{"id":108305,"date":"2014-08-08T16:49:38","date_gmt":"2014-08-08T13:49:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/?p=108305"},"modified":"2014-08-08T16:49:38","modified_gmt":"2014-08-08T13:49:38","slug":"turkeys-leaders-are-in-danger-of-scuttling-a-major-natural-gas-project-with-israel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/2014\/08\/08\/turkeys-leaders-are-in-danger-of-scuttling-a-major-natural-gas-project-with-israel\/","title":{"rendered":"Turkey&#8217;s Leaders Are In Danger Of Scuttling A Major Natural Gas Project With Israel"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 style=\"color: #000000;\"><\/h1>\n<div id=\"content\" class=\"content\" style=\"color: #000000;\">\n<div class=\"post-top\">\n<div class=\"flex byline\">\n<div class=\"flex-item\">\n<div class=\"list-pipes\">\n<ul>\n<li class=\"all-caps author-byline ks-author-byline\"><i class=\"fa fa-stop\" style=\"color: #3f8e3b;\" title=\"Military &amp; Defense Contributors\"><\/i>DOV FRIEDMAN, THE JACKSON INSTITUTE FOR GLOBAL AFFAIRS AT YALE UNIVERSITY<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"clear-both\">\n<div class=\"KonaBody post-content\">\n<p class=\"p1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/ap223456183989.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-108306\" src=\"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/ap223456183989.jpg\" alt=\"ap223456183989\" width=\"540\" height=\"360\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/ap223456183989.jpg 540w, https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/ap223456183989-300x200.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"KonaFilter image-container float_right\">\n<div class=\"image\">\n<p class=\"source\" style=\"font-style: italic; color: #999999;\">AP Photo\/Visar Kryeziu<\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">Turkish Prime Minister Recip Tayyip Erdogan<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"related-links-container minimal ks-see-also\" data-bi-heatmap=\"53e39a206da8118a46c45629\">\n<h3 class=\"underlined\" style=\"color: inherit;\"><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Throughout Israel\u2019s military operation in Gaza, Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdo\u011fan appeared committed to outdoing himself in his hyperbolic criticism of Israel. A series of references to Israel massacring the population of Gaza\u00a0<span class=\"s2\" style=\"color: #196d8d;\">culminated<\/span>\u00a0with accusations that Israel had \u201csurpassed Hitler in barbarism.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">The comments marked only the latest nadir in Turkey-Israel relations. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has typically been muted in his responses to Erdo\u011fan\u2019s previous outbursts. But Netanyahu reacted differently to his Turkish counterpart\u2019s latest paroxysm.\u00a0<span class=\"s2\" style=\"color: #196d8d;\">He called<\/span>\u00a0Erdo\u011fan\u2019s comments anti-Semitic, and downgraded diplomatic relations with Turkey to the \u201cminimum required\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">In the scheme of the four-plus year Turkey-Israel feud, this incident might seem to change little. The deal that began with Netanyahu\u2019s apology for the Mavi Marmara snagged on the question of payment, but its outlines remain clear \u2014 if the sides can ever move beyond petty insults, that is.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Erdo\u011fan certainly benefits domestically from harsh rhetoric toward Israel, and he is presently in the home stretch of a presidential campaign he desperately wants to win on the first ballot.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p2\">All the while, economic relations between Turkey and Israel\u00a0<span class=\"s2\">have never been better\u00a0<\/span>\u2014 with trade up 39% to $48.5 billion in 2013, and on pace to break that record in 2014. Tourism between the two countries remains strong, and there were a\u00a0record number\u00a0of Turkish visitors to Israel in 2013.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p2\">It is enough for optimists to look past the histrionics and see relations that are stable and productive, at least beneath the surface.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">That analysis may be breaking down, however, when it comes to one huge economic topic: energy, and specifically Israel\u2019s gas reserves.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">There is widespread agreement that a gas pipeline from Israel\u2019s fields to Turkey\u2019s ports is the most logical and lucrative export route available.\u00a0<\/span>Yet Turkey\u2019s scorching rhetoric has, in Israel\u2019s eyes, undermined its reliability as a partner for new initiatives \u2014 even for what is, at core, a mutually beneficial economic project. As a result, a joint venture that by any reasonable measure should commence seems to be indefinitely stalled, to the economic and strategic detriment of both parties.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Turkey\u2019s interest in Israeli gas stems from its rapidly increasing domestic needs. Natural gas consumption has risen threefold since 2001 and rose by a third between 2009 and 2012 before leveling off around 47 billion cubic meters (BCM) per year in 2013.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Russia supplied more than 55% of Turkey\u2019s natural gas, and Iran chipped in nearly another 20 percent. Russia\u2019s market power enables it to extract a high price for its gas, and Turkey\u2019s long term\u00a0take-or-pay contracts\u00a0only exacerbate the financial burdens.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">In an effort to achieve cost savings through competition, Turkey has actively sought to diversify its supply lines. Azerbaijan currently provides roughly 4 BCM to the Turkish market, with plans to increase its supply to Turkey above 10 BCM in the coming years. Turkey also seeks gas from the Kurdistan Regional Government\u2019s (KRG) rich gas fields in northern Iraq, though these are unlikely to come online until nearly the end of this decade.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Turkey has factored Israeli gas into its strategy as well. Even with projected increases in consumption to 70 BCM per year by 2025, Kurdistan, Azerbaijan, and Israel collectively could help the Turks limit their dependence on Russia and Iran.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Israel would not be some bit player in this scheme.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">With fully-funded infrastructure projects and based only on current reserves, Israel could export 22 BCM per year. Even with Egypt claiming 7 BCM per year at present, Israel could conceivably still pipe 15 BCM to Turkey \u2014 more than 20% of the Turks\u2019 projected domestic needs a decade from now.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">For its part, Israel faces open questions about how Leviathan \u2014 its largest gas field \u2014 will be funded. In late July, Noble Energy\u00a0<span class=\"s2\" style=\"color: #196d8d;\">elected to delay until 2015 its decision<\/span>\u00a0about investing $6 billion in Phase 1 development. Strictures on reserving gas for the domestic market and the threat of anti-trust intervention to fix prices factored heavily into the decision.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">At the same time, only Egypt has emerged as a viable revenue-driving export destination. Yet Turkey\u2019s voracious appetite for natural gas could ensure the profitability of a fully-developed Leviathan field, while incentivizing further development of Israel\u2019s gas industry through exploration.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">The country&#8217;s direction under\u00a0Erdo\u011fan\u00a0endangers this arrangement. Turkey has positioned itself less and less as the mediating, facilitating actor of the late-2000s and early-2010s. An increasingly divisive foreign policy \u2014 consisting of fevered perorations after Abdel Fattah al-Sisi\u2019s coup in Egypt and an apparent toleration of Syrian jihadist group Jabhat al-Nusra&#8217;s presence on Turkish soil \u2014 culminated in Turkey\u00a0<span class=\"s2\" style=\"color: #196d8d;\">taking its place<\/span>\u00a0as Hamas\u2019\u00a0<span class=\"s2\" style=\"color: #196d8d;\">deputy interlocutor<\/span>\u00a0in negotiations with the U.S. and Israel during the latest Gaza crisis.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Israel has taken note of the Turkish government\u2019s shift. While Israel is not reckless or foolish enough to cancel profitable existing business relationships, future ones \u2014 especially in areas of such strategic import, like energy \u2014 will attract heavier scrutiny.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Some experts argue that this is sound policy. Why should Israel provide a strategic asset to an openly hostile leader like Erdo\u011fan? Others believe that, while Israel should still pursue the deal, it will not.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">They explain that the deal is in Israel\u2019s best interest, so why should it matter who stands at the other end? But, they claim, Netanyahu feels too bitterly toward Turkey\u2019s AK Party government to countenance rebuilding strategic ties and selling them gas.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Whether Israel should or will sell to Turkey, few in Israel believe that a pipeline deal with Turkey is in the making in the near term. Turkey will carry on paying Russia and Iran\u2019s steep fees, and Israel will await word on Noble\u2019s future plans for Leviathan.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">This is merely one consequence of the Gaza operation: the non-realization of a deal on natural gas that both sides want \u2014 and may desperately need.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><\/p>\n<p>Read more:\u00a0http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/turkey-could-doom-a-gas-project-with-israel-2014-8#ixzz39oAbAt00<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>DOV FRIEDMAN, THE JACKSON INSTITUTE FOR GLOBAL AFFAIRS AT YALE UNIVERSITY AP Photo\/Visar Kryeziu Turkish Prime Minister Recip Tayyip Erdogan Throughout Israel\u2019s military operation in Gaza, Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdo\u011fan appeared committed to outdoing himself in his hyperbolic criticism of Israel. A series of references to Israel massacring the population of Gaza\u00a0culminated\u00a0with accusations that [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":83,"featured_media":108306,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[148],"tags":[3803],"class_list":["post-108305","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-israel","tag-netanyahu"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108305","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/83"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=108305"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108305\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/108306"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=108305"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=108305"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=108305"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}