Greek Cypriot Leader N. Anastasiades with J. Kerry in New York
IF THERE was one conclusion to be drawn from Nicos Anastasiades’ visit to New York for the UN General Assembly meeting, it was that he would soon be called to make very difficult decisions. The type of decisions that no Cypriot politician has dared to make in the past, because these require going against the tide, battling long-held political beliefs and prejudices and taking on powerful interest groups. All opt for the least painful option of avoiding making a choice at all costs.
But this will not be an option in the coming months. The government will be forced to decide whether to accept the US invitation for Cyprus to become the superpower’s strategic partner and, more importantly, whether to agree to the peace deal that would allow this to happen. As we have written in the past, the US sees the island as an integral part of its strategic planning for the region but wants the Cyprus problem settled before it pursues its other plans.
Foreign Minister Ioannis Kasoulides, who was also in New York and met State Department officials, was very clear about Washington’s intentions. “For the United States, the settlement of the Cyprus problem constitutes an issue of priority, in combination with all other developments in our region, in which Cyprus has proved it can be an island of stability that they (US) need geo-strategically to bring peace to the wider region,” he said.
An indication of how much of a priority a settlement was for the US was that Secretary of State John Kerry made time to meet Anastasiades, on his arrival to New York last Sunday, to discuss the peace talks which are set to resume next month. Kerry, according to a State Department official, told Anastasiades that he intended “to become personally involved in the procedure and help as much as he could for progress to be achieved.” He was even prepared to visit the island if this would be considered helpful.
On Friday Anastasiades also met Vice President Joe Biden, who underlined the importance the US administration attached to Cyprus by visiting the island earlier in the year. Never before has such an interest been shown in Cyprus at the highest level of the US administration, which has also been in consultation with Ankara. The Cyprus government spokesman said, after the Biden-Anastasiades meeting, the Americans recognised that actions were needed to change the intransigent Turkish stance, even though the US ambassador in Nicosia said earlier in the week that a solution was down to the two sides.
One thing is clear. Anastasiades will be under tremendous pressure in the coming few months to take the big steps demanded by our strategic partner, while facing strong opposition on the home front. The tough choices will not be confined to the Cyprus problem. At some point he will also have to choose between the forging of strategic partnership with the US or maintaining the strong ties Cyprus has traditionally enjoyed with Russia, because it will be a case of one or the other. The world is splitting into two spheres of influence again and we doubt Cyprus will have option of having a foot in each one. This is a big dilemma, given the economy’s dependence on Russia but a choice will have to be made.
The government’s unprecedented step of consenting to the use of Akrotiri air-base as a launching pad for British air strikes against Islamic State positions is an indication that it is gradually aligning the island with the West. But this is just a step and many more will need to follow that will inevitably alienate Moscow, if it is too realise its declared objective of joining NATO.
Anastasiades will also have to persuade a stridently anti-West, anti-settlement political establishment – not to mention a financial sector dependent on Russian business – that the long term benefits of a strategic partnership with the US would far outweigh the short term problems that would inevitably be created. We are already seeing some of the benefits – the ENI-KOGAS drillship arrived at Block 9 and begun operations last week without any interference from Turkish ships.
This is the bigger picture that our conservative politicians and other opinion formers obstinately refuse to see, as they feel safe focusing exclusively on their small, inward-looking, never-changing world. It is up to Anastasiades to help us all see the bigger picture and move the country westward, but first he has to find the courage, which he has not displayed much in his presidency, to take these tough and difficult decisions himself.
Küfi Seydali
Comment (KS):
Greek Cypriots to decide; America or Russia?
Ini-Mini-Meini-Mo: Who is friend and who is foe?
Considering that Greeks accused and held America responsible for their 1974 adventure ( in fact they killed the US Embassador in Nicosia and the CIA-Chief in Athens), they are now considering a strategic partneship with America! What about Russia and the Greek Cypriot Communist Party? The Russians have been screwed and would not give any more money!! However, the game Anastasiades is playing is similar to that he is playing with Israel (also strategic partner!!), just because Turkey’s relations to both countries is rather strained. What Anastasiades seem to have forgotten is that he is a member of the EU, and needs the Troika and more money! What exactly makes South Cyprus suitable for a strategic partnership with America and/or Israel? Her economic standing (buncrupt) or her military might?