{"id":106843,"date":"2014-03-26T14:50:13","date_gmt":"2014-03-26T12:50:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/?p=106843"},"modified":"2023-04-02T16:02:19","modified_gmt":"2023-04-02T13:02:19","slug":"in-new-cold-war-russia-can-hit-america-where-it-hurts-on-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/2014\/03\/26\/in-new-cold-war-russia-can-hit-america-where-it-hurts-on-iran\/","title":{"rendered":"In new cold war, Russia can hit America where it hurts \u2013 on Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1><\/h1>\n<p class=\"byline \"><span>By Roula Khalaf in London<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"standfirst\">Moscow could sell Tehran missiles or undermine sanctions<\/div>\n<div id=\"storyContent\">\n<div class=\"fullstoryImage fullstoryImageLeft article\" style=\"width: 272px;\"><span class=\"story-image\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/PUTIN1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-106844\" alt=\"PUTIN\" src=\"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/PUTIN1.jpg\" width=\"272\" height=\"153\" \/><\/a>B)AFP<\/span><\/div>\n<p data-track-pos=\"0\"><span class=\"firstletter\">A<\/span>s Russia sped ahead with the annexation of Crimea and the US drew up more sanctions to punish Moscow, American and Russian officials were last week working side by side in Vienna as if unaffected by the unfolding drama of the new cold war.<\/p>\n<p data-track-pos=\"1\">Emerging from a round of international negotiations with Iran on downsizing its nuclear ambitions, US officials expressed satisfaction that their Russian colleagues had acted constructively.<\/p>\n<p data-track-pos=\"2\">Moscow, said a senior US official, had no interest in Iran obtaining a nuclear bomb or in an escalation in tensions in the Gulf. Moscow takes part in the Iran negotiations for its own interests, he noted, not those of the US.<\/p>\n<div class=\"story-package\" data-track-comp-name=\"moreOn\">\n<h4>Global Insight<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li data-track-pos=\"8\">Japanb\u0019s tax rise risks consuming Abe<\/li>\n<li data-track-pos=\"9\">Threat remains of Russian action<\/li>\n<li data-track-pos=\"10\">Obama forced to focus on Russian threat<\/li>\n<li data-track-pos=\"11\">Catalan business uneasily eyes breakaway<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p>Yet, it would be wishful thinking to assume that if the crisis over Ukraine continues to deteriorate it will not seep through Russian policy towards the Middle East and affect Iran, primarily because that is where the US would be hurt most.<\/p>\n<p data-track-pos=\"3\">Motivated by fierce nationalism and a deep sense of historic injustice, for which he blames the west, Russian president Vladimir Putin has been lashing out with little apparent regard for the consequences. If cornered, he will be tempted to use all the levers at his disposal to retaliate against western sanctions.<\/p>\n<p>b\u001cIf you look at this rationally there no reason why Russians would want to undermine the [nuclear] talks in any way butb .b .b .b at this point you canb\u0019t count on him [Putin] making calculations of cost and benefit,b\u001d says Robert Einhorn, a former US negotiator with Iran.<\/p>\n<p>Despite Russian good behaviour in Vienna, Moscowb\u0019s representatives departed with a warning shot, with a senior official saying that Russia might have to use the nuclear talks b\u001cas an element in the game of raising the stakesb\u001d.<\/p>\n<p>Fyodor Lukyanov, a foreign policy expert in Moscow, says he expects a tightening of Russian relations with Iran and more intensive supplies of arms to Syria, where Moscow has been propping up the Assad regime.<\/p>\n<p>b\u001cRussia will see no reason at all to ease US troubles in the Middle East,b\u001d Mr Lukyanov predicts.<\/p>\n<p>But to what extent could Russia damage western interests? Withdrawing from the Iran nuclear talks would be futile. But Moscow could try to weaken western resolve and embolden Iran.<\/p>\n<div class=\"pullquote pullquoteAlternate\" style=\"padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; overflow: visible;\"><q><span class=\"openQuote\">This<\/span> is the one card that they [the Russians] have. The S-300 can be a game changer; it would reduce Israelb\u0019s ability to attack <span class=\"closeQuote\">Iran<\/span><\/q>&#8211; Cliff Kupchan, analyst at Eurasia Group<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Experts are most worried about the potential for new Russian arms sales, in particular the long-range S-300 air defence missile system deal that was cancelled in 2010 under American pressure.<\/p>\n<p>b\u001cThis is the one card that they [the Russians] have,b\u001d argues Cliff Kupchan, analyst at Eurasia Group, the risk researchers and consultants. b\u001cThe S-300 can be a game changer; it would reduce Israelb\u0019s ability to attack Iran.b\u001d<\/p>\n<p>Also troubling, but with less impact, are possible Russian moves to undermine the sanctions regime that contributed to Tehranb\u0019s decision to negotiate in the first place.<\/p>\n<p>Moscow, for example, could give a green light for banks to resume transactions with entities in Tehran, or it could revive mooted trade accords opposed by the US.<\/p>\n<p>A barter agreement allowing Iran to sell its oil to Russia in exchange for goods and equipment has been rumoured for months.<\/p>\n<div class=\"promobox\" style=\"padding-left: 8px; padding-right: 8px; overflow: visible;\">\n<h3>In depth<\/h3>\n<p>Iran under Rouhani<\/p>\n<div class=\"promobox-img\"><\/div>\n<p>Iranb\u0019s President Hassan Rouhani is looking to pursue a foreign policy of moderation after tough financial sanctions have brought the Islamic Republicb\u0019s economy to a standstill<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>While some experts doubt such a strategy would be effective b\u0013 and Iranb\u0019s own oil ministry is said to be sceptical about the oil deal b\u0013 Mark Fitzpatrick, non-proliferation analyst at Londonb\u0019s International Institute for Strategic Studies, says breaking the oil embargo could encourage China and others to ignore the sanctions, and give Iran more incentive to maintain a hardline position in the talks.<\/p>\n<p>This field of new possibilities is probably being closely studied in Tehran, where attempts to exploit divisions among world powers have long been a favoured tactic.<\/p>\n<p>Iranian officials, however, also appear mindful that the east-west tensions could be a minefield. They have trod a cautious line in their reaction to Russiab\u0019s annexation of Crimea, with some commentators expressing hope that Europeb\u0019s need to reduce reliance on Russian gas offered opportunity for Iranb\u0019s struggling energy sector.<\/p>\n<p>Despite the short-term benefits of closer ties with Russia, Iranb\u0019s objective in resolving the nuclear dispute is to fix its economy with western finance, investment and technology b\u0013 not tie it to a faltering Russian economy saddled with its own set of sanctions.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"insideArticleRelatedTopics ft-spc-btm-full\" data-track-comp-name=\"relatedTopics\">\n<h2 class=\"ft-heading ft-heading-medium\">Related Topics<\/h2>\n<ul class=\"ft-list ft-list-plain ft-list-wrapping\">\n<li class=\"ft-list-item\" data-track-pos=\"0\">Russian politics,<\/li>\n<li class=\"ft-list-item\" data-track-pos=\"1\">United States of America,<\/li>\n<li class=\"ft-list-item\" data-track-pos=\"2\">Russia,<\/li>\n<li class=\"ft-list-item\" data-track-pos=\"3\">Vladimir Putin,<\/li>\n<li class=\"ft-list-item\" data-track-pos=\"4\">Iran under Rouhani<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"screen-copy\">Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2014. You may share using our article tools.<br \/>\nPlease don&#8217;t cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Roula Khalaf in London Moscow could sell Tehran missiles or undermine sanctions B)AFP As Russia sped ahead with the annexation of Crimea and the US drew up more sanctions to punish Moscow, American and Russian officials were last week working side by side in Vienna as if unaffected by the unfolding drama of the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":83,"featured_media":106844,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[89],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-106843","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-turkey"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106843","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/83"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=106843"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106843\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/106844"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=106843"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=106843"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishnews.com\/en\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=106843"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}