Tag: Gul

Turkey Widens its Relations with Developing Nations

Turkey Widens its Relations with Developing Nations

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 6 Issue: 136

July 16, 2009

By: Saban Kardas

On July 15, the Turkish President Abdullah Gul attended the summit of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) as the special guest of the Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, which was held in Sharm al-Sheikh. Gul became the first Turkish president to attend the NAM summit, demonstrating Turkey’s growing involvement with the developing nations as part of its multi-dimensional foreign policy approach.

Prior to his departure for Sharm al-Sheikh, Gul told reporters that this high-level participation builds on earlier representations at the deputy prime minister and ministerial levels in recent years. Gul reiterated the founding mission of the NAM, which was to chart out an independent course of action between the opposing blocs during the Cold War. He emphasized that despite the end of the bipolar system, the movement has maintained its role in international politics by redefining its goals and undertaking new functions. Gul justified Turkey’s engagement with the NAM by referring to the new activism in Ankara’s foreign policy.

Moreover, he highlighted Turkey’s new role as peace broker to facilitate the resolution of regional and global disputes through constructive diplomacy, which underpins Ankara’s desire to pursue such international initiatives. Gul also referred to a complementary process in Turkish foreign policy: the idea that the country should diversify its partnerships and develop new cooperative relationships in different continents, overcoming geographical barriers. He stressed that given that the NAM consists of almost 120 countries, Turkey follows its activities closely, and values its ties with this movement. In addition, he maintained that during its drive for a non-permanent U.N. Security Council seat, Turkey developed important experience in working together with diverse countries and wanted to further strengthen these ties (www.cankaya.gov.tr, July 15).

The current global financial crisis dominated the discussions during the first day of the summit. Cuba’s President Raul Castro maintained that the crisis was caused by rich countries and that poor nations are being forced to share a heavy burden. He called for a new and just global economic system. Mubarak also said that the world faces one of the largest crises, and there is a need for a new economic and commercial order that takes into account the interests of developing nations. The U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon acknowledged that developing countries are disproportionately affected by the global crisis and drew attention to the challenges posed by growing economic nationalism. He emphasized the importance of the role played by free trade to facilitate recovery. The Sudanese President Omar al Bashir (for whom the international criminal court has issued an arrest warrant) and the Libyan President Muammar Qaddafi were among the leaders who spoke at the summit. Qaddafi called for the NAM to receive a seat in the United Nations (Cihan Haber Ajansi, July 15).

During his contacts at the NAM summit, Gul also held bilateral talks with various statesmen including Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon, and his counterpart in Montenegro Filip Vujanovic, the Secretary-General of the Arab League Amr Musa and the Bahrain’s Crown Prince Sheikh Salman bin Hamed Halife. Gul said that he was particularly pleased to see how Turkey was held in high esteem by other countries. The active and constructive role the country plays in the resolution of global problems explains this interest, Gul added (Cihan Haber Ajansi, June 15).

Although it joined NATO in 1952, Turkey initially had connections with the NAM in its formative years when the movement emerged in the mid-1950’s. Turkey attended the Bandung conference in 1955, where it sided with the countries arguing against following a non-alignment policy. It came under criticism because of its pro-Western policies and in subsequent years Ankara increasingly departed from the agenda of the NAM leaders. Instead, Ankara solidified its place in the Western camp during the Cold War as the best way to ensure its own security against what it perceived as the major threat to its survival, stemming from communism. Later, when the same nations worked to create a new economic order, Turkey again sought to integrate its economy into Western institutions.

Consequently, it has encountered several differences with the NAM in its foreign policy issues during the Cold War, especially in regard to the Cyprus issue. When these nations gained a majority in the U.N. General Assembly, they voted against Turkey, given the high profile of Cyprus within the movement. Although this approach was not pursued as aggressively by the NAM in the post-Cold War, even as late as 2003, the year before joining the E.U. and ceasing its membership of the NAM, the Greek Cypriots were able to mobilize the NAM to issue a declaration criticizing Turkey. However, Turkey’s constructive diplomacy in Cyprus in support of the Annan plan and its subsequent international diplomatic initiatives demonstrate the extent to which Turkey has been able to remove traditional sources of tension in its foreign relations and build new partnerships.

July 17, 2009
Opposition Rejects Gul’s Call for Consensus on the Kurdish Question

Opposition Rejects Gul’s Call for Consensus on the Kurdish Question

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 6 Issue: 96

May 19, 2009

By: Saban Kardas

Turkey’s President Abdullah Gul sparked another debate on the Kurdish question, following his recent statement that he is hopeful that a peaceful solution to the Kurdish problem might be imminent. Yet, Gul’s call to address the Kurdish question within the context of improving the country’s democratic practices, encountered resistance from an opposition increasingly skeptical about his policies.

Gul has played an active role in pushing for a democratic solution to the Kurdish issue. In early May, he held discussions with the leaders of the opposition parties. Last week, he maintained that there was a “historic opportunity” before the country to solve the Kurdish issue, adding that Turkey should exploit this opportunity. He called on the opposition parties to play a constructive role toward its resolution (www.ntvmsnbc.com, May 9). Gul’s remarks came amidst reports that the government was working on a new plan to achieve a breakthrough on the Kurdish question. Earlier, the PKK’s acting leader Murat Karayilan, also called for new initiatives and claimed that its views had also changed (EDM, May 7).

The opposition parties criticized Gul for leaving the meaning of “historic opportunity” open to interpretation. The leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), Deniz Baykal, argued that the government’s policies have thus far failed to quell the PKK’s violent campaign. Baykal maintained that the search for a solution, especially the discussions over a general amnesty, was imposed externally. He alleged that the United States and other powers were pressuring Turkey to solve the Kurdish problem, and that President Gul and the government simply responded to this coercion (www.showtvnet.com, May 12). Devlet Bahceli, the leader of the Nationalist Action Party (MHP), also lambasted Gul and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, arguing that the projects currently under consideration might betray the country’s national interests. “For what reason are Gul and the government asking us to contribute? What is the common ground on which they agreed?” Bahceli asked (Milliyet, May 13).

Before his departure for Syria on May 15, Gul told reporters that “there are comprehensive and a well-intentioned effort in Turkey… the country is an open society, and very lively and civilized debates are taking place” (www.nethaber.com, May 15). During his three-day visit to Syria, Gul held a discussion with Turkish journalists in Damascus where he further clarified his opinions on how to resolve the Kurdish question (Zaman, Aksam, Todays’ Zaman, May 18).

Those present interpreted Gul’s meaning of “historic opportunity” to involve a combination of domestic, regional and global factors to facilitate solving the issue. First, Gul argued that a consensus already exists within the state, both on the need as well as the means to address the Kurdish question. “I have been part of the state machinery for 10 years. I am optimistic more than ever. There is a new consensus and close coordination between the civilian and military branches.” He also pointed to the PKK and pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP) incrementally rescinding their demands for an independent state in south-eastern Turkey.

In addition to these positive domestic developments, Gul also believes that global and regional factors currently favor addressing the Kurdish issue. He points out that the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Northern Iraq is actively cooperating with Turkey, while global actors are also promoting the search for a solution. These factors create a unique historical opportunity, which he considers that Turkey must seize immediately.

Gul avoided engaging in a polemic with the leaders of the opposition parties, but indirectly responded to their criticisms. He described the Kurdish issue as a deep-rooted problem that goes beyond daily politics and argued that all political actors are stakeholders in its resolution. Gul noted that the responsibility for finding the solution cannot be left to the government alone, and that all political parties should contribute constructively.

Gul’s comments in Syria, far from answering questions, served to reignite the debate on his vision for a solution. The representatives of the pro-Kurdish DTP welcomed Gul’s remarks. Although they wanted more detail on Gul’s plans, they commended him for making a valuable effort. Such discussions, DTP sources maintained, might provide the basis for debating more concrete proposals (ANKA, May 18). Yet, the representatives of the MHP and CHP harshly condemned Gul. One CHP official criticized Gul for keeping his views so vague and argued that as the head of state, he must openly inform the public (www.ntvmsnbc.com, May 18). An MHP spokesman said Gul was acting as the proxy of the government in seeking to solicit opposition approval for policies agreed behind closed doors (ANKA, May 18).

Gul has attempted since his election to shape the country’s domestic and foreign policies, as in the case of the Kurdish issue and rapprochement with Armenia. However, according to his critics, this role goes beyond his presidential functions. Gul legitimizes his active involvement in politics by presenting his actions as “non-partisan” and claims that he acts as a unifying figure to promote solutions to urgent national problems. However, he has failed to achieve a consensus among the opposition over the government’s policy on the Kurdish issue. The opposition still views him as an extension of the government, while fearing that his efforts to resolve this issue might undermine the territorial integrity of the country. Gul and the government are unlikely to gain the full backing of the opposition parties, unless these concerns are adequately addressed.

https://jamestown.org/program/opposition-rejects-guls-call-for-consensus-on-the-kurdish-question/

May 20, 2009
Levon Ter-Petrossian’s – Mayday, Mayday

May Day is a pagan ritual which marks the end of the colder winter half of the year in the Northern hemisphere, and it has traditionally been an occasion for popular and often raucous celebrations – ‘regardless of the locally prevalent political establishment’. But not for Levon Ter-Petrossian, his Mayday was more akin to the Mayday associated with the emergency code word used internationally as a distress signal by ships and airplanes in radio communications; derived from the French venez m’aider, meaning ‘Come Help Me’; the Mayday used to signal a life-threatening emergency by groups such as police forces, pilots, fire-fighters, and transportation organizations – and LTP.

Yesterday, LTP’s Armenian national Congress (ANC) liner was visibly in distress, suffering relentless buffeting from an Armenian regime which terrorized and killed itself into office; which runs a state-imposed lawless society, holds democratic opposition supporters in prisons, and bullies and beats correspondents who try to tell the story. LTP has finally been trumped by the ‘Flying Ace’ which Kocharian has for years kept tucked up his sleeve and which Sargsyan now flaunts with his international partners-in-crime; the ace of capitulation – on Karabakh and on Genocide.

Nevertheless, the regime had prepared well for a potentially massive turnout, which might have been the case. But, according to Levon Zurabyan, vehicles bringing LTP supporters to the meeting from outlying regions were turned back in traditional regime style by security services at the city limits brandishing automatic weapons. In contrast, outgoing vehicles were encouraged to take their Mayday holidaymakers to tend their plots of land in the countryside.

So LTP had fewer passengers than for previous voyages, with the business class notable in its absence. They are distancing themselves from LTP and jumping off his democracy liner, now looking for a Sargsyan lifeboat, in the hope that after regime cronies have finished pillaging the multi-billion dollar [economic rescue] Genocide /Karabakh ‘Sell-Out’ package, the leftovers will help to rescue their small and medium business enterprises. The three thousand or so economy class passengers left on board were seeking cover in whatever sheltered place they could find, realizing they were doomed to go down with the ship and its captain. Riot police were on display in abundance as usual, with bus loads of reserves waiting in the surrounding streets, to make sure nobody jumps ship.

The Turkish press was eager to quote the international AFP, which rushed to report on how LTP announced to his 3,500 supporters that he and his Armenian National Congress are “in favor of the soonest settlement of Armenian-Turkish relations and is ready to support all positive steps.” On this occasion, the Armenian press came to rescue, with Onnik Krikorian, one of Armenia’s last ‘independent’ photo-journalists, using his Global Voice to report the truth of the matter and including the following:

“In a damning indictment of Armenia’s rapprochement with Turkey, opposition leader Levon Ter-Petrosian accused President Serzh Sarkisian on Friday of scuttling U.S. recognition of the Armenian Genocide and gaining nothing in return …… We are left to conclude without the slightest exaggeration, that for the sake of prolonging his rule, Serzh Sarkisian has literally ‘Sold Out’ the Genocide. “His next step will undoubtedly be a ‘Sell-Out’ of Karabakh, after which he will become the first Armenian to win the Nobel Prize.”

Unfortunately there is now little hope for an LTP rescue effort, a multi-billion dollar carrot, backed by the power of the international propaganda machine, has succeeded with its ‘Weed Revolution’ for Armenia.

The international community has happily fallen for the Kocharian / Sargsyan ‘Flying Ace’, hailing marvellous Sargsyan achievements with Turkish and Azerbaijani relations. The European Union started the bidding and gambled the virtues of democracy, the rule of law and human rights. But realizing that Sargsyan was not fooled by the bluff, it instructed PACE to throw in the hand, and they joined Sargsyan as co-conspirators.

America then upped the anti with a billion plus dollar cash WB/IMF bet, a calculated bid to draw the ‘Flying Ace’ and knowing it had a win-win situation. Upping the stakes would either call the Sargsyan bluff, with the US collecting the pot, or US losses would be recouped by Obama reneging on his promise to recognise the Armenian Genocide on the 24th April.

Moscow put in its half billion dollar bid in typically shrewd Russian style, reminding the Armenian party that in the event of losses, they would be covered by previous Russian / Armenian agreements. Turkey and Azerbaijan stayed in the bidding with promissory notes, watching the major players jockey for position. Then the US threw in its billion dollar hand and Obama reneged on his Genocide promise as planned.

The players have been at the table for months on end, each ready to back out in return for resolving its problems in the Caucasus. The EU and the US were happy to cut and run to leave the three former Soviet players to finish the game, each hoping that Turkey, which has been picking up strong cards along the way, will not come up with a hand to trump them all.

Armenia still has a better-than-even chance of raking in the entire multi-billion dollar pot; all it has to do is to call the Turkish Azerbaijani bluffs and pick the right time to throw down its Karabakh card. The Republic will then be endowed with an internationally installed bandit regime, which for many generations to come will dictate life in Armenia – and all for the sake of a treacherous Armenian capitulation on Karabakh, which unfortunately included an even more shameful ‘Sell-Out’ of the Armenian Genocide.

In typical style, whilst Diaspora Armenians have been lobbying overseas, Armenians in the Republic have been subserviently watching on as this process moves into its final stage. The fifty or so thousand Karabakhis are up in arms, determined to defend their rights in the light of this Kocharian / Sargsyan ‘Sell-Out’. But there is little hope that they will be able to stop the capitulation roller-coaster, when Armenia’s regime unilaterally withdraws its troops from five of the surrounding territories, egged on by Bryza and his Minsk associates and rubber stamped by the EU.

The tale goes that when the Azerbaijani Defense Minister asked his President if he was prepared to take Karabakh by force, Aliyev answered – “Are you crazy, there are fifty thousand of them”. The Defense Minister answered but we are a country of eight million and our army is several times larger in number than the entire Karabakh population and we have spent billions of dollars on the latest military equipment. Aliyev replied: “But two Karabakhis took over Armenia single-handed and now they own the Republic. Imagine what fifty thousand of them will do to us!”

After the Sargsyan ‘Sell-Out’, Turkey and the rest of the international community will be pleased that that anecdote is now the reality. Unfortunately, it is the reality with which Armenia now has to live – and Armenia, you can blame absolutely nobody for it – except yourselves.

May 4, 2009
Turkey – Only in a Tank!
That was the retort from a leader of one of Armenia’s coalition parties, when in 2004 he was asked whether Armenia should resolve its differences with its western neighbor; the person who promised to release details of his 2004 Parliamentary Commission studies of grants, credits and humanitarian assistance, former Deputy Speaker of the Armenian National Assembly, Vahan Hovhanissian.

In 2004, Vahan Hovhanissian’s Parliamentary Commission found corruption worth $200 million dollars, at a time when the total Armenian state budget had just increased from $400 million to 600 million dollars. But he reneged on his promise to release the details to the Armenian people, so his rating plummeted and the party’s reputation suffered another setback. The Dashnak Party had long been hanging on to Kocharian’s apron strings, so Hovhanissian was put up as Republican Party fodder in the 2008 Presidential election to allow the apron to be passed on to the Dashnaks arch enemy Serzh Sargsyan.

Vahan has since parked his tank, and together with his fellow party leaders, for the past few months he has been sneaking toward the Turkish border, ‘Cap-in-Hand’, eagerly awaiting his pickings from the compensation package Sargsyan and Nalbandian have negotiated for their ‘No Pre-conditions’ capitulation with Turkey.

That was until the 27th April, when Dashnak Party leaders eventually decided they could no longer stay in Armenia’s Government coalition, ostensibly betrayed by their leader, Armenia’s President Serzh Sargsyan.

Vahan Hovhanissian, Armen Rostumian, Kiro Manukian, Hrai Karapetian, and other Dashnak Party leaders have long known of the deal their President and his MFA Nalbandian have been clandestinely negotiating for Turkey to open (or maybe not to open) the Armenian border. But they have been silently sitting back and waiting for the ‘No Pre-conditions Roadmap’ to be finalized. Public knowledge of a signed 22nd April ‘Genocide Sell-Out Memorandum’ was the straw which broke the Dashnaks party back in the Sargsyan coalition; they could no longer reasonably explain their collusion in such treachery, especially with such opposition outrage and probably under pressure from Genocide lobbying Dashnaks in the Diaspora.

But with regard the signed memorandum, the Dashnaks should not blame their President Sargsyan, the blame for that has to go to America’s President. Assurances of a ‘warming relationship with Turkey’ would no longer hold water for the honest and well-intentioned Barac Obama, not even from the President of Armenia. Only a signed document would have sufficed for him to renege on his Genocide promise to the people of Armenia, so that is what he and his administration demanded – and got.

The signed document came in the form of the Nalbandian – Babacan ‘No Pre-conditions Roadmap’, which officially remains under wraps. But snippets of the details can be found through Turkish, Russian or other international media, even Azerbaijan – but certainly not from Armenia.
- First non pre-condition: Armenia will agree to Turkey’s commission, or a number of commissions, to study Turkish / Armenian affairs, not excluding Genocide.
- Second non pre-condition: Armenia will ratify the Kars agreement of 1920, formally withdrawing claims to historic Armenian lands in the east of Turkey.
- Third non pre-condition: Armenia will agree to Azerbaijani demands on Karabakh, including withdrawal of troops from the surrounding territories.
- Fourth non pre-condition: Armenia will not have an embassy on Turkish territory, but diplomatic relations will be conducted through Tbilisi.
- Fifth non pre-condition: Turkey will determine if and when the border will be opened, possibly starting with one day each month.
The Nalbandian – Babacan ‘Roadmap’ will no doubt motor on unhindered by the Dashnak Party departure, and Armenia’s coalition will probably be more relieved than distraught by the Dashnak Party loss.

But whilst the Dashnaks did little good in the coalition, they could well do considerable harm out of it. If the Dashnak Party effort goes towards regulating the out of control Sargsyan regime, then there may be the hope of a better future for Armenia. But if the Dashnak Party continues collaboration with its Kocharian / Sargsyan mentors, and its capabilities and influence are directed toward frustrating the efforts of Armenia’s only real opposition leader, Levon Ter-Petrossian, and his National Congress, then the Dashnak Party will seriously harm the chances of a more democratic future for the Republic and add yet another disgrace to its already badly tarnished reputation.

Bruce Tasker
Armenian Parliamentary Analyst
April 28, 2009
Armenia’s Dashnaktutsiun Party leaves Government coalition

Could it possibly be true that Armenia’s Dashnaktutsiun Party has decided to leave the Government coalition and join the opposition?

PanArmenian reports that that was the only issue on the Dashnaktutsiun 25th April agenda, when the party apparently also resolved to resign from their ministerial positions. If so, this is a decided blow to Armenia’s President Serzh Sargsyan’s plans to continue along his ‘roadmap’ with Turkey, and could even mark the beginning of the end for his illegitimate regime.

The Armenia / Turkey dispute must of course be resolved as should the Karabakh issue with Azerbaijan, but the clandestine manner in which the process has been conducted by the Armenian authorities to date has been absolutely unacceptable. If this article can be believed, it seems the Dashnaks could have decided enough is enough.

PanArmenian is however an Armenian state-backed media organization, so this information could simply be the Republicans throwing a cat amongst Armenia’s already flighty opposition pigeons, to buy time whilst Sargsyan and Nalbandian crawl their ways out of the political ‘roadmap’ fallout. That could well be the case, as PanArmenian also released an article “ARFD to launch an internet protest campaign against Armenian-Turkish agreement”, which actually refers to a petition published, not by the Dashnaks, but by the highly popular Canadian Diaspora website ‘Keghart’.

April 26, 2009
Has Turkey Traded Genocide for Karabakh?

With Turkish / Armenian negotiations reaching a peak, the focus of attention is moving from the wider debate to petty bickering over who said this and who said that, the inevitable outcome of a process in which a country’s leaders discuss fundamentals of agreements with their international counterparts then hide the truth from their domestic audience. The Armenian negotiating parties, President Sargsyan and MFA Nalbandian, have unashamedly deceived the Armenian public with respect to their year-long negotiations on Karabakh and Genocide. Today, they would have the Armenian public believe that Turkey has suddenly introduced pre-conditions for opening the border, an untrue statement and particularly alarming as it came immediately after discussions with the US President in Turkey, which surely must have led to a common understanding between Turkey, Armenia and the US. True, the Turkish side did change its position after Obama’s trip to Turkey and re-introduced Karabakh as a pre-condition. But in contrast to Armenia, Turkish reports on its position have been consistent, in Ankara, in Baku and in Yerevan.

Turkey resolutely denies that the hostilities involving the slaughter of Armenians in the early 20th century amounted to Genocide and each year it spends considerable resources to defend its position, especially in the US. This year Turkey’s leaders spent several months and went to extraordinary lengths to avoid US recognition, realizing the new US President and most of his senior administration supported Armenia’s claim of Genocide. That is understandable from a Turkish perspective. But it is disturbing that the Armenian negotiating parties have not added their voices to the Armenian lobby for the US to recognize Genocide, but understandable, as US recognition would put a stop to the plan they have been doing all they can to keep from the Armenian public. Sargsyan and Nalbandian have been ‘warming to the Turkish proposal to establish a commission of historians’ and they have said so on several occasions, not for the good of the Armenian Republic, but in pursuit of personal gain.

On April 6th and 7th, Turkey was host to the US President, first in Ankara then in Istanbul, hailed as the highlight of Obama’s European tour. Several weeks prior to the Obama visit, Turkey announced that it had removed the Karabakh issue from its list of pre-conditions for opening the Turkish / Armenian border, seemingly infuriating Azerbaijan, but clearly a tactical move to demonstrate Turkish acquiescence in a ‘warming relationship’ with the Armenian administration and part of Turkey’s concerted effort to avoid what seemed to be an inevitable US Genocide recognition. The Obama trip went according to plan with the US and Turkey singing each others praise. But for Armenia, whilst Obama confirmed his personal position had not changed, he avoided using the word Genocide.

Armenia’s MFA Nalbandian decided not to travel to Ankara to meet with US President Obama on the 6th April as planned, but he eventually managed to find time on April 7th in Istanbul. He returned to Yerevan bristling with confidence of an imminent border opening and assuring the Armenian public that he and his President would do nothing to jeopardize a possible US recognition of Genocide. In fact, they had already done their damndest to jeopardize a possible US recognition of Genocide, they had announced that negotiations with Turkey were developing well and they anticipated an early opening of the Armenian / Turkish border – possibly in April. Under these circumstances it would have been confrontational for Obama to talk about Armenia’s ‘Genocide’ in Turkey and he would have been blamed for spoiling the Turkish – Armenian reconciliation process.

Nalbandian had barely finished his press conference in Yerevan, when Turkey announced in Ankara, Baku and Yerevan that it was to re-introduce Karabakh to the border-opening list of pre-conditions, a seemingly provocative move, especially after the Obama visit and only two weeks prior to a much anticipated 24th April Obama declaration on Genocide in the US. The Turkish move completely contradicted Nalbandian’s statement, plus many such Nalbandian statements in the run-up to Obama’s trip to Turkey. Sargsyan responded in Yerevan, accusing Turkey of suddenly introducing hitherto unknown pre-conditions, although pre-conditions have been known and documented throughout the nearly year-long negotiation process, and neither Sargsyan nor his Minister of Foreign Affairs had ever explained in Armenia how they had been resolved. However, the ‘newly introduced pre-condition’ did not dampen Sargsyan’s enthusiasm and he re-confirmed he would be travelling through the newly opened border on his way to watch football in Turkey this October.

From this somewhat implausible chain of events, it is presumably to be believed that President Gul had a change of heart after negotiations between President Obama and Armenia’s MFA Nalbandian; that he decided to slap the well-intentioned face of his most powerful strategic ally by revoking on this critical and most sensitive of issues. If true, that would surely invoke US recognition of Armenia’s Genocide on the 24th.

Of course not, Turkey’s President Gul would never concede on the Genocide issue, knowing that 90 percent of the Turkish population is opposed, and at a time when his ratings had plummeted in a keenly contested democratic election. The conclusion can only be that Obama left Turkey thankful and relieved that Turkey and Armenia had agreed to resolve the Genocide issue between them, through Turkey’s commission of historians, or some other such mechanism. Armenia’s President Sargsyan is on record as saying he has no ambitions with regard the historic Armenian lands in the eastern part of Turkey, so only the Karabakh issue needs to be resolved for him to travel through the border in October this year, and Bryza’s opinion is that Karabakh will soon be resolved.

Armenia’s former President Kocharian has been preparing his deal on Karabakh for several years, held back firstly by the lack of an acceptable Azerbaijani compensation package, and secondly his nerve to commit to the deal, knowing he would face the backlash from an angry Armenian public. Kocharian waited his time and supported Sargsyan as his successor on the understanding that Sargsyan, when President, would go through with the agreement he dare not sign.

However, in the same way that Turkey would never withdraw its support from Azerbaijan with regard Karabakh, Azerbaijan is equally committed to supporting Turkey on Genocide. In July 2008, seeing that Sargsyan was determined to finalize the Kocharian deal on Karabakh, the Azerbaijani / Turkish allies joined forces and threw Genocide into the equation, knowing the self-imposed illegitimate Sargsyan regime would jump at the chance of adding to the package of compensation it was demanding in return for one of Armenia’s very few state assets left after Kocharian’s eight years of pillaging – Karabakh.

In August 2008, the Georgia conflict prompted Moscow to force the pace of negotiations, so Medvedev dangled a $500 million carrot; then the World economic crisis presented the opportunity for the US to throw a billion or so more dollars into the pot, conveniently facilitated by the World Bank and the IMF. Now half the World is on tenterhooks, waiting the next episode in this most unsavory Caucuses conflict resolution saga, which is due this 24th April in New York.

The Kocharian / Sargsyan Karabakh ‘Ace’ has already been played several times with the EU and PACE to chock up the illegitimate Sargsyan Presidency. Soon it will be played for the last time, to draw massive compensation in return for a beneficial agreement for Azerbaijan on Karabakh and for a Turkish commission of historians to finally eliminate Armenia’s claims of Genocide.

Turkey and Azerbaijan will have solved their longstanding problems with Armenia, the US will have been relieved the burden of Genocide recognition, Russia will see additional political clout and economic benefits in the Caucuses, and the Sargsyan / Kocharian regime will have a compensation package worth several billion dollars.

The vast majority of Armenians will be hoping that the US president stands by his promise and formally recognizes the Armenian Genocide this 24th April; in the longer term it will be beneficial to all parties concerned. Otherwise the Kocharian / Sargsyan regime will be having to cope with the backlash in Armenia, after having sold Armenia down the river with their ‘Karabakh / Genocide Deal’.

April 20, 2009