p><\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>0<\/div>\n<div id=\"CommentArticle:CommentKey:b9b099ac-092d-4745-a487-792060866ea6-latest-ds\">1<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"3\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td id=\"commentUser\">\n<div id=\"comment-username\">Republic  of Saturn<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td id=\"commentDivider\"><\/td>\n<td id=\"commentBody\">\n<div>4\/13\/2010 3:10:13 PM<a id=\"pluck-comment-index-1\" name=\"CommentKey:6e7beae1-2396-402d-8768-5586cfc99cba\"><\/a><\/div>\n<div>&#8220;This will be the last attempt by a  nation to achieve global hegemony &#8211; whether it will succeed or not, is  the giant question. &#8221;<\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s way of over blowing. Chinese have  been the &#8220;global hegemony&#8221; in their sphere for many times, they know  more than anyone else what you can do and what you can&#8217;t.<\/p>\n<p>It  didn&#8217;t take long for the biggest empire builder, Mongols to collapse  into nowhere, even they defeated all their rivals. That doesn&#8217;t work.  The strength of Chinese isn&#8217;t how they can gain hegemony, but how they  cope with down turn &#8211; that&#8217;s the biggest trick.<\/p>\n<p>Until now, no one  could pass that test except Chinese. They came and gone, but Chinese  are always there.<\/p><\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>0<\/div>\n<div id=\"CommentArticle:CommentKey:6e7beae1-2396-402d-8768-5586cfc99cba-latest-ds\">0<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"3\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td id=\"commentUser\">\n<div id=\"comment-username\">bwanadon<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td id=\"commentDivider\"><\/td>\n<td id=\"commentBody\">\n<div>4\/13\/2010 12:54:57 PM<a id=\"pluck-comment-index-2\" name=\"CommentKey:6c7330ee-926c-4d15-8130-c1ce389ec75d\"><\/a><\/div>\n<div>Wow ! Can I buy whatever he&#8217;s  drinking ?!? No, no, Turkey in no way would be able to knock off the  U.S! And Japan, of all countries, has no army of international repute.  The next global war will pit the Communist Chinese against the world.  China will call in the U.S. loans, starting an economic collapse in the  West. The West has no manufacturing, and when the Chinese halt shipments  to the West, the West won&#8217;t be able to produce enough goods to  kickstart the economy. Note China will have broad trade with most of the  3rd World, so the stopped shipments, to the West, won&#8217;t hurt the  Chinese economy significantly. To be sure, there will be included in  this &#8216;push&#8217; a huge cyber-attack, coupled with the destruction of  America&#8217;s satellites, thereby crippling U.S. intelligence, as it relies  too heavily on satellites and too little on the ground intelligence.  China will push the Russians out of Siberia, to collect its oil\/gas  wealth. To create havoc in the enemy countries, China will have the  largest 5th column ever seen in the history of man. China may well wait  out the current Judeo-Christian &#8211; Muslim disharmony, letting the West  spend billions and billions of more dollars, weakening them for the  crucial push. This will be the last attempt by a nation to achieve  global hegemony &#8211; whether it will succeed or not, is the giant question.<\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>2<\/div>\n<div id=\"CommentArticle:CommentKey:6c7330ee-926c-4d15-8130-c1ce389ec75d-latest-ds\">0<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"3\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td id=\"commentUser\">\n<div id=\"comment-username\">M.Yakut<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td id=\"commentDivider\"><\/td>\n<td id=\"commentBody\">\n<div>4\/13\/2010 9:54:27 AM<a id=\"pluck-comment-index-3\" name=\"CommentKey:5ed1fe80-06af-4647-813e-0c55fc989cd1\"><\/a><\/div>\n<div>@CanucksAbro\u200bad<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Yields to  maturity on Turkish eurobonds are certainly not 15-18%. Even Turkish  bonds denominated in lire are circa 6.5% p.a. looking at government  issues.<\/p>\n<p>You are using data from 2002, which was a long-time ago,  and not long after the emerging market default of Russia in 1998, but  around the time of the Argentine debt default when EM rates spiked.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Thank   you for challenging only one of my Turkey&#8217;s economic metrics. You  might be right, might be though!<\/p>\n<p>How about the others?<\/p>\n<p>By  the why, my Turkish Lira investments in Is Bank returns me 12 % annual  interest, and if I compound it with monthly  returns I reach 14 % &#8211; 16 %  annual compounded gain.<\/p><\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>1<\/div>\n<div id=\"CommentArticle:CommentKey:5ed1fe80-06af-4647-813e-0c55fc989cd1-latest-ds\">1<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"3\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td id=\"commentUser\">\n<div id=\"comment-username\">name  already taken<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td id=\"commentDivider\"><\/td>\n<td id=\"commentBody\">\n<div>4\/13\/2010 9:15:29 AM<a id=\"pluck-comment-index-4\" name=\"CommentKey:bd7cd200-8a12-44a6-ad32-615edd4c775c\"><\/a><\/div>\n<div>Hi Mr. Mell,<\/p>\n<p>China breaking  up into several pieces is a real problem.<\/p>\n<p>I think that the answer  is to give Chinese Regions real power, and change China into a  federation of Regions:  e.g. Manchuria, Central China, Wu, Yue, Min,  Tibet, Xinkiang, Zhuang, Taiwan &#8230;.<\/p>\n<p>This was actually proposed  after the fall of the Qing Empire:  but Chiang Kai Zhek led his army  north and conquered most of China.<\/p>\n<p>(Once China is federated, then  it will be open for other countries to join this federation:  e.g.  Thailand, Singapore &#8230;.)<\/p><\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>0<\/div>\n<div id=\"CommentArticle:CommentKey:bd7cd200-8a12-44a6-ad32-615edd4c775c-latest-ds\">1<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- Latest Comments Function Call is in footer --><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><script type=\"text\/javascript\">\/\/ <![CDATA[\n$.namespace('art');\nart.allowComments = true;\nfunction joinComment(){\nvar targetOffset;\ntargetOffset = $(\"#tabs\").offset().top;\n$('html,body').animate({scrollTop: targetOffset}, 600, function() {\n$('#article-tabs').tabs(\"select\",'comments');\n});\nreturn false;\n}\nfunction showCommentsTop(){\nvar targetOffset;\ntargetOffset = $(\"#tabs\").offset().top;\n$('html,body').animate({scrollTop: targetOffset}, 0, function() {\n$('#article-tabs').tabs(\"select\",'comments');\n});\nreturn false;\n}\n$(document).ready(function() {\n$(\"#alert-close\").click(function() {\n$(\"#alert-form\").hide();\n});\nvar latestCommentsDisplay = $.cookie('gam.art.latest-comments-display');\nif (latestCommentsDisplay != null) {\nif (latestCommentsDisplay == \"block\") { $('#latest-comments h4.toggle').removeClass('close'); }\n$('#latest-comments-content').css({'display': latestCommentsDisplay});\n}\n$(window).unload(function() {\nvar display = $('#latest-comments-content').css('display');\n$.cookie('gam.art.latest-comments-display', '', { expires:-1});\n$.cookie('gam.art.latest-comments-display', display, {expires: 365, path:'\/'});\n});\n});\n\/\/ ]]><\/script><\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Neil Reynolds Turkey, leader of the Muslim world? AP Political scientist George Friedman thinks so. When the next global war breaks out, he reckons, Turkey will join Japan to drive the U.S. out of the Middle East and the Pacific ============================== Neil Reynolds Published on Monday, Apr. 12, 2010 5:00AM EDT Last updated on Monday, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":83,"featured_media":51324,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[89],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18426","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-turkey"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18426","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/83"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18426"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18426\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/51324"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18426"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18426"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18426"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}