By Vahagn Muradyan (03\/17\/2010 issue of the CACI Analyst)<\/p>\n
The Turkish-Armenian protocols signed last year in Zurich raised concerns that the perspective of Georgia\u2019s decreased significance as a transit country for Armenia may boost nationalist demands around the Armenian minority in Georgia and cause new instability. While the protocols may not materialize in the foreseeable future, thus never inducing visible change in Yerevan\u2019s policies, developments observed since the activation of Turkish-Armenian negotiations suggest that in case of full normalization Yerevan may attempt more assertive policies to uphold the cultural rights of Armenians in Georgia, without supporting their political demands and calls for autonomy.<\/p>\n
BACKGROUND: Armenian policies towards Georgia have been traditionally shaped by two factors: interest in safe transit for the Armenian and Armenia-bound goods through Georgia, and the situation with the Armenian minority in Georgia\u2019s Samtskhe\u2013Javakheti region with the accompanying issue of preserving the Armenian cultural heritage in Georgia. Closed borders with Turkey and Azerbaijan, leaving Georgia as the only route to Russian and European markets, have developed a strong sense among the Armenian leadership of dependence on Georgia. This reality made Yerevan tailor its policies to the transit needs and cooperate with Tbilisi to manage the grievances of the Armenian minority in Georgia.<\/p>\n
On the regional level, a lack of relations with Turkey has always been an important, although a non-active variable in Yerevan\u2019s interactions with Tbilisi. Animosity between Georgia and Russia, Armenia\u2019s strategic ally, on the other hand, has had a direct impact, which in recent years created at least two situations that tested Yerevan\u2019s commitment to stability in Georgia.<\/p>\n
In 2005, the stated policy of non-interference in Georgia\u2019s domestic affairs amid the crisis over the Russian military base in Akhalkalaki was an important occasion for President Robert Kocharyan, a hard-liner with a nationalist agenda, to demonstrate adherence to the already established line. The base was a source of employment for many and was also perceived as a security guarantee for the Armenian community populating a region bordering Turkey. The protests of Javakheti Armenians in March 2005 against the removal of the base triggered a visit of President Kocharyan to Georgia on April 1, 2005, at the invitation of Georgian President Saakashvili, and was widely perceived as a contribution on Armenia\u2019s part to stabilize the situation.<\/p>\n
The August 2008 war between Russia and Georgia, and Russia\u2019s recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent was yet another predicament. It put Armenia under pressure, prompting President Serzh Sargsyan to publicly pose the question of recognition of the two entities and elaborate a position that would both find understanding in Russia and reassure Georgia. In his annual speech to the diplomatic corps delivered on September 3, 2008, Sargsyan stated it was impossible to consider the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, while Nagorno-Karabakh \u2013 an entity in a similar situation \u2013 remained unrecognized by Armenia.<\/p>\n
Cautious policies of the political leadership have always been in sharp contrast to public demands for adopting a harder line on problems in Javakheti, especially frequently voiced by the Armenian Revolutionary Federation \u2013 Dashnaktsutiun Party as well as many Yerevan-based Javakheti Armenians who have successfully organized themselves around this idea in Armenia\u2019s political system.<\/p>\n
IMPLICATIONS: How would possible Turkish-Armenian reconciliation influence Armenia\u2019s policies towards Georgia? The generally skeptical outlook for full and rapid normalization does not allow any definite conclusions. However, certain new features displayed after the activation of the process, as well as societal expectations in Armenia, imply that a potential opening of the border could make Yerevan more responsive to the cultural demands of Armenians in Georgia.<\/p>\n
President Sargsyan\u2019s understanding of Turkey\u2019s role has already marked a departure from his predecessor\u2019s policies that sought to isolate Turkey from regional affairs.<\/p>\n
The first and so far most serious sign that reconciliation with Turkey may impact the usual format of Georgian-Armenian relations came on September 1, 2009, the day after the Turkish-Armenian protocols were made public. In an unprecedented statement, President Sargsyan mentioned the protection of Armenian monuments, registration of the Armenian Church in Georgia and recognition of Armenian as a regional language in Javakheti as cornerstones for strengthening Armenia\u2019s friendship with Georgia. While the speech announced aspiration for a more assertive role in advocating the rights of Georgia\u2019s Armenians, the exhaustive nature of the three principles \u2013 strictly confined to cultural demands \u2013 also implied a delimitation of the areas where Yerevan felt it could legitimately intervene and by default underscored Armenia\u2019s attention to Tbilisi\u2019s concerns about political objectives advanced by national minorities.<\/p>\n
The speech also signaled a significant shift from Kocharyan\u2019s vision for the region, where Turkey was perceived as a security threat and maintaining unproblematic ties with Georgia outranked initiatives with Ankara. Consistent with this line, Kocharyan, while upholding non-interference in Georgia\u2019s internal affairs, showed sympathy for the security concerns of Javakheti Armenians vis-\u00e0-vis Turkey. In contrast, cultural demands were given less prominence, and Armenians were urged to learn Georgian instead of seeking an official status for the language.<\/p>\n
On the societal level, the expectation that the rapprochement will bring about a harder line resonated well with the organizations advocating the cause of Javakheti Armenians. Shirak Torosyan, an MP from President Sargsyan\u2019s Republican Party and chairman of \u201cJavakhq [Javakheti] Compatriot Association\u201d stated that after alternative routes are opened, Armenia will toughen its stance on problems in Javakheti.<\/p>\n
Divisions over the protocols in Armenian society were also replicated in discussions about Georgia, indicating opposition to sharp policy revisions. The Civilitas Foundation \u2013 established by Vartan Oskanyan, Foreign Minister in Kocharyan\u2019s administration and an opponent of the protocols \u2013 cautioned in its 2009 report against \u201ccomplacency\u201d regarding Georgia, even after opening of the border. This understanding was adequately grasped in Tbilisi too. Georgian Prime Minister Nika Gilauri pointed out that the opening will not affect transit prices for Armenia while visiting Yerevan in January 2010.<\/p>\n
Concerns about \u201ccomplacency\u201d, however, may have been exaggerated. As the reopening on March 1 of the Upper Larsi checkpoint between Russia and Georgia showed, President Sargsyan, while seeking relations with Turkey and probing a new tone on Javakheti, continued to prioritize relations with Tbilisi and worked on restoring communications through Georgia. This became evident with Sargsyan\u2019s February 27 trip to Georgia to discuss the reopening with Mikheil Saakashvili, and was confirmed by statements that since October 2009 Armenia played a key mediating role, alongside with the Swiss, to secure the opening. This effectively showed that even in the fall of 2009, when a rapid ratification of the protocols was widely expected, Armenia did not regard Turkey as an alternative to Georgia.<\/p>\n
This attitude seems to have been reciprocated by the Georgian side. Georgian officials announced that the checkpoint was opened at the request of Armenia, the main beneficiary of the overland link with Russia. However, against the backdrop of Turkish-Armenian talks, the opening also revealed Georgia\u2019s interest in buttressing its position as a transit route for Armenia, besides demonstrating Tbilisi\u2019s commitment to neighborly relations.<\/p>\n
CONCLUSIONS: A possible opening with Turkey would enhance Armenia\u2019s regional role and offer a better bargaining position with Georgia. However, serious policy revisions that may endanger relations with Tbilisi are unlikely. The low level of trust between Armenia and Turkey will sustain Armenia\u2019s sense of dependence on Tbilisi even in the event of an actual opening of the border. Avoiding adventurous policies towards Georgia has been the hallmark of all successive governments in Armenia, and any policy shifts introduced as a result of normalization with Turkey would likely be limited to more emphasis on cultural demands with continued consideration of Tbilisi\u2019s concerns and expectations. A failure of the reconciliation process, on the other hand, will likely result in backtracking to Kocharyan\u2019s vision of the region and discourage Yerevan to attempt a more active role in advocating the cultural rights of Javakheti Armenians.<\/p>\n
AUTHOR\u2019S BIO: Vahagn Muradyan is a freelance researcher based in Yerevan.<\/p>\n
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