Month: December 2008

  • Turkey’s Religious Merchants

    Turkey’s Religious Merchants

    Newfound Riches Come With Spiritual

    Costs for Turkey’s Religious Merchants

    Lynsey Addario for The New York Times

    Ferhan Kadiroglu played with her 3-year-old daughter, Ayse, in their Istanbul home. Their family is part of Turkey’s powerful new class of wealthy Muslims.

    Published: December 25, 2008

    ISTANBUL — Turkey’s religious businessmen spent years building empires on curtains, candy bars and couches. But as observant Muslims in one of the world’s most self-consciously secular states, they were never accepted by elite society.

    Now that group has become its own elite, and Turkey, a more openly religious country. It has lifted an Islamic-inspired political party to power and helped make Turkey the seventh largest economy in Europe.

    And while other Muslim societies are wrestling with radicals, Turkey’s religious merchant class is struggling instead with riches.

    “Muslims here used to be tested by poverty,” said Sehminur Aydin, an observant Muslim businesswoman and the daughter of a manufacturing magnate. “Now they’re being tested by wealth.”

    Some say religious Turks are failing that test, and they see the recent economic crisis as a lesson for those who indulged in the worst excesses of consumption, summed up in the work of one Turkish interior designer: a bathroom with faucets encrusted with Swarovski crystal, a swimming pool in the bedroom, a couch rigged to rise up to the ceiling by remote control during prayer. “I know people who broke their credit cards,” Ms. Aydin said.

    But beyond the downturn, no matter how severe, is the reality: the religious wealthy class is powerful now in Turkey, a new phenomenon that poses fresh challenges not only to the old secular elite but to what good Muslims think about themselves.

    Money is at the heart of the changes that have transformed Turkey. In 1950, it was a largely agrarian society, with 80 percent of its population living in rural areas. Its economy was closed and foreign currency was illegal. But a forward-looking prime minister, Turgut Ozal, opened the economy. Now Turkey exports billions of dollars in goods to other European countries, and about 70 percent of its population lives in cities.

    Religious Turks helped power that rise, yet for years they were shunned by elite society. That helps explain why many are engaged in such a frantic effort to prove themselves, said Safak Cak, a Turkish interior designer with many wealthy, religious clients. “It’s because of how we labeled them,” he said. “We looked at them as black people.”

    Mr. Cak was referring to Turkey’s deep class divide. An urban upper class, often referred to as White Turks, wielded the political and economic power in the country for decades. They saw themselves as the transmitters of the secular ideals of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, Turkey’s founder. They have felt threatened by the rise of the rural, religious, merchant class, particularly of its political representative, Turkey’s prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

    “The old class was not ready to share economic and political power,” said Can Paker, chairman of the Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation, a liberal research organization in Istanbul. “The new class is sharing their habits, like driving Mercedes, but they are also wearing head scarves. The old class can’t bear this.”

    “ ‘They were the peasants,’ ” the thinking goes, Mr. Paker said. “ ‘Why are they among us?’ ”

    Ms. Aydin, 40, who wears a head scarf, encountered that attitude not long ago in one of Istanbul’s fanciest districts. A woman called her a “dirty fundamentalist” when Ms. Aydin tried to put trash the woman had thrown out her car window back inside.

    “If you’re driving a good car, they stare at you and point,” Ms. Aydin said. “You want to say, ‘I graduated from French school just like you,’ but after a while, you don’t feel like proving yourself.”

    She does not have to.

    Her father started by selling curtains. Now he owns one of the largest home-appliance businesses in Europe. Ms. Aydin grew up wealthy, with tastes no different from those of the older class. She lives in a sleek, modern house with a pool in a gated community. Her son attends a prestigious private school. A business school graduate, she manages about 100 people at a private hospital founded by her father. Her head scarf bars her from employment in a state hospital.

    Her husband, Yasar Aydin, shrugged. “Rich people everywhere dislike newcomers,” he said. In another decade, those prejudices will be gone, he said.

    The businessmen describe themselves as Muslims with a Protestant work ethic, and say hard work deepens faith.

    “We can’t lie down on our oil like Arab countries,” said Osman Kadiroglu, whose family owns a large candy company in Turkey, with factories in Azerbaijan and Algeria. “There’s no way out except producing.”

    Fortunes were made, forming new patterns of consumption. Istanbul, Turkey’s economic capital, is No. 4 in the world on the latest Forbes list of cities with the highest number of billionaires. Luxury cars stud its streets. Shopping malls, 80 at last count, are mushrooming.

    “Now, unfortunately, there is a taste for luxury, excessive consumption and comfort, vanity, exhibitionism and greed,” said Mehmet Sevket Eygi, a 75-year-old newspaper columnist, who has written extensively about Muslims and wealth.

    An Islamic concept called israf forbids consuming more than one needs, but the line is blurry, leaving rich Muslims struggling with questions like whether luxury cars can be offset by donations to charity, a central tenet of Islam.

    “You have money, but do you buy whatever you want?” said Recep Senturk, a sociologist at the Center for Islamic Studies in Istanbul. “Or should you keep a humble life? This is a debate in Turkey right now.”

    Islam requires that the wealthy give away a portion of their income to the poor. In the Ottoman Empire, it paid for everything from hospitals to dishes broken by maids in rich houses.

    Donations to Deniz Feneri, one of the largest charities in Turkey, jumped almost 100-fold in the six years ending in 2006, when they topped $62 million.

    Even house designs take charity into account. Mr. Cak described a multimillion-dollar house whose design included an industrial-size kitchen where food was cooked daily and distributed in trucks.

    Ms. Aydin, for her part, supports 25 families. The real problem is not finding a place to pray on a busy day out (mall fitting rooms work), but being truly charitable and putting others first when the frenzied pace of life pushes in the opposite direction. She holds onto traditions, like Muslim holidays, tightly.

    “The world is changing but I don’t want to lose this,” she said.

    Sebnem Arsu contributed reportin

  • Poor Richard’s Report

    Poor Richard’s Report

    POOR RICHARD’S REPORT                         

    Over 300,000 readers

     2009 Forecasts (Stocks, Bonds etc…)

    The word “billions” is being bandied around every day now. I would like to put this number in perspective before I start my market letter.

                       A billion seconds equals 32 years. A billion seconds ago puts us back to December 1977. A billion minutes ago Jesus walked upon this earth. A billion hours ago was the Stone Age and a billion days ago the earth was being formed. Now here is the scary part: our government spends a billion dollars in a little over 8 hours.

                     My point is that it is going to take a long time to pay down our debt. The consumer is tapped out and they can no longer use their home as an ATM machine. Bankers are worried about their jobs so they are not lending, despite what Chairman Bernanke is doing.

                       I have written in previous letters that we are fighting DEFLATION. Now the Federal Reserve has confirmed it. The best way to combat deflation is to spend huge amounts on many projects. I know that in Hartford, CT much of the inner city’s sewers are brick lined causing cellars to flood after many heavy rains. The problem with this spending is that only 6 cents for every dollar appropriated by the US Government gets to the public within the first year. If the St. Lawrence Seaway was proposed today it would take over 50 years just to get started after all the feasibility studies and lawsuits were settled.

                       Now that home prices are finding their proper level, homeowners are paying down debt to protect their family homestead. Any more rebates will be used to pay down various debts.  Dr. Bernanke has achieved a remarkable feat. The Federal Reserve has been trying to do this for over 35 years.

                   Government bond are yielding what they should.  They are perhaps too low, but they are now reflecting their proper market place. Government bonds are considered risk-less compared to other debt. The reason is simple, they are backed by the US Government and the government is backed by you and me. That’s right. That means us.

     US Treasury bills will trade in the area of .5% to 0%.  This depends on the perceived severity of our world problems. They will be used as a flight to safety.   The long bond, the 30 year Treasury, is now yielding a 2.54% return. As positive events unfold, the maximum yield for the foreseeable future should be at the 3.5% area.

                       The low yields will allow the government, states, and businesses to make long term commitments for basic projects and manufacturing plants. Don’t forget the oil industry either. This is a long term positive.

                       I expect the economy to take a deep dive in the first quarter, but because of our easy money policy, it may level out and gradually improve. It will be a decade before investors will forget about what is happening now. In the meantime, unheard of values will be sprouting like tulips in the springtime. Stocks will not recover as quickly though. The playing field must be leveled. A trader should be 100% cash. Long-term investors can cherry pick in there, because like some preferred stocks, the yields can be very enticing. Remember the rule of  “72”.  Banks operate under this rule also. Take 72 and multiply it by whatever interest rate you are paying and the answer is how many years it will take you to break even on your money.  A 10% rate will take 7.2 years. The average mutual fund is down 44% this year and that does not include the “management fees”. That means it has to move 81% before you can break even. A small (8%) loss can be made up easily. It will take less than a 10% upward move.

                       All debt will (and should) be priced off the comparable US Treasury bond. The higher quality will, and should, have a lower yield than that of speculative debt instruments.  Preferred stocks will have a higher yield and common stocks will yield greater because they are riskier than others.

                       My favorite investment now is AMERCO Preferred A. They own U-Haul and it is listed on the NYSE under the symbol AO PRA. The price at the time of this writing is $18.50 and the dividend is $2.125 and the yield works out to 11%. It can be called away from you at $25.00. If the stock is called away from you your gain will be approximately 30%. This combined with the 11% return cannot be beaten by a common stock in today’s environment. There are still too many investors who expect to invest by yesterday’s rules. They expect to recapture yesterday’s losses by brilliant maneuvers today. Thus, the stock market has not taken its toll yet. The second half of the down leg could be worse for aggressive traders, but values are there for the long term conservative investor with cash. 

                       The US Congress is going to go after the credit card companies by 2010, which will be two years too late. When inflation was first starting and government bond rates were soaring, investors could borrow at the maximum rate of 8% because we had usury laws. Back then they would turn around and buy a government bond yielding 10% and upwards. This was called disintermediation! We are now suffering under reverse disintermediation. It has to be stopped now. They should reinstate the USURY Law today. It used to be referred to as sinful. It is a simple case of money matters versus ethics. You decide.

              The weak dollar helps our balance of payments in the short run and is also positive for precious metals.

              The new SEC Chairman is Mary Shapiro, and there is much talk about her. I want to know what she stands for. I pray that she will bring back the uptick rule. If that was her first ruling the market would soar for weeks as the shorts sellers ran for cover.   I believe she could be positive for the market.

              Deutsche Bank has decided not to redeem its hybrid-capital bonds in January. Other banks might follow with their own bonds. Then again, the Fed might buy them. There is only one debt instrument whose terms are set in stone – US Government bonds.

              The price of oil will stay down for sometime because certain oil countries got too greedy – just like the consumer- and now need every penny they can get. So OPEC can make lofty statements about the price of oil, but certain members and non-members are cheating to “beat the band”. Cartels never last. This could be the year they bust.

              Money market funds will soon disappear in favor of Savings Banks provided they adopt some of the favorable aspects of the funds. No waiting period comes to mind.

              Sub-prime crisis will be fading into the woodwork and it is more than likely that Adjustable rate mortgages will be adjusted downward. The real subprime disaster can be avoided if the banks which did it -eat it.  Enough said.

              THE BIG UNFORESEEN FOR 2009 WILL BE PAKISTAN.     

              Pakistan is a democracy that cannot work because half of the population is in mountainous areas whose tribes belong to ethnic groups in bordering countries. They have Afghanistan to the north and Al-Qaeda seeking safety in their territory. It is like a giant Capture the Flag game. Then, tucked in the southeast corner they have Kashmir, which is seeking trouble between India. They both have Atomic bombs, but India’s work better. It is a rock and lots of hard places. President Bush had Iraq and President Obama might have Pakistan. We can not win a defensive war in Afghanistan. General Petraeus has a real challenge.

              In a crisis there are also opportunities. The free market system has been hit below the belt, but will recover because we are free people. When we make investments we know there are risks, and we can lose. This year we have lost.  The government must set up new rules and umpires to toss out the cheaters. There are banks that grew too fast by acquisition so that they could be “too big to fail.”  Well, they will fail sooner or later because the public knows or will find out and stop doing business with them. They will go where they are treated fairly and politicians who have treated us fairly will be returned to office.

            The Congress must separate brokerage and banking, but allow banks to form syndicates that can compete along with brokerage syndicates. We must not deny a revenue stream to one while favoring the other.

              Executive salaries should be based upon earnings. Year over year gains in earnings should be comparable salary. Declining earnings means a loss in wages. Credit should be given to shareholder dividends versus outrageous bonuses. It should not be how much money you make, but how good you are.

    There should be a global regulation body that would support the general market place with ethics and a passion to make money honestly. Members would be able to trade among them selves, but countries that break rules to suit their own purpose, like Russia, should be sequestered. It should be a private club. Membership based upon integrity and honor.

    Now the real scoop on our next President: on January 21, 2009, please attain a copy of his inaugural address. Then underline every theme and idea he presents. This is his utopian moment and he wants the whole world to know what he stands for. The problem is that many will not listen.

               When events happen and the press wonders what he will do; just go back and reread his address. There you will find the answer. This has worked for every President that I have studied since JFK.

    Cheerio!!!

     

     

    Richard C De Graff

    256 Ashford Road

    Eastford Ct 06242 

    860-522-7171 Main Office     

    800-821-6665 Watts

    860-315-7413 Home/Office

    [email protected]

     

    This report has been prepared from original sources and data which we believe reliable but we make no representation to its accuracy or completeness. Coburn & Meredith Inc. its subsidiaries and or officers may from time to time acquire, hold, sell a position discussed in this publications, and we may act as principal for our own account or as agent for both the buyer and seller.

     

     

     

  • Alex Pisman: “Azerbaijan must not lose in information war with Armenia”

    Alex Pisman: “Azerbaijan must not lose in information war with Armenia”

    The book of Azerbaijani professor Rovshan Mustafayev “March of Death”, disсlosing the new facts about the crimes of Armenians against Jews was discussed in Israel, said Israeli historian, socialogical scientist and journalist, professor Alex Pisman, who wrote a reference to this book. (more…)

  • Day.Az releases statement about resentment of several public organizations of Armenia

    Day.Az releases statement about resentment of several public organizations of Armenia

    Several public organizations of Armenia appealed to the leading television companies of the country with the demand to include the Karabakh province of Azerbaijan not to the borders of the former NKAO, but along with other seven occupied regions of Azerbaijan. (more…)

  • TURKMEN TERRORIZED BY THE US FORCES

    TURKMEN TERRORIZED BY THE US FORCES

    TURKMEN TERRORIZED BY THE US FORCES
    Mr.Falah Hassan Younis is a Turkmen citizen and a member of the Iraqi Turkmen Advisory Council in Kerkuk who works as a Director of the sub district of Alaiyaziya which is a link to the Turkmen district of Telafer. Currently he is in charge of the district in the absence of its councillor.
    On the 25th of the December Mr. Falah Hassan Younis was summoned by the American forces for a meeting and Mr. Falah Hassan was obliged to attend at the request of the American forces. He attended the meeting with the US forces while he was accompanied by his bodyguards.
    During the meeting with the American counterpart his body guards were disarmed by the American forces as this was backed up by the Iraqi Turkmen Front representative in the Turkmen District of Telafer Mr. Nabil Harbu.
    Mr.Falah Hassan Younis and his body guards were physically abused and beaten badly by the US forces.
    Mr.Falah Hassan Younis and one of his body guards were detained by the US forces whereas the remaining body guards were released. Then both the body guards were handed over to the Iraqi forces in the city of Mosul. As the election approaches in Iraq, they would like to silence the voice of the Turkmen; various steps have been taken by Kurdish parties and American forces to do this.
    However, the Turkmen, Arabs, and Chaldo Assyrians had high expectations of the interim administration established after April 9, 2003. The Turkmen expected to see democracy, fairness, an end to discrimination, the right to self-determination and an end to violence. Unfortunately, the opposite has occurred regarding the human rights situation in Iraq, in particular concerning the Iraqi Turkmen. The Turkmen have been subject to campaigns by the Kurds and the American in Turkmeneli in an often more brutal fashion than carried out on Kurds by Saddam Hussein.
    The arbitrary arrests of the Turkmen citizen Mr. Falah Hassan Younis US force is a clear violation of human rights. They are still detained and being imprisoned by the Iraqi forces and no one knows where they are imprisoned. The most striking thing is that, the detainees have not been given any reason for their arrest and have not been given access for a lawyer.

    Turkmen of Iraq call upon the Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri AlMaliki, Turkish President Abdullah Gul, Journalists Union, all Iraqi and international organizations defending the human rights and freedom to move immediately to the authorities of the Iraqi government at the highest levels for the protection of the Turkmen, Arabs and Assyrian from the Kurdish and American oppression that are carried out under the pretext of fighting of the terrors.

    Mofak Salman
    Turkmeneli Party Representative for Both Ireland and United Kingdom
    [1] Turkmen: The Iraqi Turkmen live in an area that they call “Turkmenia” in Latin or Turkmeneli” which means, “Land of the Turkmen. It was referred to as “Turcomania” by the British geographer William Guthrie in 1785. The Turkmen are a Turkic group that has a unique heritage and culture as well as linguistic, historical and cultural links with the surrounding Turkic groups such as those in Turkey and Azerbaijan. Their spoken language is closer to Azeri but their official written language is like the Turkish spoken in present-day Turkey. Their real population has always being suppressed by the authorities in Iraq for political reasons and estimated at 2%, whereas in reality their numbers are more realistically between 2.5 to 3 million, i .e. 12% of the Iraqi population.
    [2] Turkmeneli is a diagonal strip of land stretching from the Syrian and Turkish border areas from
    around Telafer in the north of Iraq, reaching down to the town of Mendeli on the Iranian border in Central Iraq. The Turkmen of Iraq settled in Turkmeneli in three successive and constant migrations from Central Asia, this increased their numbers and enabled them to establish six states in Iraq.

  • Should Turkey Apologize To The Armenians?

    Should Turkey Apologize To The Armenians?

    Commentary

    Asli Aydintasbas 12.26.08, 12:01 AM ETISTANBUL–Should we apologize to Armenians?

    It’s almost a miracle, but I have somehow managed to avoid the “Armenian issue” throughout my journalism career. I never wrote a single column on it, even throughout the various diplomatic rows between Turkey and Armenia on whether or not the tragic events of 1915 were genocide.

    During the time I covered Washington for a Turkish paper, I stayed a dispassionate reporter as the Armenian Diaspora tried year after year to pass various U.S. congressional resolutions condemning the 1915 events–and Ankara lobbied hard to ward these off.

    The truth was, undeniably bad things happened in the Eastern provinces of the declining Ottoman Empire in 1915, but I had no idea whether or not they “amounted to” genocide.

    Depending on whom you believe, 500,000 or 1.5 million Armenians were either forcibly deported or coldly massacred, either during the chaos of a civil war or by an organized state campaign. The Armenians in turn either killed thousands of Muslim Turks in an effort to establish an independent homeland, or they were fighting a civil war of liberation.

    I am not trying to make light of the fact that this was a horribly painful episode, leading to the death of thousands of innocents. But today’s discussion is largely semantic–“genocide or not?”

    While most Turks are taught in schools that killing happened “on both sides” and do not believe their Ottoman ancestors committed the g-word, Armenians in the tiny modern Caucasus republic have built their national identity on the pain of genocide. It is to them what the Jewish Holocaust is to Israelis.

    But the reason I have so far avoided the topic was not because of an inability to face the past, but because I felt I never could do justice to the mountains of books, memoirs and historic archives arguing one side or the other. After all, plenty of Turkish, Armenian, American and French historians dedicated lifetimes to this debate.

    I, on the other hand, lacked that kind of attention span. At school, we were taught that the “so-called genocide” charge was trumped up by the Armenian diaspora because it was their raison d’être. Friends and family mostly seemed to think the Ottomans had committed some sort of “ethnic cleansing,” but that it wasn’t genocide. (Legally speaking, “war crimes” and “ethnic cleansing” do not necessarily mean genocide, the most heinous of all crimes against humanity.)

    During the time I lived abroad, I encountered plenty of Armenian resentment toward Turkey, but then again, I thought, “What’s new?” After all, neighboring Greeks, Kurds, Iranians, Arabs and some Europeans often seemed to hate Turkey, too! (Being the descendants of an imperial people is overrated on the karmic scale.)

    But not everyone in Turkey is willing to go with the type of “strategic ignorance” I have been carefully practicing on the Armenian issue. Recently, a group of 200 Turkish intellectuals signed an online petition “apologizing” to Armenians for their suffering at the hands of Ottoman forces during the First World War.

    It reads: “My conscience does not accept the insensitivity showed to and the denial of the Great Catastrophe that the Ottoman Armenians were subjected to in 1915. I reject this injustice and for my share, I empathize with the feelings and pain of my Armenian brothers. I apologize to them.” The name of the Web site translated into English is “weapologize.com.”

    Even with no mention of genocide, the short text hit a raw nerve with the Turkish public. Politicians lined up to condemn the initiative, while a group of academics and retired diplomats issued a counter-declaration, denying charges of genocide and asking for the Armenians to apologize for the murder of 38 Turkish diplomats in the 1970s by Armenian terrorists seeking revenge. “I find it unreasonable to apologize when there is no crime,” Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said. Spinoff Web sites are full of nationalist fervor.

    In clogged Istanbul traffic, an irate driver gave me his unsolicited view: “Excuse me, miss, but now they want to apologize to Armenians. I am a Muslim expelled from the Balkans when the empire collapsed. My family was annihilated. We lost all land and property and took refuge in Turkey. Who will apologize to me?”

    Another unsolicited response came over e-mail from the lady who had recently decorated our home: “I have no idea whom else we are supposed to apologize to. The Anzacs for the Gallipoli? The Greek, British, and Italian soldiers for having liberated our homeland [in 1923] from their invasion? Does anyone remember there were two sides to this conflict?”

    I ran into a senior diplomat at a funeral and he told me that neither the apology nor the counter-declaration rang the right tone. “They are both extreme positions and would encourage extremists on both sides.” In Turkey, the apology certainly created a backlash, while in Armenia, it is likely to encourage those who want to seek compensation and land from Turkey.

    So incendiary has the apology been that the Turkish President Abdullah Gül had to withdraw his initial support for the statement when he was accused of having Armenian blood. And Turkey’s military issued a statement condemning the apology, suggesting it would torpedo any possibility of rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia.

    It is difficult to tell if the online petition has actually lifted a taboo or reinforced it. For starters, Turks are never good at apologizing. With no exposure to Oprah and psycho-babble, anger is preferable to soul-searching in much of the Middle East. But even most liberal Turks I know hate the idea of an apology to Armenians, partly because it tacitly admits to genocide–something the majority do not believe happened.

    Of course Turkey needs to face its past and have a more open debate on the Armenian issue. But do you begin with an apology? I fear this would foment enough anger on both sides of the border to just about block any meaningful dialogue.

    Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink was assassinated by Turkish nationalists after he labeled the 1915 events a genocide. On the Armenian side, there are politicians who still have hopes of reclaiming land. In both countries, there is a potential climate of violence and, until that abates, an apology will just incite more trouble.

    I wish the petition Web site said everything that it did, but had stopped short of an apology. It would have more appeal here in Turkey. Rome was not built in a day and bridges between nations cannot be either.

    Turks and Armenians have a long way to go in overcoming hatred, and certainly setting history straight will have to be part of that process. But apology is not the beginning. Friendship, something we lacked for almost a century, is.

    If I could have my own petition, I would say to Armenians, “Friends, I feel your pain and am sorry for not recognizing it before. Let’s leave aside semantics for now and just meet.” And then wait for what they had to tell me.

    Asli Aydintasbas is an Istanbul-based journalist and former Ankara bureau chief of the newspaper Sabah.

    https://www.forbes.com/opinions/2008/12/24/Turkey-Armenians-genocide-oped-cx_aa_1226aydintasbas.html