{"id":14804,"date":"2009-09-18T20:47:16","date_gmt":"2009-09-18T18:47:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.turkishforum.com.tr\/en\/content\/?p=14804"},"modified":"2023-04-06T09:38:57","modified_gmt":"2023-04-06T06:38:57","slug":"turkish-gambit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/2009\/09\/18\/turkish-gambit\/","title":{"rendered":"Turkish Gambit"},"content":{"rendered":"

by Jaroslaw Adamowski<\/span>
\n15\u00a0September\u00a02009<\/p>\n

As a keystone in two competing natural-gas schemes, Turkey can be either pawn or power broker.<\/em><\/p>\n

European opinion makers followed Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin\u2019s visit to Turkey in August with keen interest. Among the 20 or so agreements he and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, signed was one initiating Turkey\u2019s participation in the South Stream natural-gas pipeline to Europe \u2013 coming less than a month after Turkey hosted a summit for European Union countries participating in the Nabucco project, generally perceived as a rival to Russia\u2019s South Stream.<\/p>\n

Since Putin\u2019s visit to Ankara, pundits and analysts have continued to speculate on the future of Turkish-Russian relations, the dynamics of their fast-growing bilateral trade (behind the EU, Russia is Turkey\u2019s prime trade partner), or Ankara\u2019s dependence on Russia for 65 percent of the natural gas and 25 percent of the oil it consumes. Missing from many analyses was the possible impact of South Stream on Turkey\u2019s relations with the European Union, especially the bloc\u2019s members with direct engagement in Nabucco.<\/p>\n

JITTERY LAUNCH<\/p>\n

Nabucco was formally launched \u2013 although the question of which countries will supply its gas is far from clear \u2013 at the July joint summit with Austria, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Romania, the four EU members the new pipeline is slated to traverse. The Russian authorities were also invited to the summit but chose not to attend. The project was designed to diversify Europe\u2019s energy supply with Caucasian, Central Asian, and Middle Eastern natural gas resources, but no potential source countries are formally on board yet.<\/p>\n

Nabucco faces other problems as well. On 14 September a spokesman for the consortium in charge of the project said its completion would be delayed two years, until 2016, UPI reported. Any delay could be a gift to Russia, but as the Kremlin faces serious problems raising funds for its own energy projects, South Stream\u2019s construction could be slowed as well.<\/p>\n

Some experts suggest that stagnation in Turkey\u2019s EU membership negotiations is the key to understanding Ankara\u2019s complex foreign policy. Turkish politicians from government circles, however, counter this notion.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is no link between the membership talks slowdown and Turkey\u2019s participation in the South Stream project,\u201d said Ozlem Turkone, a member of parliament for Istanbul and deputy chair of the ruling Justice and Development Party\u2019s foreign affairs department.<\/p>\n

\u201cBecoming an energy hub for the surrounding European and Asian regions has always been Turkey\u2019s objective, and participating in both the Nabucco and South Stream pipelines is part of it,\u201d she said. \u201cEurope needs to diversify its sources of energy, and so does Turkey. Everyone will profit from our engagement in both projects.\u201d<\/p>\n

Similar opinions were expressed by Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. Interviewed by the Turkish Kanal 7 TV channel, the minister said the South Stream project \u201ccreates a North-South energy corridor, similar to the East-West corridor of Nabucco,\u201d and therefore the two pipelines \u201care not substitutes for each other.\u201d<\/p>\n

South Stream would cross Turkish waters in the Black Sea before coming ashore in Bulgaria; Nabucco is set to traverse the Caucasus and Turkey over land.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

South Stream<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Nabucco<\/em><\/p>\n

Still, such views draw criticism not only from many EU officials, who regard the pipelines as competitors and often accuse Russia of attempts to destabilize European energy security, but also from Turkey\u2019s opposition parties. \u201cBefore turning to profit, we had better check the financial side of the balance sheet in this project, which I believe is missing in the whole picture,\u201d said Mustafa Ozyurek, former general manager of Petrol Ofisi, Turkey\u2019s major oil and gas distribution company, and currently an MP for the opposition Republican People\u2019s Party. Ozyurek said he and other experts believe the pipelines cannot both be operated cost-effectively, either by Turkey or the other partners.<\/p>\n

However, \u201cNabucco itself can cover up to only 7 percent of the European Union\u2019s gas supply needs,\u201d Turkone said, adding that \u201cin order to provide enough energy to the European market, we need to focus on both projects, none of which should be viewed as harming anyone\u2019s interests.\u201d<\/p>\n

DIVIDED LOYALTIES<\/p>\n

While many observers continue to perceive the Russian-backed South Stream pipeline as a threat to the energy security of many new EU states, ironically, it is some of those same countries that could hobble Nabucco\u2019s creation by their commitment to South Stream. Sezin Oney, a Budapest-based correspondent and columnist for the Turkish daily Taraf, <\/em>said, \u201cHungary itself signed an agreement to join South Stream on 10 March, when Prime Minister [Ferenc] Gyurcsany paid a visit to Moscow. \u2026 Despite Hungarians\u2019 generally distrustful approach to Russia, which is due to historical reasons, public opinion remains quite rational, in my opinion, about the pipeline issue. Be it South Stream, be it Nabucco \u2013 if the gas is supplied and affordable, the source does not matter either to the public or to the politicians.\u201d<\/p>\n

Some of the most energy-insecure countries on the EU\u2019s eastern fringe, unsure of which pipeline has a better chance of being completed, are choosing to participate in Nabucco and South Stream alike. But the one neighboring country that is being bypassed in both scenarios is Ukraine. Seeing the clear deterioration of already strained relations between Moscow and Kyiv over Russia\u2019s continuing attempts to undermine Ukraine\u2019s current pro-Western stance, many European analysts agree that South Stream\u2019s main objective is to enlarge Moscow\u2019s political leverage over Kyiv. During last winter\u2019s gas crisis, provoked by a Russian-Ukrainian dispute over gas and transit payments, Central and Eastern European public opinion generally sympathized with the Ukrainians, accusing Moscow of energy blackmailing its neighbor. Still, some Russian experts maintain that Central Europe should re-evaluate its stance on relations with Kyiv.<\/p>\n

\u201cGiven the political and economical instability in Ukraine, I think that it is very much in Europe\u2019s interest to diminish this country\u2019s role in gas transit,\u201d argues Dmitri Babich, a political commentator with Russia Profile<\/em> magazine, published by the government-owned RIA Novosti news agency.<\/p>\n

\u201cPrime Minister Putin came to Ankara to show Europe that Nabucco and South Stream can complement each other and that Russia is willing to cooperate with both Turkey and the EU,\u201d Babich said.<\/p>\n

Such views reflect the official position of the Russian government. Decision-makers in Moscow understand that Europe disapproves of the political use of energy and generally try not to manifest it too openly. However, when speaking off the record, one can hear different voices from Russian diplomatic circles.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Kremlin is well aware of the fact that in the long term, Turkey will always strive to eventually join the EU, and we have already accepted it,\u201d said a senior official at the Russian general consulate in Istanbul who asked to remain anonymous. \u201cStill, Ukraine\u2019s membership in NATO or in the EU is unacceptable, and its authorities should bear in mind that transit country status is not given forever.\u201d<\/p>\n

On 13 July, at the Nabucco signing ceremony in Ankara, a special brand of wine, designed for this occasion, was distributed among the foreign guests. Composed of six wine strains, one from each country at the summit and one from Germany, it was produced to order for RWE, Germany\u2019s major energy supply company and a partner in the Nabucco project.<\/p>\n

It seems that the next few months will be crucial not only for European energy solidarity, which will be tested by Russia\u2019s rival project, but also for the fate of those 600 bottles of special wine. If the EU Nabucco participants and Turkey don\u2019t let their commitments to Nabucco flag in favor of South Stream, politicians and diplomats will be able to exhibit the dry red Nabucco cuv\u00e9e 2009 in their spacious offices with pride. Otherwise, the EU-backed pipeline\u2019s setback will definitely spoil the wine.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/td>\n

\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/td>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

<\/a>Jaroslaw Adamowski <\/em><\/strong>is a freelance writer who divides his time between Warsaw and Istanbul.<\/em><\/p>\n

South Stream would cross Turkish waters in the Black Sea before coming ashore in Bulgaria; Nabucco is set to traverse the Caucasus and Turkey over land.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

South Stream<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Nabucco<\/em><\/p>\n

Still, such views draw criticism not only from many EU officials, who regard the pipelines as competitors and often accuse Russia of attempts to destabilize European energy security, but also from Turkey\u2019s opposition parties. \u201cBefore turning to profit, we had better check the financial side of the balance sheet in this project, which I believe is missing in the whole picture,\u201d said Mustafa Ozyurek, former general manager of Petrol Ofisi, Turkey\u2019s major oil and gas distribution company, and currently an MP for the opposition Republican People\u2019s Party. Ozyurek said he and other experts believe the pipelines cannot both be operated cost-effectively, either by Turkey or the other partners.<\/p>\n

However, \u201cNabucco itself can cover up to only 7 percent of the European Union\u2019s gas supply needs,\u201d Turkone said, adding that \u201cin order to provide enough energy to the European market, we need to focus on both projects, none of which should be viewed as harming anyone\u2019s interests.\u201d<\/p>\n

DIVIDED LOYALTIES<\/p>\n

While many observers continue to perceive the Russian-backed South Stream pipeline as a threat to the energy security of many new EU states, ironically, it is some of those same countries that could hobble Nabucco\u2019s creation by their commitment to South Stream. Sezin Oney, a Budapest-based correspondent and columnist for the Turkish daily Taraf, <\/em>said, \u201cHungary itself signed an agreement to join South Stream on 10 March, when Prime Minister [Ferenc] Gyurcsany paid a visit to Moscow. \u2026 Despite Hungarians\u2019 generally distrustful approach to Russia, which is due to historical reasons, public opinion remains quite rational, in my opinion, about the pipeline issue. Be it South Stream, be it Nabucco \u2013 if the gas is supplied and affordable, the source does not matter either to the public or to the politicians.\u201d<\/p>\n

Some of the most energy-insecure countries on the EU\u2019s eastern fringe, unsure of which pipeline has a better chance of being completed, are choosing to participate in Nabucco and South Stream alike. But the one neighboring country that is being bypassed in both scenarios is Ukraine. Seeing the clear deterioration of already strained relations between Moscow and Kyiv over Russia\u2019s continuing attempts to undermine Ukraine\u2019s current pro-Western stance, many European analysts agree that South Stream\u2019s main objective is to enlarge Moscow\u2019s political leverage over Kyiv. During last winter\u2019s gas crisis, provoked by a Russian-Ukrainian dispute over gas and transit payments, Central and Eastern European public opinion generally sympathized with the Ukrainians, accusing Moscow of energy blackmailing its neighbor. Still, some Russian experts maintain that Central Europe should re-evaluate its stance on relations with Kyiv.<\/p>\n

\u201cGiven the political and economical instability in Ukraine, I think that it is very much in Europe\u2019s interest to diminish this country\u2019s role in gas transit,\u201d argues Dmitri Babich, a political commentator with Russia Profile<\/em> magazine, published by the government-owned RIA Novosti news agency.<\/p>\n

\u201cPrime Minister Putin came to Ankara to show Europe that Nabucco and South Stream can complement each other and that Russia is willing to cooperate with both Turkey and the EU,\u201d Babich said.<\/p>\n

Such views reflect the official position of the Russian government. Decision-makers in Moscow understand that Europe disapproves of the political use of energy and generally try not to manifest it too openly. However, when speaking off the record, one can hear different voices from Russian diplomatic circles.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Kremlin is well aware of the fact that in the long term, Turkey will always strive to eventually join the EU, and we have already accepted it,\u201d said a senior official at the Russian general consulate in Istanbul who asked to remain anonymous. \u201cStill, Ukraine\u2019s membership in NATO or in the EU is unacceptable, and its authorities should bear in mind that transit country status is not given forever.\u201d<\/p>\n

On 13 July, at the Nabucco signing ceremony in Ankara, a special brand of wine, designed for this occasion, was distributed among the foreign guests. Composed of six wine strains, one from each country at the summit and one from Germany, it was produced to order for RWE, Germany\u2019s major energy supply company and a partner in the Nabucco project.<\/p>\n

It seems that the next few months will be crucial not only for European energy solidarity, which will be tested by Russia\u2019s rival project, but also for the fate of those 600 bottles of special wine. If the EU Nabucco participants and Turkey don\u2019t let their commitments to Nabucco flag in favor of South Stream, politicians and diplomats will be able to exhibit the dry red Nabucco cuv\u00e9e 2009 in their spacious offices with pride. Otherwise, the EU-backed pipeline\u2019s setback will definitely spoil the wine.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/td>\n

\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

<\/a>Jaroslaw Adamowski <\/em><\/strong>is a freelance writer who divides his time between Warsaw and Istanbul.<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

by Jaroslaw Adamowski 15\u00a0September\u00a02009 As a keystone in two competing natural-gas schemes, Turkey can be either pawn or power broker. European opinion makers followed Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin\u2019s visit to Turkey in August with keen interest. Among the 20 or so agreements he and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, signed was one initiating […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":83,"featured_media":65906,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,835,42,89],"tags":[176],"class_list":["post-14804","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-eu-members","category-europe","category-russia","category-turkey","tag-energy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14804","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/83"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14804"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14804\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/65906"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14804"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14804"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14804"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}